Will Ranchers Be Holding Back More Heifers in 2010 - Herb Lock, FarmSense Marketing

[burnt]

Well from the tone this thread has taken it kinda sounds like not too many are planning to retain heifers this fall . . . heh,heh,heh.

[ProFarmer]

Had one neighbor retain 150 heifers for breeding. All sold and once they are fat in 90 days their heads will come off and the guts will be put into landfill..

[riders2010]

I know it's not an easy fix and it is a pretty basic simplistic way to view it, but with so many people going hungry well actually starving and considering the product produced here it's pretty sad to be talking how low the production can go and that it is a good thing. I still feel it represents such a complete political failure of our leaders and no this is not just aimed at the current gov. but none of them have or had a direction for anything in agriculture. Get the hungry in a position to buy our products man that would solve the need for any gov programs etc. The trade deals where companies here are exploiting the labour forces over seas paying them nothing so they can buy nothing is part of the problem. jmo We have gone way too far in all industries to support free enterprise to the point there is no competition, what is the difference between one or two companies that usually act together dictating the price you will get or a country where there is no free enterprise and some yahoo telling everyone what they will do or not yet filling his pockets. I know I'll get cut down but in my opinion we are a legislated legalalized dictatorship no different than the third world countries in many ways except the people skimming everyone else have a piece of paper instead of a gun saying they have the right to do it.

[grassfarmer]

I think talking about the country being a net exporter, supplier of domestic only or under-supplying the home market are academic as far as competition or higher or lower prices are concerned. When you get the processing industry down to so few players we are screwed anyway. Corporate processors and retailers almost world over have complete control of the supply chain and can manipulate it any way they want. The only way around that is to go direct from beef producer to consumer.

Riders2010 brings up good points - I have long felt it a disgrace that people go hungry while good agricultural land is underused or standing idle. The solution to this is not simple though - you can get food to ports in African countries only for it to lie there and rot. There are logistic problems of transport, political problems with dictatorships who are quite happy to let their people go hungry so they can live in a palace and have the latest weapons. There is no reason that people should be starving in Zimbabwe and needing food grown in Canada - Rhodesia used to be the breadbasket of Africa.
We have a grain based beef production system in north America which arguably is taking feed grains out of the mouths of starving while grasslands are used far below their potential. We have the ethanol insanity fueling the SUV culture with feed grains grown on good agricultural land.
I think we are very close to a total collapse in food supply - the dangers of a handful of companies controlling the worlds seed supply, controlling the shipment, processing and retailing of food. The rising world population, the apparently changing climate. I think we have built an elaborate deck of cards upon a foundation of un-sustainability and it won't take much to bring it tumbling down.

[burnt]

riders2010 - you hit the nail on the head, especially with your last statement about robbery being conducted by guns or pieces of paper.

Payday should be a happy day, but it often is not at our house when my sons come home from work complaining about the gov't taking over 1/3 of their paychecks.

It's all good I tell them because those deductions are funding those retired MP's big fat pension checks, etc.

I tell them to start building a bit of a herd with their money and they look at me like I'm crazy and walk away. No heifers retained here. Anytime soon.

But at least the complaining stops...

[greybeard]

Some very good posts made above. If nothing else it shows this board is probably more interested in cow/calf issues as Annie’s market updates don’t usually get much for comments.
I think the main point here is that regardless if there is finally some profit in cows if that is 25 or 50 or 75 dollars that is not going to save the one man operation in the commodity business. In a business that runs in cycles you need some years with relative windfall profits to make up for all those bad years. I think that is what most of us have been hanging on for and I think that was what Shaney kept hoping to hear when pointing out that the cow herd will continue to decline. $5000 profit per 100 hd is not exactly a windfall.
Some mention was made of technology not helping the cow/calf industry. When compared to the grain side, where direct seeding has probably allowed a father/son unit to produce 2 million in sales and participate in some windfalls due to much increased production at higher prices.
So will the cow herd ever decline enough to return the hundreds of dollars per head to make it profitable and return that $30000 cost of living and respectability to the traditional family operation?
Where do the hobby operations, from the mega large “image “ ranches to the 5 cow “big hat” guys fit in all of this?

[per]

Grassfarmer asked...

Where do the hobby operations, from the mega large “image “ ranches to the 5 cow “big hat” guys fit in all of this?

From a commodity perspective the outfits big and small that never really needed to make a profit to survive have been a huge problem to the industry. As far as large and medium commodity operations go, a value chain connection is essential to future prosperity and smaller businesses need to follow the GF path.

[grassfarmer]

Putting words in my mouth again per ;o)

[wauchope]

pretty simple to explain the cutbacks. there will not be enough young people coming into the business.
Land is expensive,cows and calves don't bring in enough money compared to the land value and machinery expenses either renting/custom/owning.
there is just not enough return as the interview stated. a profit of $ 50 or $100 you need a lot of cows if that is your sole income.
How many young people want to really do this because that will be the sole driving factor.I know only a few.
My son would love to farm but he told me no way is he raising cattle.my land will be returned to cropland ,even some of the poorest will be cropped.
A five year drop in numbers? Just the tip of the iceberg it is going to get far worse.and I have not even got into the crooked buyers and packers screwing the hell out of the cow/calf man.

[per]

You can still go down to the auction market and see exuberant folks that got $1.05 or what ever and are happy as can be. This year our commodity grassers brought the same as pre BSE when we were doing OK in the commodity end. Our expenses have gone up substantially since 2003 and there is the small issue of catching back up. Can't bring myself to be joyous about the commodity world in any form close to what it is. If the young guys want to be in the cattle business for the long run and be sustainable they need mentors that are sustainable in this environment today. I guess this is a challenge for those of us that direct market and have some sort of added value chain to help out the young guys so there is someone to utilize these natural resources.