Bred heifers

[cowman]

I was just wondering how much of a loss it is going to be for every heifer we bred this year? I know they were worth a whole lot this spring, before they were bred, it cost a lot to get them here and it will cost a pile to get them through to calving. Maybe if it rains next year they will pay. For the guys who are selling bred heifers this fall...how much do you need to break even? Will you do it again next year?

[pandiana]

I don't have an answer to this question but I thought I would give you another perspective from Harlan Hughes Determining the Economic Value of a Bred Heifer at www.ag.ndsu.nodak.edu/cow/handouts/ecvalcow.pdf . This point of view is based heavily on interpreting the cattle cycle. Unfortunately, I don't think it is that simple but...

[cowman]

I agree with Harlan Hughes' ideas generally and basically follow them. When we face an ugly drought like a large portion of the west is having it sort of goes out the window! I usually breed between 25-35 heifers for my own use but this year I could see the writing on the wall and only kept 8. I got aroung $1050/hfr. in the spring. If someone took them home and bred them they've got to have over $1200 to break even. I hear you can get pretty decent breds for about $1100. I've been pretty busy this fall so haven't got into the mart to see if this is factual, but if it is then someone is paying a lot of money to have the joy of running heifers!

[pandiana]

What value can one place on keeping your own heifers from cattle that you know vs unknown? In other words, keeping your own heifers where you know the parents, especially the calving ease sire and the health and nutritional status of the animal going into calving.
How does the fact that the North Amercian cow herd and the Canadian herd in particular has declined by as much as 20% per year for the past 3 years influence your decision to retain heifers, or should it? Assuming you could afford to keep heifers, would you expect to be able to recoup this premium?

[cowman]

Of course I'd like to be able to keep my own heifers. If I could just teach them to survive on willows and snowballs!
I think you made an error on the 20% per year decline thing.No way has that happened.
I think cows and heifers could be very high next year IF(and that's a very big if!) it rains. I guess if I could predict the weather I'd have it made!

[jmillang]

Pandiana I found this article in the Calgary herald website today, it illustrates the growth of the Canadian cow herd. http://www.canada.com/news/story.asp?id={136A3EB9-A89B-4D7B-83E1-8EBBEEFC6926}

Also you mention that the CDN herd has decreased some 20% I'm not sure where to find that number but looking at Canfax's and Stat Canada's numbers the lasat peak was 97 at about 13.4 million head, today they estimate the CDN herd around 12.8. There are no doubt areas that have seen decreases but all in all we are about even and on the way up (maybe)

[cowman]

I think this year we are on the way down. Alberta and Sask. produce the majority of the calves in Canada and with a fairly widespread drought and therefore a lack of feed the cow herd will shrink this year. I live in an area that would be considered "favorable" and yet most people are reducing their cows by 20-40%. No other option really. Also the collapse of the calf market has prompted a lot of people to pack it in.All you have to do is go to the auction mart and watch all the good heifer calves going to the feedlots and see all the good young cows going to the packers. There is no money in it anymore.

[vkoff]

When they are worth lots you want every one you can get when they are dropping you want none [massphyscology].Remember what the oat market was this spring and summer .Look now