Thoughts On Cow Prices?

[ASRG]

Just wondering how people see bred cow/heifer prices playing out this fall?
It seems to me there is the potential for a lot of fairly cheap "cow hay" out there and pastures are fairly lush this year (at least in my area)?
Interest rates are reasonable?
IF...the calf prices are decent this fall I suspect there could be a few willing buyers looking to add to their cow herds?
What do you think a good angus type bred cow weighing in that 1400 lb range, 4-8 yrs old might be worth? Bred to purebred black angus bulls, start calving April 1st?

[greybeard]

I'm hoping the equity has returned to my cow herd ant thy will be worth as much as they were 10 yrs ago.
Unfortunately your phrase "few" willing buyers might apply in this area. I know more that are cashing in and going straight grain than looking for more cows.

[T.N.T.]

The 4 year old cows i'm guessing good decent cows should be in that $1400 to $1500 range,at least thats what we are looking to spend to expand again this fall anything over that we will wait to see whats up for offers as pairs.

[smcgrath76]

A lot of factors at play. A very small
cow herd, lots of political and
financial insecurity globally, hungry
and growing population with increasing
disposable income, quite a bit of feed
around...
They may hit $2000 as some are
predicting, or they may be around the
$1200 mark. We are hoping for $2000
around here and always planning for
$500.
The one thing around here with all the
available feed, is that many who still
have inventory can manage it a bit to
try to capture some better prices if
they need to. Not everyone is so
fortunate.

[perfecho]

Sorry, but just couldn't resist........they may be worth more if bred to another kinda bull............. ;-0

[T.N.T.]

This spring i was thinking they might hit $2000 this fall,but it seems even farmers are getting to lazy now and they don't want to do anymore work then they have to.There will be only a few real buyers in this bred cow market this winter,and those will be the ones that have there feet firmly planted and aren't afraid of work.Thats why i don't think the price will be as high as i originally thought,just not enough people to fill those shoes!!

[smcgrath76]

Another breed? Such as...LOL!!!

[burnt]

T.N.T - "...aren't afraid to work...", not sure what you mean by that. The cow numbers are down dramatically in the past few years, but it's not because people are afraid to work.

What I do find, though, is that there are fewer people all the time who are willing to work for nothing (or perhaps even pay for the privilege) as many of us have for the past 7, almost 8 years.

Plus the incentive of turning a bit of hay/pasture ground into cropland and getting paid more for a lot less hours - why wouldn't a guy do that if the option is there?

[ASRG]

I'm really wondering just how good the bred market might be when I see lots of "dispersals" advertized for pairs asking $1600 to $1800 in the western producer and on the Alberta Ag site? A $1700 pair translates into a pretty cheap cow after you sell that $1.40 X 600 lb = $740 calf?.....that is a pretty cheap cow!
As far as black angus bulls.....to each his own....over the years I've used Char/Sim/Gelvieh/ Red Angus....I like the black angus the best.

[SADIE]

Interesting thread---I intend to be a player this fall again How aggressive is another question. It appears the "blume" is off the bred heifer market heading into fall.

1)What is the yearling market, calf market?
2)cull cow and bull market continues?

3)Available hay and forage---huge surplus of roughage--alot with rain. Standing fields--owners are begging someone to hay it.

4)2 day holiday through the north eastern Saskatchewan last week. Fields and fields of canola---empty pastures, and no beef cows.

Around the Saskatoon area and Gardiner Dam area again more cow herds are completely gone or are going this fall.

Price is up to "Sell", Age of operator or son/daughter taking off farm job, grain sector strong, The Ear tag regulations---Retention problems continue. Hearing the fines of $1300.00 and the section 176 of the animal health act--a concern. Increased desire to spend some more time down south during the winter.

Had a Saskatoon Fall Fair meeting in June for the commercial show and sale with concern of "no herds" not enough players to even run a show this fall. Lack of sponsorship continues, Lack of interest.

Saskatoon area has talk of 4 feedlots not even bringing in calves this fall. Pens are still a washed out mess, manure pileup problems continue with environmental concerns.

Just a mixture of factors coming into play.

[kato]

And they all add up to less cattle in the country. The exodus continues here in Manitoba as well. Maybe even greater than elsewhere with all the weather troubles we've had.

If someone came and offered us two thousand dollars for our bred cows, we'd call a truck too. Then wait a bit, find a dip in the market, get some heifers, and start up with no debt.

Now all we need is someone with a wheelbarrow full of cash. LOL

[perfecho]

Kato....years ago, in another life....I had dairy cows. Sold cows and quota because the market had gone up, thought I would buy back when prices settled out....never did, continued to climb to about a 100 times the price. Don't regret it, moved on to bigger and better, but it was a valuable lesson. Sometimes we get what we wish for, and then the problems start!
ASRG, as a Gelbvieh breeder, I just couldn't resist, not a slight on your selection at all....heck, I have started a Lowline herd and they are more Angus than Angus of today!
But back to original topic.......it is a crap shoot, not many new players is what is really needed. Closer to retirement myself....hence the Lowlines to play with. It will take a steady market for a few years, prices of grain to have less shine before there is much interest. Inflation/wages factured in, cattle are still quite low....our expectations are not quite what everyone else's is.
Have fun in the sun.....good to see around here!

[T.N.T.]

What i meant Burn't when i said afraid of work.A lot of farms have been pasted on to the next generation,and a lot of those new farmers now have Daddy's money and just want to live on easy street with it.They want to seed a crop in the spring,and then harvest in fall and then just live the life of riley the rest of the year because they have all of Daddys money to play with.I'm in my 80's now and i still probably work harder then most 40 year olds do in our area,makes me proud that i'm still able to do this,but if i was any of those 40 year old kids i would be embarrassed about that!! I don't work because i have to anymore,i do it because i enjoy it.Don't get me wrong i work hard,but i also play hard when the time is right,just maybe or can't play as hard as i use to!!

[burnt]

Thank you for your explanation and I understand what you are saying.

It's perplexing to see that happen and leaves a lot of questions as to why. For our family, our sons did not see much incentive to keep cows/cattle after BSE began to take its toll. Why would they when they saw their dad's equity pouring down a rathole called cattle?

When I would go to make an improvement on the farm, especially the barn for those money-losing cows, they would ask why I'm doing it. I guess my answers were a bit weak to them.

It also didn't help that BSE hit right when they were at the age when they should/could have been starting to buy into the livestock end of things. The timing was bad for our family.

Instead, they took up trades and professions that pay them many times more than what they could make in livestock - and without the hassles.

So, are they afraid to work, or has the industry become just too unrewarding to take the plunge like we did at that age? Not saying it can't be done, but the stakes are higher than ever before.

It's a different world than when you started and even when I started 35 years ago.

It leaves me with a very bitter feeling to think that our kids will not likely farm because it's what we've always done and it sickens me to know that it's over when I'm done.

In any case, I certainly admire your work ethic!

[ASRG]

Burnt: I think you pretty well summed up what most of us probably feel. BSE was a lot more brutal than what the world sees, with some really long term implications for farm families. How many young people decided right there, that this isn't the life for me?
Working hard is a good thing, but why knock yourself out for nothing? Why waste your life for a poor return?
Some of these young people are making big money in the oil patch. They can have the new trucks, the big house in the country, all the toys!
A young guy up the road works as a drilling consultant. He gets $2200/day , that is fairly standard he tells me? (trys to only work 6 months a year for tax purposes). Has a few horses.
What is the net profit on a cow, with calves at $1.40? If she makes $300 he would need over 200 cows to make as much as he makes in 30 days!
He really seems to enjoy what he is doing? It is a different way of life for sure.