The Ethanol Mandate is Killing the Cattle and Hog Industry – Kevin Grier, George Morris Centre

[jensend]

maybe you want to take a look at how the concept that n. america is the world's foodbasket came about. hint: it's not for the benefit of farmers.

[hedgehog]

its really just a return to the old days, when it took a third of the farm to graze and feed the working horses that ploughed the land and hauled the corn to market.
my calculator tells me that one third of my place will grow enough ethanol to power my tractors/ truck.
no fuel spare for commuting to work.
when the horses went, we automatically went into surplus and the downward price spiral.
A starving man will happily pay you $100/bu

[newguy]

When the US taxpayer subsidizes ethanol. 100% of the ethanol stays in the US. When they subsidize grain any grain that was exported also exported tax payers dollars . For every action there is a reaction. The livestock industry needs to adjust.

[shaney]

Newguy. How do you suggest a hog farmer adjust to 7.00 corn. I'm sure they are all ears.

[newguy]

Same way grain farmers adjust to $650 fertilizer. They have been feeding top Quality durum. Thank you CWB..

[johnsmith]

Kevin Grier like Al Gore/hacks no value. I trust the cattle/hogs guys will figure it out. Been in the crop game for 30yrs. First 20 or so STABLE. Early 2000's bumper crops worth nothing, the industries that serviced this farm in those 20/25yrs had the attitude of--this is the price take it or leave it STABLE(FU was on the end of my tongue and I didn't know why) People were having a good time living off the back of cheap food, Just take the kids in the US, fat lazy and killing themselves, cheap corn syrup. STABLE. CWB(good bye)STABLE. You can have it. My last 7/8yrs UNSTABLE. Screwed up weather, from no crop to good crop, price are fun to farm now, ethanol using up cheap supplies, China buying everything in sight, throw in some world politics, what do ya got UNSTABLE. The industries that services this farm NOW are bangging on my door with some hunger. UNSTABLE. Not sure. Hungry. Its great!!! We will feed the world because its what we do, but UNSTABLE seems to be better on this farm, so Kevin Grier can take a hike, UNSTABLE, not sure makes people heathly, sharp like the cattle/hog guys they will make it just like the crop guys.

[johnsmith]

How about this headline.
Corn ethanol and its subsidies will be the direct cause of the colapse of the drug trade intustries in Afghanistan and Columbia. High grain prices have cause the crop growers to switch to food instead of opium because of more profit, hmmmm.

[ASRG]

I'm not real sure what is happening in the cattle business on a national scale, but in my area (central Alberta) a lot of cows have disappeared and it is unlikely they are ever coming back? At the local auction barns it is like visiting the old folks home...very few young guys!
Those old men selling out aren't going to get back in no matter how much cattle are worth?
Cash rents are good and land prices are high. I don't know if you can pay for land with present crop prices, but I know cattle won't pay for that land!
In general oil prices are likely to remain fairly high in the long term. If poor countries can't afford high priced food and we lose grain exports because of it, a bio deisel/ethanol industry could soak up the excess? Why produce food at a loss? That is a recipe for disaster.

[checking]

If the livestock industry is being killed by ethanol, perhaps their energies should be geared towards vocalizing complaints about the percent of all food that is left to rot, thrown out, and or landfilled by themselves and their supporters. Strange they never seem to point their fingers at their ways.

Many state that waste is as high as 40% to 50% of all food grown in the world. How does that waste compare to 40% of corn that is actually turned into a usable energy product and protein? Not even in the same ballpark, I would say.

[jensend]

one question to put the whole thing into perspective might be to ask how much ethanol would be produced if not for mandates and subsidies?

[charliep]

For what it worth, Western Canada does not really have a large ethanol
industry. We don't have $7/bu equivalent feed grain prices either. $7/bu
corn equates to $280/tonne. Current feed barley prices Alberta $180 to
$205/tonne. Feed wheat similar. Add $20 on for Manitoba (low fusarium).
The issues in western Canada are declining livestock numbers, lots of feed
wheat, logistic issues to port, etc. Perhaps what an ethanol industry would
do would be to give farmers a reason to grow barley and higher yielding
mid quality wheats relative to food type grains and oilseeds. Today it
doesn't pay the bills.

[charliep]

A weird question would what would the price of corn be today with no US
ethanol industry and a 13 bln bu 2011 corn crop? I suspect well under
$3/bu.. Maybe the reaction would be less corn acres (keeping in mind
the loan rate and indirect payments would still support US farmer
revenues). More acres to wheat and soybeans - impact on prices?
Cheaper feed grain prices to feed livestock off shore and less incentive to
export meat from North America?

[jensend]

i think economics and public perception will solve this question. in germany the biodiesel plants were dismantled and exported as subsidies were phased out and lately people have been declining to buy ethanol laced gas because of the food v. fuel perception. if the ethanol industry in canada is insignificant let's revoke the mandate and withdraw the subsidies while it's still easy. lol.

[jensend]

Most of the third world's poorest people are farmers and high grain prices have actually been good for them.Its those who used to be poor now entering the middle class that will feel the pinch the most.Maybe if food becomes even more expensive the Europeans will get there head around buying gm crops.

[Wheatking]

What is the conversion factor of corn(or wheat)
to ddg. In other words how much usable feed is
available after the conversion to ethanol. Are
ddg a good feed alternative, or substitute to
corn or wheat.

I guess the big question is more energy created
with ethanol and ddg combined. Because it all
comes down to energy in the end.