1300 to 1600 for top young cows??

[ALLFARMER]

http://www.triplejlivestock.com/MarketCurrent.aspx

Thanks to the guys on here who said cow prices were going to jump!

I didn't figure they would but decided I better buy early to be on the safe side. I am sure glad I did.

Bought a couple weeks back for $1140/for delivered bred black angus heifers.

Looks like people are ready to get back into cows.

[grassfarmer]

Just like the stock market the smart money was made by the guys buying on the bottom not the top. Some of these $600 cows bought a year ago must have made some real money for their new owners. It's nice to see some of the guys selling now reclaiming some of the equity they have lost in recent years.

[kato]

Good news. I like the way they put last year's prices on the page.

Under the Industry Comments part of the page, there's some interesting things to read.

[riders2010]

Is there going to be young people get in at 1300 to 1600 a cow? or are the bigger operators taking on more? Is it wise for someone starting out to pay that much, we have seen how fast it can go to shit, you need the calf grow it and then sell it, lots of time for just that one cycle. How many would it take to pay for the 1600 cow?

[brian99]

Prices down for whatever reason this week. $1300 for the young stuff at the top. Saw a friend of mine buy 4 2nd calvers right at the end of the sale for just over $1100. i'm thinking it's just high volume. Lots of cows yet to come.

[kato]

I'd be interested to know how many of these sale cows are from dispersals. According to the local marts, most of the bred cows in this province that are for sale are being dispersed.

BTW, the marts are all booked up for the year.

[wd40]

Woopee the banks will open up their pockets and beg us to buy cows at $1600.

[greybeard]

Some of the lucky grain guys have big tax problems.

[ALLFARMER]

Ya the bankers are so smart, when I wanted money to buy $800 cows I got told there is no money in cattle. Now when the price is up a third no problem. Good thing I was persistant.

[smcgrath76]

Should read Alan Nation's column in SGF
this month. Basically he draws a
parallel to the sheep industry in the SW
US. He is saying that we have not
brought very many young people into the
industry, so as prices rise, instead of
triggering retention of heifers it may
trigger a faster exodus > larger
shortage > higher prices > faster exodus
> etc.
When you look at the last several years,
the current herd size and infrastructure
(packing/processing) and the
demographics he might be right.

[brian99]

There are some legitimate dispersals, but there are also some "dispersals" of put together cattle. Nothing changes there. I agree herds are getting larger. There used to be sheep, a few pigs, a few chickens, a few horses. All that is gone. Mixed farming is almost gone. Sad to see. Dr. Roger Epp from U of A Augustana described the food chain as "fragile" in the Alberta Beef Mag. Haven't read the article yet.

Interesting to note there were kill cows going for more money than some bred stuff in Brooks on Saturday. Saw the same thing creeping into Lethbridge yesterday. Hmmm, looks like guys are getting full. And kato is right. All the sales here were full as well. Special sale in Brooks today, 500 cows and 200 heifers from one outfit. Strathmore has a pile as well. Might go. Beats working!

[kato]

My thinking is that for a period of time after the prices are higher, there will be dispersals by a lot of producers who have just been waiting for a chance to recover some equity to get the heck out of the cattle business. How long that is, and how many cow herds will be shut down is anyone's guess.

As a group, we're getting older, and I bet lots of people who had been planning on retirement within the past seven years delayed it if they could. In the meantime, their children ran and didn't look back. If there was a chance before that they could hand the herd on to the next generation, it's going to be a tough sell now.

We're going to need high prices for a long enough period that confidence returns before we see any real growth, and any young people willing to take the chance. That could take some time. I know every time we read an optimistic market report we look over our shoulders for the next disaster to shoot it down. It's happened so many times since 2003 that it's still hard to believe things will get better. Face it, we've forgotten what good news is.

There's another dynamic that needs to be considered as well. How many bankers have been sitting behind their desks reading clients balance sheets and biding their time until they thought THEY could get some equity back? They do have a nasty habit of shutting things down the minute they think they can get out of it with some salvage value.

In the meantime, we'll all just take the money, and start chipping away at seven years of accumulated debt and delayed upkeep.

[greybeard]

You said it well Kato. The part about looking over the shoulder is what worries me. What can they trump up next to use for a trade barrier? It's to bad we can't have some way of saying if you didn't want it then you don't need it now.

[Ruken]

After 30 plus years of being involved in this cow industry and expecially after the last 7 years, i sure would be hard pressed to pay these big dollars for a cow or heifer. There are just to many external factors that can come into play that can cause the markets to crash. By external, i mean things that are beyond me and my control and things that are completely unpredictable. The cattle industry is a biologically based industry that is fragile in itself coupled by an politically driven market that in beyond this continent. It amazes me that people can see something that seems so obvious to me so differently.

[grassfarmer]

There is also the "price" and the "value" to consider and they are two different things. The first commercial cows I bought in this country were bought in Feb 2001 - and I paid $1600 for good young dispersal cows. Obviously most of their calves were sold through the lower price period but the cow's low feed requirements, performance and longevity was such that they were a much better buy than most I've bought since. I paid anywhere from $750-$950 pre and post BSE and never got nearly as good value for my money. Some cows bought in fall 08 at $480 were cheap enough that I could afford the sort on them. Cows bought at $600 last fall look to be the only ones that might rival my $1600 cows for long term profitability.