Cow Herd Smallest Since 1958

[grassfarmer]

Sorry FS, wasn't meant to be BS. It was a typo that turned 76,400 into 764,000.
If it is so clear cut that there will be no import permits above that, or even demand for them why did the ABP not declare the resolution regarding this very issue redundant?
They are usually quick enough to vote resolutions redundant seems they missed this one according to you.

[wd40]

If all your numberts are true, how much export did CDN do through 2010. Live and boxed.

We have the largest empty pen capacity in the feedlots ever.

Why?

[kato]

Why? It's all too simple. Because the cow herd has been shrinking and the feeder supply has been shrinking with it.

No cows = no feeders.

As I've said in the past, when the cow calf producer is forced out of business, the feedlots will be next. It's not like they can run across the border and get American calves either, because the same thing is happening there. The worst part is that it will most likely be the independents that aren't owned by a packer that suffer the most.

The big, on the other hand will get bigger. I can see the industry being split into big commodity and niche players, and those of us medium sized producers will have to decide which way we want to go. Policy in this country, and the U.S. too, for that matter, is designed to encourage big, and to support big. The rest of us are on our own.

Personally, I don't think big is sustainable in the long run, unless we're all willing to sign the farm over to Monsantos and Cargills of the world.

And wouldn't that be a disaster?

[wd40]

I agree on several points, but I think the cow herd reduction in CDN would be a scary number and only NB really knows what that is.

The beef industry has been working for a long time to "consolidate", and I've said allalong that's not good.

Big is never efficient and will need price supports as is already demonstrated.

A friend with 7000 hd capacity is closing his pens in the spring cause he's squeezed out.

Our industry is it's own worst enemy.

[kato]

Exactly.

The long term plan is likely to get "too big to fail", and then the ones that are "too big to fail", will know they can carry on with not worries, because they will not be allowed to fail.

Sweet deal.

Us little guys, on the other hand, are "too small to save".

Raw deal.

[grassfarmer]

Why talk of this as a future scenario Kato - haven't we had exactly what you describe since 2003? The "too big to fails" have been getting bailed out since day one as far as I can see.

[kato]

Ya, I guess you've got a point there.

Sad, isn't it?