Are Prices High Enough to Keep Cows?

[ASRG]

Prices at my local maket are trending lower. Good steer calves in that 650/lb range have fallen at least ten cents in the last couple of weeks.(ballpark around $1.44/lb-two weeks ago $1.5450).
Now without a doubt $1.44 is still pretty good, but is it enough to keep the cows down on the farm? It seems to me there is very little interest in bred cows or heifers. The bred heifers I've seen selling aren't much more than the fat price.
If we consider grain prices (and if they will stay where they are!) it is hard to justify cows for the average guy? I'm not talking about all you people who market everything through lucrative niche markets and have figured out how to feed a cow for nothing....I'm talking about the average guy getting the $1.44 for his 650 crossbred steer?

[FarmRanger]

If the paper shredders don't destroy the evidence, maybe a forensic audit will tell us if they are….and more.

[kato]

From what we've been hearing at the markets, right now there is a serious truck shortage lining up directly with the heaviest part of the fall run. As well, at least in our part of the country, the calves are starting to look just a bit stale at the sales... Like they should have been weaned two weeks ago. That may have something to do with the price drop.

The rule of thumb around here is that calves should be sold either six hours or six weeks after weaning. Anything in the middle won't get the top of the market, and there seems to be calves on the market now that are in the middle.

At least this is what Hubby has been seeing as he sits at the sales every week. Guys can't take the calves off the cow for four days and then expect to top the market.

After a while the longer weaned calves will start to show up, and then I think we'll really see what the market will bear. As for whether it's enough to make keeping the cows remains to be seen. I think the prices are going to be a lot higher than they are now to accomplish that. Cow herds are being dispersed as quickly as last fall around here yet.

[grassfarmer]

Feel free to talk yourself out of keeping cows ASRG - it'll make it all the better for those of us who are committed to the cow business. As Kato says it's the usual fall run peak - too many cattle for trucks and likely lots of calves in lots getting treated for shipping fever already. The fall run has been heavy around here which with the smaller cow herd must surely mean inventory on farm/ranch is lower than ever. Barley is cheaper than guys thought it would be a couple of months ago. I think the feeder cattle will go to new highs in the New Year.

Before that suggestion gets knocked down by folks saying "the consumer won't buy dearer beef" "the packers are losing money" or "the feedlots are losing money" I would suggest the market for feeder cattle is set by feedlots - their choice is simple - they either bid enough to get the cattle or their feedlot sits empty. Can't make much with an empty lot so I'm going to bet they keep on buying regardless of price - they have to. But don't worry for most it's not their own money they are blowing - it's that of your doctor or dentist, the guys with tax problems that own cattle and get them custom fed to reduce their tax bills.
The crazy system they call "commodity beef production" in western Canada!

[jdepape]

The CWB has intervenor status on the Friends case anyway. Begs the question why are they doing their own case as well?

And yes, you probably are paying for the Friends case as it stands.

[ASRG]

I'm not "talking myself into not keeping cows". I made that decision a long time ago....it's called age and planning? Sooner or later we all quit, one way or the other? I have broken up some land and will hopefully get the rest broken next year.
It may just be my area but I don't see anyone buying cows, planting grass or building new fences. I do see lots of grassland being broke, empty pastures that haven't had cattle in them, small feedlots falling down around themselves.
Maybe you are right? Prices may continue to rise as older guys like me quit, because I don't see a lot of young people lining up to buy cows....at least not in my area.

[SADIE]

ASRG

I agree with you on what is happening in your area it is happening in our area big-time. This is why I took a keen interest in what the BRED-Heifer Market following the show and sales in this province.

Like I experience at Edam Show and Sale last weekend. There was a crowd but there was several cattleman with some "age" --grey hair or hairless commenting the same as you and I. Will this market hold. Several Cattlemen watched the sale and over coffee asked "How do I price my 200 bred heifers or 350 off my farm?"

The Bred cow sales at SLS starts Nov 11 the weekend of Saskatoon Fall Fair. One new consigner at fall fair entered 5 pens of 3 B Angus to try and get exposure for his/her 300 plus left to sell at home.

