1300 to 1600 for top young cows??

[brian99]

There are some legitimate dispersals, but there are also some "dispersals" of put together cattle. Nothing changes there. I agree herds are getting larger. There used to be sheep, a few pigs, a few chickens, a few horses. All that is gone. Mixed farming is almost gone. Sad to see. Dr. Roger Epp from U of A Augustana described the food chain as "fragile" in the Alberta Beef Mag. Haven't read the article yet.

Interesting to note there were kill cows going for more money than some bred stuff in Brooks on Saturday. Saw the same thing creeping into Lethbridge yesterday. Hmmm, looks like guys are getting full. And kato is right. All the sales here were full as well. Special sale in Brooks today, 500 cows and 200 heifers from one outfit. Strathmore has a pile as well. Might go. Beats working!

[kato]

My thinking is that for a period of time after the prices are higher, there will be dispersals by a lot of producers who have just been waiting for a chance to recover some equity to get the heck out of the cattle business. How long that is, and how many cow herds will be shut down is anyone's guess.

As a group, we're getting older, and I bet lots of people who had been planning on retirement within the past seven years delayed it if they could. In the meantime, their children ran and didn't look back. If there was a chance before that they could hand the herd on to the next generation, it's going to be a tough sell now.

We're going to need high prices for a long enough period that confidence returns before we see any real growth, and any young people willing to take the chance. That could take some time. I know every time we read an optimistic market report we look over our shoulders for the next disaster to shoot it down. It's happened so many times since 2003 that it's still hard to believe things will get better. Face it, we've forgotten what good news is.

There's another dynamic that needs to be considered as well. How many bankers have been sitting behind their desks reading clients balance sheets and biding their time until they thought THEY could get some equity back? They do have a nasty habit of shutting things down the minute they think they can get out of it with some salvage value.

In the meantime, we'll all just take the money, and start chipping away at seven years of accumulated debt and delayed upkeep.

[greybeard]

You said it well Kato. The part about looking over the shoulder is what worries me. What can they trump up next to use for a trade barrier? It's to bad we can't have some way of saying if you didn't want it then you don't need it now.

[Ruken]

After 30 plus years of being involved in this cow industry and expecially after the last 7 years, i sure would be hard pressed to pay these big dollars for a cow or heifer. There are just to many external factors that can come into play that can cause the markets to crash. By external, i mean things that are beyond me and my control and things that are completely unpredictable. The cattle industry is a biologically based industry that is fragile in itself coupled by an politically driven market that in beyond this continent. It amazes me that people can see something that seems so obvious to me so differently.

[grassfarmer]

There is also the "price" and the "value" to consider and they are two different things. The first commercial cows I bought in this country were bought in Feb 2001 - and I paid $1600 for good young dispersal cows. Obviously most of their calves were sold through the lower price period but the cow's low feed requirements, performance and longevity was such that they were a much better buy than most I've bought since. I paid anywhere from $750-$950 pre and post BSE and never got nearly as good value for my money. Some cows bought in fall 08 at $480 were cheap enough that I could afford the sort on them. Cows bought at $600 last fall look to be the only ones that might rival my $1600 cows for long term profitability.

[smcgrath76]

We just bought some cows today in a
private deal, and I agree with much of
what you say GF. Value is a lot more than
just pounds for price, and it costs just
as much (or more) to feed a poor cow as a
good one, so you might as well focus on
having good ones...

[smcgrath76]

Oh yes, and if anyone is looking for 20
good red cows in their prime producing
years, let me know. There are still 20
left.

[SADIE]

There are many philosophies out there when it comes to a man's cow herd. Here is what I learnt from the beef cattle clients I served for 20 years in east central Alberta.

1)Have a plan---a long term plan and try to stick to it. That said this likely was difficult to adhere to over the last 8-9 yrs.

2)I only buy replacement bred heifers from a reputable breeder to keep my herd young and uniform. Black, Red ---try to keep a uniform herd and avoid impulsive purchasing.

3)Buying the bred heifer is the only way I knew the true age of the cow. One client I worked for---The $$$ you pay for that replacement bred heifer or open heifer can grow into her value.

4)Sean at Saskatoon Fall Fair in November you saw 5 pens of Sim/Angus F1s from one of the most reputable commercial breeders throughout western Canada. I started buying F1s in 2002 and go back every year purchasing between 10-15 per year. They are home raised Rd Angus bulls on Simmental (Fleck)----This operator has a regular clientelle. The 5 pens of 3 sold at $1700, $1650, $1675 , $1650 & $1625. Three regular clients purchased. I got one pen and that enabled me to get to the farm for another 5 head @ $1500.00 which I picked up in December.

When you look for quality bred heifers---you can wear out a truck and spend alot of time looking across the country.

The cow business we all agree appears to have turned around at least for a short time. To have a uniform cow-herd that is a cross bred operation is tough to achieve and maintain. The steeres go out in Dec and the open heifers are sold in April going to grass replacement female sale.

In the tough years following BSE the top pen of 10 bred heifers have sold from this herd at a high of $1850---I let them go to Quebec bought was able to purchase for $1050, $1400, $1500 and $1625 in the 2009 agribition sale. Never a calving problem when buying from a reputable breeder and the bull power used on the open heifers that are for sale----Great punch.

[smcgrath76]

Sadie, they are good cattle that I saw. I
think more people would buy replacements
rather than raise their own if they could
source high quality from the same breeder
consistently over time. The best cattle I
see in my travels are from folks who stay
home and work at it and don't get pulled
into the fads and fades.

[SADIE]

Sean

I agree with you. I saw some great herds when I was practicing. They were stay at home people and worked their herds and tended to business.

I think you can agree that there is never enough of those good "quality type replacement animal" that comes up for sale.

I had the privilege of preg-checking at 3 different auction markets. Bred heifers--tough to find the good ones that are not just heifers. Bad experience with these makes people back off from buying bred heifers.

Herd dispersals---they are great but many dispersals the owner has been planning on selling for a few years so heifers were not kept back and that dispersal sale has the older and maturer type that sell.

If you are buying replacement females---to source your type, your quality and can reach into a breeding program of a herd that is reputation cattle herd---you are in a fortunate position.