Will Ranchers Be Holding Back More Heifers in 2010 - Herb Lock, FarmSense Marketing

[riders2010]

You're exactly right kato, the farmers are not gonna come back, generally speaking not many younger people are gonna think it "cool" to sit out all night watch for a cow to calf and heaven forbid have to stick your hand up the back end. Those days are gone, it's like grain farmers just look at the numbers of farms also less and less every year some say it is progress, but to what point? We see the big units cattle hogs grain all going down just as easily as the times when there were smaller farms also.
People are criticizing my view on here but we need to step back and take a look the entire farming industry is headed to a place where a handful of companies will not only control the up the line process but the actual farm level as well. That is going to have huge huge ramifications for consumers. The government agenda is to get rid of farmers and have less of us to deal with. We have to come up with some out of the box way to get out representation in the political scheme heard.

[PureCountry]

GrassFarmer quote - "I am on track to market $100,000 of meat direct to consumers this year and am already turning away customers whom I can't supply. I consistently bank $400 per animal above commodity fed cattle price after paying the processing and delivery fees and the consumer is still buying it for less money than at the store. Best part is the demographic of these consumers - nearly all young parents, eager to seek out beef they deem to be safer, higher quality and reasonably priced.
For anyone young and ambitious the potential is huge - some of the younger folks that can blog and twitter would be able to tap directly into this stream of consumers far better than a technically challenged oldie like me.
Funny how everyone in the "industry" dismisses this as minor, a "niche" market and something that will never support the number of cattle and producers we have in Canada. Newsflash guys - the current commodity system clearly can't support the number of cattle or producers either so why not consider an alternative that might just actually might work? We don't need big numbers of cattle we need big cattle profitability numbers." End Quote

Iain, this is one of the best rants I think you've ever come up with.

The rest of you - read it again and pay attention. THIS IS HOW WE WILL FARM IN THE FUTURE!!!!!! We will raise healthy, nutrient dense, SAFE food for local families, and they will happily pay for it. This is the farming of the future, for beef, for pork, for poultry, for vegetables, for fruits and yes, even for grains. We will be carrying several types of organic flour in our store when it opens next week, from rye to spelt. Any of you willing to change a wee bit and grow organic anything? If you are, there is a market for it.

There are opportunities abound for farmers right now!!! However, they are not at the ABP meetings, they are not at the CCA meetings, and they are not long term going to be in the auction markets. We have to take a hard look at what we do in this food industry, because times are changing.

If you think that things like grass finished beef, free range poultry, organic eggs and heritage vegetables are just for Planet Organic stores and New-Age Hippies, think again. It is going to be the mainstream in the near future for 2 reasons.

1) People want it.
2) Fossil Fuel Farming is not sustainable.

This is the kind of change that is good for everyone. Greener management practices, organic this and that, this is nothing new. This is the way farming started and evolved for thousands of years. We've just been sidetracked with chemical/petro based farming for 60 years. It's time to do it the old fashioned way, with the added bonus of some modern discoveries and inventions. It's the only way to truly grow food sustainably.

[PureCountry]

Forgot to mention, we are holding back alot of our heifers this year. Has nothing to do with calf prices, yearling prices, fat markets or any industry nonsense. It's based solely on the fact that we - like GrassFarmer - are seeing increases in demand for grass finished beef. With opening a store we anticipate more demand for our product, so we want to make sure we have the supply.

[kato]

I agree. I've heard farmer's markets described as a "sleeping giant" in the media. The media is correct. I'm at the market every week, and see it in person. People really do want to know where their food comes from. We raised a few meat chickens this year for ourselves this year, and just to test things out, I put a sign up at the farmer's market to sell a few spare birds. It took about 10 minutes, and one fellow took them all. I got requests for a couple of weeks after by people who had seen the sign, even though it was only up for 10 minutes. The demand is there. No doubt. More chickens next year.....

As for the beef side of the equation for our farm, Hubby has absolutely no interest in finishing cattle, or dealing with the public. It's just not his thing. In fact he really REALLY dislikes it. If we lived closer to a big city, I'd work on him to change his mind, but at this point, I don't see it happening. You never know though, he may change his mind some day. In the meantime I'll hone my marketing skills. LOL

I also agree with the unsustainability of large scale fossil fuel based agriculture. Bigger is not always going to be better. You hear people speak about "quarter section farms" with a condescending attitude. I don't remember back to the days when there was almost literally a farm on every quarter, but I do remember when there were a lot more smaller farms than there are now. One thing that comes to mind is how people on these farms reacted to market downturns. I think that back then market signals actually worked better than they do now.

