SADIE, Agreed much of the debate on the commodity forum is rather offputting. The bad language and the largely one sided bullying that goes on doesn't reflect well on some of the posters.
I'm not sure I agree with your comment about high open heifer prices now helping set the tone for what bred heifers are going to be in the fall. It's showing how high they NEED to be in the fall to be better business than selling them as opens now. We should be cautious about assuming future prices are based on current price plus an assumed increase in value. Something unexpected (like BSE) coming along might make bred heifers worth only $850 in the fall. My risk tolerence doesn't extend to buying $1000 open heifers with the intention of selling them as breds. It's funny the psychology of the market place though - when markets are rising many are prepared to take huge risks on unlikely outcomes whereas in down markets most are unprepared to take the lesser risks involved with surer outcomes.
I'm not sure I agree with your comment about high open heifer prices now helping set the tone for what bred heifers are going to be in the fall. It's showing how high they NEED to be in the fall to be better business than selling them as opens now. We should be cautious about assuming future prices are based on current price plus an assumed increase in value. Something unexpected (like BSE) coming along might make bred heifers worth only $850 in the fall. My risk tolerence doesn't extend to buying $1000 open heifers with the intention of selling them as breds. It's funny the psychology of the market place though - when markets are rising many are prepared to take huge risks on unlikely outcomes whereas in down markets most are unprepared to take the lesser risks involved with surer outcomes.
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