The Ethanol Mandate is Killing the Cattle and Hog Industry – Kevin Grier, George Morris Centre

[charliep]

To compete with a 40 bu/acre canola crop (cost side equal which is likely not the
case) and $10/bu, a cereal crop has to produce $400/acre. That is a 100 bu/acre
feed barley crop sold for $4/bu or a 80 bu/acre feed wheat crop at $5/bu.

Nothing to suggest the decline in cow numbers is slowing in the US. Even when
it does, heifer retention will have to start which will squeeze numbers even more.
In the world of a slower North America economy, the hamburger world has set in
with the consumer (what they can afford) - cow values will stay high.

Demand side is the biggest question - both North America and world. Add in
ongoing challenges to open some markets up after BSE (eight years after the
event) and regain consumer confidence in off shore markets.

Nothing to do with ethanol but realities of the market. Do recognize the
interesting challenges of livestock high prices and high cost feed.

[charliep]

Weird comment but I would feel a lot more confident as a traditional mixed
operation these days with both cattle and grain. Lots more options in a crappy
year like the current and ways to manage risk/use resources productively.

[charliep]

burnt

Hadn't realized you are from Ontario. Your situation is different.

[shaney]

Charlie I think that your comment on the mixed operation is very true. We have many one street specialized farms now that are not able to stabilize economically in this voaltile market.

[grassfarmer]

"At Innisfail Alberta they are still trying to build an ethanol plant but it is kind of a scam, as they need some big bucks from the feds to make it work."

Does that surprise anyone? Riverstone holdings is a Carlyle Group subsiduary - worlds biggest arms dealers - Bush and the Bin Ladens et all. There's usually a scam involving taxpayer money when these guys are involved.