At one time, prices would drop, livestock numbers would drop, and prices would come back up. The main difference between then and now is that at that time, a lot of people would cut back a bit, and now, a few people have to cut back a lot. Back then no one lost the farm over it. Today, in order to correct the balance, farms will be lost, and the skilled people running them along with them. And the really big ones, I'm thinking along the lines of million dollar hog barns for example, will not cut back production simply because they've got too much invested. When that happens, the market and supply balance does not exist any more, and you see the kind of mayhem that just took place in the hog business.

[kato]

As for heifers, we're trying to figure out a way to keep some and replace some of these old girls who've been hanging around longer than they should have. We'll not be expanding though. Just staying the same for now with any luck.

[riders2010]

The individual farm market idea is great, many people buy local from the farmer, don't want to start the argument but they do because of just as good if not better product than at the store and you know where it comes from etc. However we are a relatively small population the amount of downsizing would have to be huge wouldn;t it to get to a point where just enough animals for all to make a living at it? And in grains wouldn't take many farmers to supply the local grain requirements etc.

[burnt]

riders2010 - it will be interesting to see how close we are already moving down toward meeting domestic supplies only.

We have historically been heavily dependent on exports but with the shrinking cowherd, I think that balance will be shifting dramatically before this herd size stabilizes.

While producing only enough for the domestic market may sound like a good thing, I think it is a scenario that comes with its own Trojan horse.

That horse would contain the unhealthy dynamic of having no competition for our finished product, however tight the supply might become.

The consumers would be the losers for sure. The commodity beef producers would be just as well or poorly off as they ever have been with their prices only reflecting the usual, disproportionately small share of the retail value.

The winners would be those who are direct marketing since they would be in a position to capture full retail price plus whatever premium their product commands.

Meh, but that's my humble opinion only.

[grassfarmer]

Riders 2010, Is downsizing a bad thing though? If a cattle producer can make $400 an animal versus $50 he can sell 10 instead of 80 to get the same margin. Maybe instead of reducing to 10 he chooses to sell 20. He only maintains a quarter of the animals but nets twice the margin. Is that downsizing a bad thing? Who gets hurt by the downsizing? a couple of multi-national packers, some mega "captive supply" feedlots, auction marts, truckers, vets and other associated input suppliers. Sure there are some good guys in there but my priority is cattle producers because that's what I am. I don't think it need be bad for cattle producers.

[riders2010]

Good points grassfarmer and burnt, I maybe should not enter into these cattle conversations because not in the industry, I just see some simularities to the grain part. I am selfish somewhat I don't want the neighbors producing their product to quit they and you produce an excellent product that I enjoy greatly over the store stuff generally speaking.

But you guys would know more of the answer to this, so assume we are at the point of only domestic product, at that point market is only domestic the big processors exporters etc. out of business, the store price given to farm direct there has to be alot of room for the next guy to say hey I can do that for 350 and the next hey 300, so where does that end up throw in the store with foreign cheaper beef?

[riders2010]

I guess should be reworded what factor is the store with cheaper imported beef i'm sure they can lower the price alot for a long time to gain market control should foreign beef be limited etc?

[kato]

Foreign beef is the wild card. If our domestic supply dried up to the level needed for domestic markets, I'd bet we'd be down to one big packer in the West, anyway. Therefore lower prices. And if we did still have two packers, the stores would bring in foreign beef, therefore lower prices.

Some would say it's just as easy to import, but that's a road we do not want to go down. Quality, health standards, processing standards, and exchange rates would be all lined up and ready to cause problems. To say nothing of supply. If you'd have asked anybody in the beef business five years ago if the day would come when Argentina would stop exporting beef they'd say it was impossible. Never happen. Not in a million years. Argentina is the beef producing powerhouse that's just waiting to flood our market.

Not.

Argentina stopped exporting beef. Never say never. We've been lectured about how we're too dependent on beef exports in this country. That's nothing compared to the dangers of being dependent on beef imports. Or the lack thereof.

[DogPatch]

Agriculture (with Livestock) is finished in Manitoba. The government, so long as its NDP and voted within the Perimeter will continue to smoke the Grass, and listen to KD Lang, and whine about the green stuff on their Lakes. Once the pastures get overgrown and our Buddies start lighting fires again will they have another bitch about the fires in Rural areas.

But when we finally get ride the lame politicians, it will be too late for family farmers in MB.