Cattle prices in 2 or 3 years? 7 or 8 year cycle?

[ALLFARMER]

With bred cows going from $775 to now looking
like $1400 is it still a good time to get more?
Really wondered this spring paying $1000 for
open heifers now their worth what $1500, 5
months later? Ya I know we were getting shafted
for our calves the last number of years but this
seems too good too be true. Retaining heifers is
going to be a big part of my expansion plans just
having a hard time thinking I will go all winter
without buying more breds?

[smcgrath76]

Do you have your costs really nailed down?
We bought some breds last fall, but our
expansion plans include the use of sexed
semen. It allows us to cash flow with the
majority of the herd, but still get the
number of replacements we need from our
female generation program.

[ALLFARMER]

I guess what I am trying to determine is how
many people feel this is a short lived bubble or
how many feel it has a longevity similar to
canola. Is the 7 or 8 year cattle cycle soon to
prove itself again?

[SADIE]

I am not going to speculate "Cattle prices"---according to your topic thread Allfarmer. Two many variables out there and most of agrivillers know that something can come along and derail "prices or the cycle" and change it all.

This weekend is the start of the commercial cattle shows in this province of Saskatchewan. Like many agrivillers I feel there is a tremendous amount of Bred Heifers out there many listed at the big price right now. The Bred Cow Sales around the country are fill of more cow-herd dispersals.

OCT 29 is Edam fall show and sale which I am hoping to attend to start the follow of the Bred Heifer sales from some "reputation herds".

The week later is Lloyd show and sale----if they are having a show and sale this year.

Nov 12 is Saskatoon Fall Fair--To date there are about 20-25 pens of 3 representing different breeds and crosses that represent some of our industry.

Will post when the results come in that I attended.

Q---Where is all the bred-heifers going this fall. This is directly related to labor management.

[smcgrath76]

FWIW - my read is that there is still a
cattle cycle, however this one may be
prolonged by several things...
Texas drought - while we think we are
big stuff we are actually small potatoes
and there are a lot of cows gone from
Texas with a big impact on the cattle
supply.
Crop prices - while high grain prices
tend to drive down the price of feeders
they also tend to drive cows out of the
business on land that can be seeded to
crops. I am seeing a lot of hay/grass
being broken or direct seeded around
here and cows still leaving the country.

If you can grow your herd at a low cost,
or if you have a solid plan that
includes $1500 cows then stick to it and
you should be OK. My thoughts are that
the volatility in the marketplace is
going to pick up again and that we need
to be prepared at our place. That is
why we are looking at sexed semen and
also working to keep our variable costs
down.
I would run 3 scenarios - probably,
hopefully and train wreck. If the train
wreck works out, then the other two are
gravy.

[ALLFARMER]

Great posts, there is a real depth of knowledge
on Agriville mixed in wild cards. My best guess is
the packing plants know we are at a point were
guys like Mack Creech are profit taking. And they
know land still is shifting into grain, even after the
large amounts that already been lost to that
sector. Talked with a Nilsson Bros guy this week
and I was told (with no prompting)" it's important
we keep you doing well so we do well" and it
seemed genuine/real. My last 2 deals I have
done with them I have done very well. So I don't
see the plants putting the squeeze back on for 2
or 3 years.