Thoughts On Cow Prices?

[kato]

And they all add up to less cattle in the country. The exodus continues here in Manitoba as well. Maybe even greater than elsewhere with all the weather troubles we've had.

If someone came and offered us two thousand dollars for our bred cows, we'd call a truck too. Then wait a bit, find a dip in the market, get some heifers, and start up with no debt.

Now all we need is someone with a wheelbarrow full of cash. LOL

[perfecho]

Kato....years ago, in another life....I had dairy cows. Sold cows and quota because the market had gone up, thought I would buy back when prices settled out....never did, continued to climb to about a 100 times the price. Don't regret it, moved on to bigger and better, but it was a valuable lesson. Sometimes we get what we wish for, and then the problems start!
ASRG, as a Gelbvieh breeder, I just couldn't resist, not a slight on your selection at all....heck, I have started a Lowline herd and they are more Angus than Angus of today!
But back to original topic.......it is a crap shoot, not many new players is what is really needed. Closer to retirement myself....hence the Lowlines to play with. It will take a steady market for a few years, prices of grain to have less shine before there is much interest. Inflation/wages factured in, cattle are still quite low....our expectations are not quite what everyone else's is.
Have fun in the sun.....good to see around here!

[T.N.T.]

What i meant Burn't when i said afraid of work.A lot of farms have been pasted on to the next generation,and a lot of those new farmers now have Daddy's money and just want to live on easy street with it.They want to seed a crop in the spring,and then harvest in fall and then just live the life of riley the rest of the year because they have all of Daddys money to play with.I'm in my 80's now and i still probably work harder then most 40 year olds do in our area,makes me proud that i'm still able to do this,but if i was any of those 40 year old kids i would be embarrassed about that!! I don't work because i have to anymore,i do it because i enjoy it.Don't get me wrong i work hard,but i also play hard when the time is right,just maybe or can't play as hard as i use to!!

[burnt]

Thank you for your explanation and I understand what you are saying.

It's perplexing to see that happen and leaves a lot of questions as to why. For our family, our sons did not see much incentive to keep cows/cattle after BSE began to take its toll. Why would they when they saw their dad's equity pouring down a rathole called cattle?

When I would go to make an improvement on the farm, especially the barn for those money-losing cows, they would ask why I'm doing it. I guess my answers were a bit weak to them.

It also didn't help that BSE hit right when they were at the age when they should/could have been starting to buy into the livestock end of things. The timing was bad for our family.

Instead, they took up trades and professions that pay them many times more than what they could make in livestock - and without the hassles.

So, are they afraid to work, or has the industry become just too unrewarding to take the plunge like we did at that age? Not saying it can't be done, but the stakes are higher than ever before.

It's a different world than when you started and even when I started 35 years ago.

It leaves me with a very bitter feeling to think that our kids will not likely farm because it's what we've always done and it sickens me to know that it's over when I'm done.

In any case, I certainly admire your work ethic!

[ASRG]

Burnt: I think you pretty well summed up what most of us probably feel. BSE was a lot more brutal than what the world sees, with some really long term implications for farm families. How many young people decided right there, that this isn't the life for me?
Working hard is a good thing, but why knock yourself out for nothing? Why waste your life for a poor return?
Some of these young people are making big money in the oil patch. They can have the new trucks, the big house in the country, all the toys!
A young guy up the road works as a drilling consultant. He gets $2200/day , that is fairly standard he tells me? (trys to only work 6 months a year for tax purposes). Has a few horses.
What is the net profit on a cow, with calves at $1.40? If she makes $300 he would need over 200 cows to make as much as he makes in 30 days!
He really seems to enjoy what he is doing? It is a different way of life for sure.

[BTOfarmallll]

The Cow Herd in Comedia is F*******. Cow Pasture upon Cow Pasture, Empty, Empty, Empty. On my Tours everywhere 10 Pastures empty to one with 10-20 Cows in er'. Thee Herd will never be rebuilt. The way The Livetock Industry is going in Comedia, Ship'er across The Pond, Noone here wants to work anymore. Sit in The Coffee Shop & Bitch they have to work 2 months outta the year Calvin Cows, Fixin Fence, & Puttin Hay up!!! Real Genies......

[burnt]

$2200/day? How can that be?

I have a nephew who is considering moving from the manufacturing arm of an oilfield tool manufacturing co. in Edmonton to take up a posting as a consultant with the operations side of the same company.

I think I can now see why . . .

The trouble with wages like that is that it makes the rest of us, especially smaller operators, look foolish for even getting out of bed in the morning! Good thing we love what we do!! (Most days haha)

When I hear stuff like that $2200/day I tell myself that it's a good thing that what I'm doing isn't nearly as important as his job! hahaha

[grassfarmer]

ASRG, Your comment "Some of these young people are making big money in the oil patch. They can have the new trucks, the big house in the country, all the toys!" seems to be the mentality around here for sure - but what a fools paradise. Most of these guys live one paycheck away from being on skid row. Many of them have little education or ability to do anything other than drive an oil-field truck. I wouldn't trade places with them in a million years.
Growing food, converting grass to beef is so much more secure and permanent business to be in.
I know a lot of the guys wanting to sell would like to see $2000 cows but realistically most of the guys that are in cows for the long haul stocked up on cheap cows or retained enough replacements when prices were low that they won't be needing to spend $2000 now and I think that will cap demand. Look how fat price and feeder price has dropped since February, and with corn trading high lets just wait and see how strong the fall run is before getting excited about bred cow prices.

[ASRG]

Now when I say this guy is a "young guy" I'm talking late thirties! Him and his wife own a couple of rental properties (one a six plex) and he has five quarters in Virden Manitoba that he got from his Dad and rents out (side note-he owns the minerals).
I like to talk to him. He likes to talk about his job drilling for very deep sour gas around Fort Saint John. It takes a lot of skill (almost an art) to bring in a deep sour well. Some of the technology is pretty amazing!
BTO: I never found it was much of a two month job? Seems like I never had a lot of time to laze about? But I will admit I have enjoyed my life.
For everything there is a season. A time to start, a time to grow,a time to slow down, and a time to quit? That is life.