Innisfail cow sale

[ASRG]

I attended the bred cow sale at Innisfail yesterday. Some very fancy reputation red heifers topped out at $1600, but generally cow prices weren't extreme.
Lots of very useful mid age (5/6/7) cows in that $1000-1200 range. The bigger (1450 lb ) cows sold for more. Young cows (3&4) rarely broke the $1200 price....again depending on size and condition.
Lots of buyers.......but they seemed to be very disciplined in the price they would pay. A lot of the bidding got down to $10 at a time bids.

[T.N.T.]

Thank you for the report.

[T.N.T.]

That seems to tell me,that there are a lot of other farmers that don't think this falls calf prices were oh so great either.A lot of us old guys are just getting to the point that we don't feel like doing it anymore,being because of our age or just fed up with doing it for nothing,and the young guys just don't want to do it.So let the slaughter of the canadian beef herd continue.

[SADIE]

Watched Dryland Trading Co-op bred cow and heifer sale (Veteran Alberta) on Computer Dec 1.

Herd dispersal of Black Cows---The heart of the listing sold for $1550 (1400lb cows) to one owner with the Older selling down to $1000 & $1100.

Bred Heifer sale:

Sim/Red Angus---Reputation herd top end sold $1550.00 This ranch in the past sells privately off the farm (U PICK)
and the rest come to the auction barn.

Approx 160 Red angus cross bred heifers sold up to $1575.00 down. several lots at $1550. They did not announce the weight but the ligher groupd $1475---$1425 range. Off types and colors $1375--$1175.

I phoned former clients of mine who attended the sale. Crowd packed to the rafters with few bidders going back to local ranches.

[rsomer]

My numbers tell me cows are a better buy now then they were in 2009. 2009 was a drought year and bred cows were cheap but they are cheaper now.

Here are my numbers.

Good bred cow in 2009 was $1000
Good bred cow in 2011 is $1500

Winter feed cost in 2009 was $450
Winter feed cost in 2011 is $225

550 pound calf in 2009 was $575
550 pound calf in 2011 is $880

In 2009 bred cow plus feed minus the calf she is carrying was $875.

In 2011 it amounts to $845...$30 a cow cheaper.

In other words cows are a strong price but so is the calf she is carrying for next fall and feed is cheap. By spring the fall price of the calf she is carrying can be locked in with CPIP so that risk can be covered.

If you expect to get even these present prices (weaned prices could be higher in fall 2012 and 2013) for yet one more calf out of the cow plus the calf she is carrying then the people buying these bred cows are going to make nothing but money.

And by the way, feed prices cannot stay this low for long so the smart money should be buying up cheap hay for next year in order to hedge feed costs for the winter of 2012-2013.

Look for bred cow prices to continue to rise.

[ASRG]

I'm not all that great on crunching numbers, but I sure got the gut feeling that opportunity was knocking.
There were actually a few younger guys buying (if you consider 40-50 young....like I do), but a lot of old boys....and I'm thinking what is with that......are you buying for the grandkids!
I did notice the "old boys" were "conservative" buyers while the younger guys were more "liberal" with their money!

[grassfarmer]

rsomer, good to see you back posting again! Big mistake in your price comparison though - good bred cows in 2009 were not $1000 on average. Many, many good cows were $600-$650. I got the pick of a herd that had already been culled pretty hard and paid $625 on average for them - that was September 2009 not November but none the less I would say that was a way better buying opportunity than buying now. Winter feed didn't cost us $450 a head on them either - we only fed for 85 days if I recall correctly.

[T.N.T.]

When i was 40 to 50 i considered myself young also,but then already in my kids eyes and there friends i was old,LOL!!The old guys were probably being conservative but they have also been around the block a few times.Now don't get me wrong when i say this because i'm not trying to start a fight,but i would be willing to bet that some of those younger guys are playing with farm credits money and thats why they were being more liberal with there money.They seen to them a good deal and just wanted to get some of those cows bought up.

