Get out your crystal ball

[cowman]

Of course you are correct Jeff. Land speculation and whether it rises or falls doesn't really have much to do with the productive value of the land.
And you are quite correct in saying the price of land in my area is not driven by it's productive value.
And countryguy you are 100% right. Sask. and Manitoba are the future in livestock production because as Sean says with no subsidies these provinces actually benefit in terms of the viability
of livestock production.
It is frustrating for guys like me because we know this land we have is probably the best agricultural land in the west, and yet it is going to end up pasturing nags and being a playground.

[pandiana]

jmillang: Yes, capital gains and appreciation of land value has kept many a marginal farmer on the land years after they would have called it quits. This was their retirement fund. If they are lucky they don't have kids that want a leg up to get into farming.
I suspect that most farmers don't have that many RRSPs, haven't paid into Canada Pension, don't have dental plans or extended medical. (Just as an aside, recent figures quoted on the news of $4000.00 just to get dentures replaced would certainly take a bit out of that $10,000 projected salary.)

The problem is that for many, years of going to the bank for operating loans to buy feed, finance machinery cost and repairs and in general to close the gap between income and expenses has resulted in the banks owning a large portion of this retirement fund.

I have the feeling many feel that they are working to keep financial institutions in business.

[mbfarmer]

I farm in southwest Manitoba...here, rumors of pasture land selling for $312.50/ac, which is unheard of in this area. My question to you people in Alberta is if your equity is being eaten away; little or no profit in cow/calf; high land prices; why are you still in the cow/calf operations. Why not take that high priced land and sell it to someone that wants to pay YOUR price? Just some more wood for the fire.

[cowman]

mbfarmer:Looking at it from a strictly business sense we are complete idiots to try to carry on. But it is hard to leave a place where you grew up, where your father grew up, where your grandfather grew up. Every hill, gully,creek have a lot of memories. A place that you have loved more than life itself. And quit a business and way of life that you've always known and that goes back generations and generations, way back to Scotland and England. It is hard to walk away from that with a handful of cash!
I like to consider myself a good businessman rather than a farmer. And in business there is no place for sentiment. So maybe I'm not a very good businessman.

[mbfarmer]

That is the thing with farming these days...it is not just a way of life..it is a business. I hear you, once farming gets into your blood... it is hard to get out. Is it that your land is highly productive or is it because of its location (it is worth so much)?? I mean, if it is productive, would going crops on it be more economically beneficial. Around here guys were trucking barley to Alberta and making money at it. In our area, it is not the most productive crop land and some have lots of pothole and bush on them...perfect cattle country as far as I am concerned. I guess I have an optimistic look on farming as I am just taking over our family farm. I worked off farm 12 years to support my habit and on have taken the big step.

[rookie]

Some days I hope this monitor is that crystal ball... But I would also have to say I am optomistic about farming. I have worked off farm for 15 years now and so far nothing off farm has made me change my mind about trying to make a go of it. Nothing yet...

[cowman]

And boys, I firmly believe that in places like Manitoba and Sask. you can still go farming and make it! If I was 20 years younger and in better health I would definitely be out there. Now having said that I don't think I would sell my farm here...it would be worse than selling my kids!
Yes this is productive land but what drives the price around here is a booming oil and gas industry as well as a huge petro-chemical industry. When the "grunts" in the petro plants are making $100,000 a year there is a lot of money for hobbies.

[crazeeakerz]

My wife and I are at the stage in life where we are seriously looking at selling the cattle. After last years drought when we harvested less than half the usual hay crop, we are thinking that now is the time to quit before we are hit by another bad year. This spring has been hard on calving and I know many other producers in Alberta had big losses. With pasture and hay land at a premium, the only logical way for us is to rent out our land. We could sell but don't wish to move to town yet. As with other sectors of agriculture, small operations are giving way to large. Let the big operators who have financial backing take on the market place. There is not much room left for underfinanced small farms. The facts speak for themselves as so many of the previous contributors pointed out.Unless a person is independently wealthy, there is just not enough return for your investment in agriculture any more to support the risk.

[cowman]

krazeakerz: I suspect there are thousands who are facing the same dilemma as yourself and coming to the same conclusion. The small commercial cow/calf man is becoming a rare breed. I'm not talking about the hobby farmer who has 10 cows...they will always be around. For me it is a sad thing to see but times change and suddenly all the farmers are old and the young ones are few and far between. How did this situation sneak up on us? And when guys like you and me are gone what next? Will all the cow herds have to be 1000 head? And will they make any money either? What happens when the day comes that the government decides to let in the garbage from Brazil and Argentina? That will be the end of the cattle business in the west. What are we going to do with all the land? I mean you can only build so many acreages right? And if we can't afford to grow grain on the good land we sure don't need to break up the poor. Maybe it will revert back to a buffalo pasture!
The decision to sell our cattle is never an easy one. They've probably been a big part of your life. I guess all anyone can say is we all are in the same boat and if not today then probably tommorrow we'll face the same decision.
But everything comes to an end and change is always tough. But maybe it's better, now, when we can still exit the industry with a few bucks and a few good years rather than completely broke and wore out??