The Ethanol Mandate is Killing the Cattle and Hog Industry – Kevin Grier, George Morris Centre

[shaney]

The food versus fuel debate seems to be alive and well according to Kevin Grier from the George Morris Center. Kevin also believes that some of the people that should be the most update are livestock producers in Canada. As Kevin mention in the below interview, with 40% of the US corn crop being burned up for ethanol it puts huge supply concerns on corn."

[URL="http://realagriculture.com/?s=kevin grier"]Kevin Grier[/URL] is based in Guelph with the George Morris Center and he very strongly believes that we will look back in ten years and wonder why we ever entertained an ethanol policy. I strongly encourage you to play this video and listen to the argument that Kevin makes for the elimination of corn ethanol production. Whether you agree or disagree Kevin gives livestock producers, corn growers and the public something to think about.

<a href="http://realagriculture.com/2011/05/19/the-ethanol-mandate-is-killing-the-cattle-and-hog-industry-kevin-grier-george-morris-centre/">CHECK OUT OUR INTERVIEW WITH KEVIN GRIER ON REALAGRICULTURE.COM</a>

[newguy]

The ethanol mandate is a good thing. Government used to subsidies farmers to grow grain and all it did was create grain surplus that keep grain down in price and drove up subsidies more. With the ethanol price of grain goes up and goverment money to farmers is gone way done. Also when grain goes up farmers impliment technology to increase production. So in the end US government imports less foriegn oil. So when a better source of energy is found grain production will already be at a point to easily feed the world. I would say oil prices impact a person's food prices in North America more than grain prices.

[burnt]

newguy, did you watch the video?

[hedgehog]

food is too cheap, ethanol is the way forward.

[newguy]

Livestock industry has to adapt to higher prices. US was shipping government corn into local hog barn mill at the price of trucking a few years ago. Not no more. Tax payers were keeping grain cheap for counties like China. If we want a cheap food policy who should pay for it? Farmers or Exporting country tax payers or governments fom importing countries???At least with ethanol subsities the money stays in the that pays for it.

[burnt]

Ummm, seems to me that if farmers don't like producing cheap food they shouldn't do it.

Did you watch the video?

[newguy]

Yes I watched the video. And if farmers stopped producing cheap food that would really be better than using it for ethanol. LOL..

[newguy]

Ultimatly food is not the issue on food shortages. The US still is paying farmers on millions of acres to leave land idle. Sask grows 400 thousand acres of canary seed for bird feed. Thousands of acres of golf courses are irrigated and you can go on and on. So until I see potatoes growing in front of everyones house instead of a lawn I think food is cheap in Noth America. I would bet what the average Canadian spends on entertainment and holidays is more than they spend on food .

[newguy]

The fact is that food as percentage of peoples monthly budget has gone down alot more than its gone up over the last 100 years.The growth in productivity on the western canadian farm has been whats done that.Take a look at the average waist line in North America and tell me food is expensive.If wheat was 8$ in the 70's imagine what it would be today had it appreciated at the rate of inflation over the last 30 years.

[hedgehog]

it could be $40/bu, and might be yet

[ASRG]

Maybe the meat industry will have to change? If it makes more sense finacially to grow crops on suitable land, then that is a good thing?
Land unsuitable for crop production could still be used for cattle production and beef would still be produced? It might not be what the market has decided is the "best product" but it will find a market? How much of the worlds beef is grain fed?
If the North American consumer wants grain fed baby beef then they will have to step up to the plate and pay for it. They might have to make a decision on whether they want to eat well or fill the gas tank on the BMW!
In my opinion ethanol has been a good thing in that it has brought to a head the problem of cheap food and the farmers need to get a sustainable return on his investment and labour. The world doesn't end because we don't have a cow? If growing fuel puts more money in my pocket than growing food, then that is the way to go? I'm tired of subsidizing the urbanite so he can have his RV, Hummer and power boat.

[newguy]

The only place higher grain prices have a effect is the poorer countries that people buy a bag of peas or grain take it home and make flour out of it. This grain may be already over 50% of their income.So if grain doubles it takes all their income to eat. But in North America if grain doubles it may add 10 cents to a loaf of bread. I feel for the poorer countries but farmers can no longer supply cheap food to them. So who's tax payers should help feed the 3rd world countries. Some of these countries are not willing to adopt new farming practices to feed themselves. [ GMO]..

[jensend]

so if farmers can't afford to supply the poorer nations won't there be an oversupply that lowers prices? if you think richer nations (which have smaller populations) are going to pay high prices while stockpiles build i think you should revisit your reasoning. your biggest market is poor people and you can't get money they don't have. to say that prices will stay high just because you want them to is a desperate hope. if prices rise to unaffordable levels they will also be unsustainable just by logic. if your customer starves to death they generally are out of the market.

[newguy]

I am not saying they get cut off food. Farmers are getting to be a small % of the population and should not be expected to foot the bill alone. This is going to be a problem in the future and all tax payers of the modern countries should expect to help pay to feed the world. Grain is still very cheap in our nation . Does anyone know of any other industry that can sell their product to China and be competitive?

[charliep]

Actually we don't feed the poor of the world. They feed themselves from local
production with the calories and protein they can afford to buy.

North America feeds the growing middle class in the developing world new
with diverse products they can't get locally. We also support their value added
industries such as livestock. Lots of areas of the world buy feedgrains and
protein again to satisfy the demand for better diets with meat.

When I listen to Kevin's clip (George Morris has been consistent on this), the
issue is not ethanol good or bad but rather the level of subsidy paid to this
industry. A weird comment but the livestock industry in the US at least
benefited from a subsidy to corn producers that paid them to over produce
(read cheap prices) and now the shoe is on the other foot (a subsidy to ethanol
that gives it an unfair advantage over livestock).

An interesting slide from a conference I attended is one that shows crop
production and consumption. Both were about 800 million tonnes just 50
years. Today if my memory is right are about 2 billion tonnes. By 2050, this
number will need to be closer to 2.5 billion based on trend.

Remembering the French revolution and the impact on Marie Antoinette,
perhaps the expression of the future will be let them eat beans. Perhaps both
ethanol and meat are unsustainable sources of demand.