Sounds good

[ALLFARMER]

http://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/issues/isarticle.asp?aid=1000380945&link_source=aypr_CCAT &link_targ=DailyNews

[grassfarmer]

Sounds good, but a rather simplistic view of the beef supply/demand equation. If only it were as simple as cattle scarce = customer paying more for beef = increased returns for cattle sellers. Remember we are in a global market for beef and "free trade" prevails. What will likely happen if the N American cattle supply gets too short is that Cargill will ship just enough beef from their south American(or elsewhere)operations to keep a lid on any live cattle price here. It's happened elsewhere in the world and it will happen here.
I'm quite sure both packer and retailer will be happy to spin a tale to consumers about the shortage of cattle necessitating a rise in retail prices but I am not at all sure any of this would be passed back to cattle producers in Canada. When there are monopolies and no competition in processing and retailing why would they pass any of it on?

[jensend]

you have to figure your competition is the lowest cost producer in the world wherever that is this year. if falling cattle numbers meant higher prices we would have seen prices increasing dramatically by now. grassfarmer put it well - there is no incentive to share profits with producers.

[kato]

Before everyone jumps all over this, there are a couple of things to consider.

For one, is Argentina still off the export market? Last story I read said they cut off exports to maintain their own supply of beef.

Also, I read a story the other day that the big packers in Brazil have refused to buy cattle from ranches in a specific area because they were raised on cleared rain forest. I'm not sure about the details, but I'm sure it hurt somebody down there who is raising cattle. This sets quite a precident.

Third, is Australia still in a drought?

Fourth, the American cow herd is the lowest in history, which is the subject of the article.

Add low hog and chicken numbers to lower cattle numbers, and it can't all be bad news.

It's sure better than what's been going on lately. IMHO, it's a start.

[smcgrath76]

This is a pretty good example of what I
see as the difference between the cattle
industry and the food industry...
The closer you get to the end user, the
more opportunity for value added, premium
pricing and reasonable returns.

[ALLFARMER]

I just check on the TEAM website and Triple J web site. Apparently Brian Nilsson still has a plant to pay for.

In my opinion the cattle prices never change. Now if you look at the canola market in the last couple years it went from $6.20/bushel to now $10.20 thats a 40% price swing. So a 40% swing on a 1000 pound steer would be $1400/calf I could live with that....Ha Ha

[burnt]

It appears to me that the cattle "market" just does not work anymore. At least, not in the sense of price discovery.