[kato]

The younger you are, the more time you have to pay the darn loan back. The older you are, the less attractive debt is.

We used to be brave as anything back in the day, but that kind of adventure is looking less attractive as time goes by.

[T.N.T.]

Isn't that the truth Kato!!

[SADIE]

R somer--I agree with you entirely

"I expect bred cow prices to continue to rise".

So many factors to consider when one makes the decision "what is the fair price to pay for a bred animal".

Closing out the 2011 calender year there are bred heifer sales and bred cow dispersals all across the country.

Being involved in a "mixed farming situation" and following the commodities there appears to be "Stagnation" or downward pressure on the grain sector going into 2012 and the new crop year. Lentils (Reds clearfield) are sitting with Australia pulling off a good crop. Prices low and most producers have it in the bin. Canola boom is under pressure and new canola seed record highs.

Lets look again at the cow-calf sector of a mixed farming operation.

1)Cull cow---and presently graining them till into 2012. What is her value presently and could be in 2012 with some flesh? Heard already $1000 plus for cull cow.

2)Open heifer at preg-checking, sold as open, good condition, up to $1200.00.

3)steer calves weaned off heifers bought last year 2010. Weaned 750-800lbs range. Selling Dec 12 at SLS weaned 60 days & at the 850 plus range.
What is that value??

4)What was the price of the finished carcass last spring and summer (Steers on the rail) worth? Hearing around the $1800 mark?

5)What is the price of "open replacement heifers" at present and going into winter spring 2012?

Summarize:

1)Reasonable and ample feed in most areas of the country.

2)Pasture availability all over the countryside.

3)Good to excellent salvage cow value.

4)good to strong feeder steer & feeder heifer and upwards indication of the open replacement heifer market.

5)Caution within the grain sector with apparent downward pressure on the grain markets.

What is a reasonable price for a bred cow? What is a reasonable price for a bred heifer (Reputation operation) with a longer timeline to work with?

Tomorrow is a large sale of bred heifers in Vermillion (Westman's).

MCQUANTOCK is in Vermillion on Dec 10 with another 800 head on offer (bred heifers)

[ASRG]

Sadie: I agree it all looks sweet! However........what happens if a "wreck" takes place?
Say FMD or say a meltdown in the world markets?
Will your government be there for you?
NO THEY WON'T! Very apparent in their attitude on BSE?
It's your money. Don't ever think this government is ever going to back you up.......because they have clearly shown, they won't! .......again it is your money...spin the wheel and take your chances!

[kato]

ASRG, your take on it is common among those of us who've lived through the roller coaster ride since 2003. I have lost count of the number of things that "would never happen" that actually did happen. As far as I can see, there are lots of things that could come up and blow it all to pieces, but who really knows the future. Maybe the something that "would never happen" this time is that things will get better and even improve. Wouldn't that be nice? Hard to believe, but nice.

I can see prices getting some higher, but they won't come without a lot of sleepless nights.

[SADIE]

Had to create some discussion on this Sunday. The bottom line to me is I want to continue to make use of my land whether it be "grains" or "livestock".
In the last few years land in this area has jumped "leaps and bounds"----will it stay up? could it fall? To me the best Mutual fund I could have invested in.

I believe some of us are in the same "age boat"----late 50s. I am not ready to "retire" yet.

Do you sit and wait for down prices, do you do the management thing and keep your cow-herd current? Bring in a few breds (young) and cull the "olds".

I could be 5-6 years away from having my own complete cow-herd dispersal sale.
My operation is to keep sourcing "bred heifers" ---that way I know my herd is current and has some youth to it.

I guess there is the feeling of "getting up in the morning, breathing fresh air and going outside and doing something that is your own on your own land, own property.

I always liked calving season anyway.

The grain side expansion is scary to me looking at the huge machinery expense to keep expanding in that direction

[ALLFARMER]

rsomer

Good to see you back!

Glad to see this beef page following bred cattle
sales closely this winter.