The good, the bad and the ugly

[smcgrath76]

That is a great lesson and good reminder
Kato. Thanks.
I have run our numbers at 18% but not at
20...

[sagewood]

Kato, I am old enough to remember the high interest rates of the '80's and what it did to a lot of my neighbors, i.e. they lost their land and were forced into receivership--it was a nasty, ugly time and the lenders were mean-spirited and relentless in their attack on those in ag. who could not make the 20% interest payments and still stay afloat.

During the past month I have had the opportunity to talk to a lot of cattle people in AB. and while we like to discuss bulls and the upcoming calving season, many are asking the question 'when will this turn around'? Many of them, like you, do not have the luxury of 'time' left to make back what they have lost in these past 7 years. Many have told me this year is their last and some folks that I have known for years (and are younger than me by at least 10 years) have already sold out this year. They were out of feed and were not about to throw good money after bad, so just loaded up the cattle and headed to the local auction mart. The sad part of one sale was that the one open cow brought $50 more than the bred cows. These cows were all good Red/Black Angus with good genetics and always well managed and well cared for--they were not scrubs in any way shape or form. Even though many of these folks are in their mid 50's, they have all told me they are done--not going back into the business. I guess if enough of us shut down this year and sign off on the cattle business, it may help those who remain. At some point supply and demand have to take over--that being said--it seems if prices get too high the powers-that-be just import more U.S. beef and the price to the Canadian producer never improves. I understand that in some of the pricier downtown Calgary restaurants a good steak will set you back anywhere from $40 to $60...how is it that none of this huge cost never filters back to those of us at the farm gate. Personally, I think the cattle industry in Canada will never recover and years from now when the masses cannot afford red meat and it has become a great luxury, they will wonder what happened--those who can remember 'the good old days'will reminisce about cattle the way we talk about the huge herds of buffalo who used to roam the prairies. When I see the preoccupation the masses have with all things 'electrical' and the hysteria over what Hollywood and the tech industry are doing I wonder if the masses even care if they have beef to eat. I don't see a bright outlook for our industry, even if we get a loan/interest break--it is a stop-gap measure and I agree with everyone else who has said that people are tired of hearing about the beef industry woes and tired of hearing about us whine and ask for more breaks and handouts. To go out in a blaze of glory or with a whimper--that is the decision many of us need to make, and soon. It must be ground-hog day--depressing to think we will have six more weeks of nasty winter...

[perfecho]

Good post Sage.....forward to your MLA and opposition.

[perfecho]

Just a quick note with some after thought.....there seems to be "favorites" of the AB gov, I won't mention names, that will continue to do well. They seem to have a direct line to AG $, programs and available money. These people will survive and survive well. Is it because they are "forward thinking", in with the right crowd? Lobbying on their own behalf....where as the ordinary cowpoke has no voice?
Maybe it is meant to be?

[sagewood]

Perfecho, I do agree that some of that 'favouritism' does happen and will continue to happen, I doubt there is anything we can do about it besides change the government--but alas, the bureaucrats will continue on regardless of the change in tone of the government. I just listened with interest the interview with Shane Haney and Ryan Kasko after Kasko's trip to Brazil. He notes at the end of the interview that the 'big' operations who are managed from the cities and have investors seem to do well, but that there are thousands of subsistence people who barely eek out a living and hang on by a thread. This, remember, is in Brazil where the land is fertile and the seasons allow for many, many croppings and most of their cattle are grass finished. I suspect that if the truth were know from our government types that they will let the Canadian beef industry keep struggling until the weak die off and the 'progressive' or 'investor driven' businesses continue on while they controlling masses of acres of land either by purchase or by rental and those who wish to be in the cattle industry will work for a wage for these investors. At least that is the way I see the industry going. I hear a few rumours of 'quota-driven' type cattle operations. Whether this will come to fruition is anybody's guess--whether it will work for the beef industry as it has worked for the chicken and dairy people is also a good guess--it did not seem to work so well for the hog folks. I guess if the government finally throws their hands in the air and offers a buy out package for the beef industry, similar to what they did for the hog industry, it might be a way for the government and bureaucrats to get us out of their hair so they can concentrate on doing good deeds abroad. We are a dying breed and we have no clout with anyone anymore--sad fact of life in our industry and in Canada...

[kato]

Good posts! I can't add a thing to them.

I'm really looking forward to seeing that cattle inventory report, to see if it reflects what we all see out here in the real world. Maybe it will be bad enough to be a wake up call. Or a give up call??