carry over feed?

[wmoebis]

Hi guys I am looking at next years cropping options and don't see too many bright spots for cereals and concidering putting in more green feed.

I am not a cattle guy and was wondering what the carry over for feed looked like out there so far this year and what the markets might look like for next?

[kato]

Boy, tough question. A lot depends on where you are. Even in Manitoba there are huge differences from one part of the province and the other as far as demand and supply.

I would maybe talk to some local cattle producers or feeders first, and see if you can set something up before you seed. You don't want to get caught with bales you can't move. Oat bales don't keep as long as oats do.

[grassfarmer]

Impossible to predict - carry over will be non-existent in much of Alberta I would guess as there seem to still be a lot of people buying feed on a monthly basis. Carryover is less of an issue than moisture - that's the $million variable. If we get average or above average moisture this would replenish peoples supplies next summer and with the reduction in cattle numbers there might be more than enough feed for the remaining population. Tack on the usual variables that affect the grain sector with early frosts, hail etc and their might be a huge pile of cheap feed available next fall. Any way you look at it I would think there is less than 1% chance that feed will be as expensive next year as it was this time around.

[burnt]

This touches directly on my thoughts of this afternoon, but from a different angle.

I have been wondering why I am buying hay for my cows when they haven't pulled their weight around here for quite a few years.So they just might hit the road yet this winter.

So how does this connect to the above question?

There have been so many cows killed around here in the past couple of years that the hay market cannot help but be negatively affected by it.

Because if I sell my cows, I have a double impact on the market. Not only am I no longer buying some hay, I am putting way more back into the market than I previously took out of it.

Multiply that by the number of cow guys that have quit . . . although not all will sell hay, they will switch some ground to other crops.

[wmoebis]

I'm in west central Sask. 1000 miles from the port of Vancouver and 1000 miles from Thunderbay.

How does the song go "1000 miles from No Where". 80 miles to closest elevator and freight is dragging me down. I always figure there is crop failure somewhere and once she is on the truck it don't matter what direction she goes.

I am looking at carry over stocks because if there isn't any I could maybe look for cow people that might be interested in spreading out risk. Locals for sure would be first option but some times local market isn't big enough or risk is too high.

[perfecho]

Having to buy straw at $40-$50 a bale....hay at $100-$125. All of our grain went into silage, but still need bedding as we are currently calving. It's tough! Not much around....if we were not in purebred business and taken this long to get to where we are, my choices may have been different.
Not sure quite as many cows left as we fiqure, would be interested to see how many went through mart that the majors have on feed.

[per]

The feed business is pretty volatile. When you have a good crop most others do as well. Rats and mice enjoy year old feed so it is hard to carry to the next season. Us Alberta guys are reluctant to buy Sask feed on account of the rats and it is bulky and expensive to transport. If I were closer a deal before it is grown could be intriguing like you said sharing the risk. Too bad you don't have a big stack right now as it is going to come down to the wire for many of us this year. Grain is easier to put up and keeps better for future speculation.

[grassfarmer]

Perfecho I don't think the cows that the majors bought will be coming back into the herd. They would be bought to give them a supply to process from now on as the supply hits the seasonal low point. They don't need to run their own cows when they can get our calves for below the cost of production.

wmoebis, one thing working against your suggestion of getting a deal now with a rancher to hedge their next winters feed costs is that feed is record high now and most ranchers haven't enough money to pay for this winters feed let alone next years. If you want to lock it in at 2.5 cents/lb you might get some takers but hoping for much higher than that might be a tough sell.
These 6-7 cents/lb feed prices are financial suicide and I can't see guys signing up for them again.

[perfecho]

GF, tend to agree...but, have a buddy from the Westloc area who thought it would be easier to rent grass since so many had exited, only to find Nilsson's usually beat him. Know Nilsson's quite often rent land, have landowner watch over fences, minerals, etc. Would be interesting to know how much of this is done.

[sagewood]

wmoebis, take a look at the "Ropin' the Web' site on AB. Government website. Just Goggle Ropin'the Web and then go to the the bookmark 'General Store' and then into 'Hay Wanted' and then look at 'Hay for Sale'. There is one long page of 'hay wanted', there are pages and pages of 'hay for sale'. There are not a lot of cow/calf people buying hay--they are selling down the cow herd to meet their feed supply. One fellow I know in the Olds area who always bought his feed (for 35 years) decided to sell his cattle this year and get out of the business. He was not going to take any loss on cattle, even with the hope that supply/demand might increase the value of the cattle. With your situation, I think that unless you have local people willing to work with you on the green feed venture, you would be better off to continue to 'stick with the devil you know' and that is grain. As said in earlier posts, grain is easier to store for long term and more people would perhaps buy oats or barley from you from Man. or AB. as opposed to taking the chance that your green feed might have a rat infestation--especially if it is coming into AB. You might be able to store green feed for a couple of years if it does not sell for the price you want, but after that, it won't even be good for bedding. I have a neighbor who cut and baled a hailed-out wheat crop and he wants $80 a ton for the bales and to date he has not moved it and he is in the middle of a lot of herds of cattle both commercial and purebred. Nobody is going to pay $80 a ton for 'straw' or marginal feed with the prices that are currently available in the cattle industry. Don't know your operation for sure, but my thought would be put in the grain--if you have the overwhelming need to 'bale' something, try rye--lots of market gardens and gardeners or those starting trees love rye straw for mulching around plants to keep moisture in and stop weeds from growing..you might be able to find a market for rye straw closer to you in the Saskatoon or Regina areas. best of luck....