Cow Herd Smallest Since 1958

[farmers_son]

What do you think of this? U.S. cow herd smallest since 1958, U.S. calf crop smallest since 1950. From the USDA Cattle Inventory Report:

Cattle

ISSN: 1948-9099

Released January 28, 2011, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA).

January 1 Cattle Inventory Down 1 Percent

All cattle and calves in the United States as of January 1, 2011, totaled
92.6 million head, 1 percent below the 93.9 million on January 1, 2010. This
is the lowest January 1 inventory of all cattle and calves since the 91.2
million on hand in 1958.

All cows and heifers that have calved, at 40.0 million, were down 1 percent
from the 40.5 million on January 1, 2010.

• Beef cows, at 30.9 million, were down 2 percent from January 1, 2010.

• Milk cows, at 9.1 million, were up 1 percent from January 1, 2010.

Other class estimates on January 1, 2011, and the change from January 1,
2010, are as follows:

• All heifers 500 pounds and over, 19.5 million, down 1 percent.

• Beef replacement heifers, 5.2 million, down 5 percent.

• Milk replacement heifers, 4.6 million, up 1 percent.

• Other heifers, 9.8 million, up 1 percent.

• Steers weighing 500 pounds and over, 16.4 million, down 1 percent.

• Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over, 2.2 million, down 2 percent.

• Calves under 500 pounds, 14.5 million, down 3 percent.

• Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter in all feedlots, 14.0 million,
up 3 percent.

• The combined total of calves under 500 pounds, and other heifers and
steers over 500 pounds outside of feedlots was 26.7 million, down 3
percent.

Calf Crop Down 1 Percent

The 2010 calf crop was estimated at 35.7 million head, down 1 percent from
2009. This is the smallest calf crop since the 34.9 million born during 1950.
Calves born during the first half of 2010 are estimated at 25.9 million, down
1 percent from 2009.

[kato]

How does that compare to Canadian numbers?

[greybeard]

US is now a net exporter due to low Dollar

[grassfarmer]

Not really news the trends have been obvious for a while. Mind you 1% down is not a lot - think 100 fat steers weighing 1350lbs being replaced by 99 weighing 1363lbs as has been the trend for several years. Bigger news will be how the north American industry deals with $7 or $8 corn which I can see coming fairly quick.

Greybeard the US has been a net exporter for a long time hasn't it?

[wd40]

I've heard guesstaments at 30 % for CDN?

Stats CDN is always years behind.

[ALLFARMER]

Good Good Good power to the herdsman

[greybeard]

I think the US has been a net importer since they lost market share due to BSE in 2003.
I expected packers and retailers to call for bigger quotas and more market access for imported beef as soon as supply tightened and prices rose. It won't do them any good as the currency can't compete in the tight world market today. Instead of supply coming in to fill demand in North America the US is exporting the most since 2002.
Every dog has his day!

[burnt]

It is not such a big challenge to offest a 1% drop in numbers by increasing finished weights, true enough.

However, a 5% drop in numbers is a different story. Especially with corn hitting 20 -30% higher values.

So increased carcass weights will be unable push the supply up enough this time.

[grassfarmer]

Burnt it was only replacement heifers that were down 5%, most other categories 1%. I don't think we can assume heifer replacements down 5% equals fat cattle down 5% next year or the year after. Your point about corn prices and effect on carcass weights and economics is right though. Something is going to have to change.

Canada has an import quota in place for 764,000 tonnes but I'm told extra permits are rubber stamped and ready to go.

[farmers_son]

The truth is not nearly as interesting as BS.

Grassfarmer said "Canada has an import quota in place for 764,000 tonnes but I'm told extra permits are rubber stamped and ready to go."

Canada has a beef TRQ of 76,409 tonnes, not 764,000 tonnes.

Canada has not allowed supplementary quotas over the TRQ since 2002. In 2010 Canada imported 42,758 tonnes or only about half of the TRQ. We are only one month into 2011 but imports so far would suggest 2011 will be similar to 2010. I would not expect any supplementary permits to be provided in 2011 or for that matter going into the future. No supplementary permits are rubber stamped, in fact no supplementary permits were even requested.

Check out the following link outlining Canada's beef imports 2010/2011 by importing country:

http://www.international.gc.ca/controls-controles/prod/agri/beef-boeuf/index.aspx?menu_id=23

[grassfarmer]

Sorry FS, wasn't meant to be BS. It was a typo that turned 76,400 into 764,000.
If it is so clear cut that there will be no import permits above that, or even demand for them why did the ABP not declare the resolution regarding this very issue redundant?
They are usually quick enough to vote resolutions redundant seems they missed this one according to you.

[wd40]

If all your numberts are true, how much export did CDN do through 2010. Live and boxed.

We have the largest empty pen capacity in the feedlots ever.

Why?

[kato]

Why? It's all too simple. Because the cow herd has been shrinking and the feeder supply has been shrinking with it.

No cows = no feeders.

As I've said in the past, when the cow calf producer is forced out of business, the feedlots will be next. It's not like they can run across the border and get American calves either, because the same thing is happening there. The worst part is that it will most likely be the independents that aren't owned by a packer that suffer the most.

The big, on the other hand will get bigger. I can see the industry being split into big commodity and niche players, and those of us medium sized producers will have to decide which way we want to go. Policy in this country, and the U.S. too, for that matter, is designed to encourage big, and to support big. The rest of us are on our own.

Personally, I don't think big is sustainable in the long run, unless we're all willing to sign the farm over to Monsantos and Cargills of the world.

And wouldn't that be a disaster?

[wd40]

I agree on several points, but I think the cow herd reduction in CDN would be a scary number and only NB really knows what that is.

The beef industry has been working for a long time to "consolidate", and I've said allalong that's not good.

Big is never efficient and will need price supports as is already demonstrated.

A friend with 7000 hd capacity is closing his pens in the spring cause he's squeezed out.

Our industry is it's own worst enemy.

[kato]

Exactly.

The long term plan is likely to get "too big to fail", and then the ones that are "too big to fail", will know they can carry on with not worries, because they will not be allowed to fail.

Sweet deal.

Us little guys, on the other hand, are "too small to save".

Raw deal.