Coffee Row and at the table of Saskatoon Fall Fair committee these comments were highlighted why cow-herds are completely dispersed at this time.

THIS IS A VERY CANDID STATEMENT NOW AND NOT ALL ON AGRIVILLE WILL AGREE BUT HERE IT GOES.

1)Price is up finally ----Sell
2)Age of the Operator Mom/Dad with no kids at home interested in the cows--SELL
3)Grain is up and this area had a huge crop on grade and quantity--sell cows, rip up grass---Grain farm.
4)Operators are your age ASRG and I am not that far behind you---Lets take the winter off and go south.

5)This is to some the final nail in the coffin for them especially those that needed PFRA pastures of "Intermingling". The unreasonable expectations with traceability and the RFID eartag sage. Rules and REgulations bye bye cow herd.

To those that are willing to stay with the cows---There appears to be huge opportunity---correct!!!!

[kato]

PFRA.. that's the next thing.

Personally, I think the government will start selling off the pastures some day. Whether it's sooner or later, it will happen. Once the numbers drop to the point that the pastures are not being used fully, don't anyone fool themselves into thinking their is any commitment to keeping them. The pastures in Manitoba already have to advertise for cattle, when they all used to have waiting lists. We were on a waiting list for one pasture for years, and never got in. Now they have to go looking for cows.

With the Harper government, everything is for sale, IMHO. Cattle producers have been proven to be way down from the top of the list of priorities in the scheme of things.

If deficit reduction becomes the holy grail of the Conservative government, like I think it's destined to be, they won't hesitate to put up the "For Sale" sign.

Put that on my list of predictions, along with the corporate welfare cheques that will be handed out to the big two, when numbers drop sufficiently that they start "requesting help to keep operating, or else they will pull out."

[Burbert]

You conspiracy people ARE A JOKE!
Government departments, agencies are
undergoing audits all the time, internal
external etc. Scumbags like fer example
enterpener Lord Conrad BLACK is a prime
example of greed in motion. Apparently he
is teaching business ethics in jail!!!!!!

[FarmRanger]

Burb, do you know the difference between an
internal and external audit? An internal audit is
like when the fox counts the chickens and issues
a statement to the farmer that everything is A-Ok.
An external audit is like when the farmer enters
the chicken coup equipped with a shotgun and
counts the chickens. If there are missing
chickens, the fox is in trouble.

The real conspiracy is why every gov't department
is subject to an external audit except the CWB.

[katoe]

The cwb has both an internal and external audit each year.

[FarmRanger]

And I have pigs flying past my window.

[ASRG]

Sadie
Traditionally raised cows have a hard time competing with grain on fairly decent land,at least today? That may change in the future, but the last few years have favored grain and canola.
I think a lot of people got turned off cattle after the BSE gong show....not just because of low prices......but how the government hung them out to dry? Blamed the farmer for their own governments ineptitude and forced them into all this RFID tags/age verification/ID premises stuff? Refused to pay for their failure to protect the health of the cattle herd and their bungling of the trade issues? Forced the cattlemen to sue them for damages and refused to settle out of court?
I certainly don't blame younger people for not wanting to raise cattle. The money isn't there and the government has a proven track record of not supporting the industry? As soon as any problem arises you can bet the government boys will be running away as fast as possible!

[kato]

Rant of the day. It's been a while. ;-)

I totally agree about their track record. Not just our government, but our society has forgotten the basic rule of survival... If you don't support the people who produce your food, and they can't make a living at it, then there will be no food.

Before anyone jumps on this as a request for "welfare", let me make it clear that support doesn't necessarily mean money. It can mean other things that are just as important, such as not putting barriers in the way of producers making a living, being there to defend your food supply from things like BSE, and even something as simple as LISTENING to us.

Lots of times when I read the news, I get the impression that we are so low on the list of things the government considers valuable that we are no more than an inconvenience. We don't count. Our opinions don't matter. We don't have the numbers to vote anyone out, so we are of no consequence....

Unless of course a large multinational corporation tells them that it's time to make sure their affordable supply of raw materials is secure. Then, and only then, action will be taken to make sure we don't all leave for town.