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    #25
    Get the purchase price of the Balzac facility right, get the business plan right, get the management team right and the need for government involvement disappears.

    The point has been raised about the packing plant industry getting government money in the past as if somehow two wrongs make a right. Reagonomics never worked, in my opinion. The theory that government dollars at the packing plant level will somehow trickle down to benefit the producers is a myth. It is socialism for the rich, free enterprise for the poor. Does it make any difference if the money flows to Cargill/XL or to this proposed startup?

    The point has been raised that it is only $20 million so what is the problem. And that there is a long history of government handing money to private ventures such as the magnesium plant at High River. Lets overlook the fact that the magnesium plant never got off the ground. The truth is that with enough government money (bridge financing if you will) behind the project this plant, or any plant, could operate indefinitely. It would take ongoing injections of the $20 million dollar government fix. The Ranchers Beef operation ran up a debt of $56 million and was only in operation a short while. The government backing/money would be required for at least ten years or longer as it would take that long for a naïve management team to go through the required learning curve, develop the required marketing channels and accrue the financial depth to operate without the government umbilical cord. There is a possibility that plant would never be viable without the support of the Province's treasury.

    Actually it would be more cost effective in the long term to simply nationalize the Lakeside plant as a going concern and get on with it. Or why stop there? Why not nationalize the Cargill High River plant as well and take over the world beef market? After all, our province has the financial resources to do that. Think of all the money that would trickle down to the producer level.

    Comment


      #26
      One thing that you have nailed is that there is no trickle down effect from the two private players in the province.

      There will be from a producer owned plant that is taking product off the continent and working outside the conventional markets. Especially for participants and subsequently for Cargill and NB customers as well. The only ones who will suffer or at least have to pick up their game and pay more for cattle are the Cargill and NB.

      I do agree with your first statement and am focused on those points. If you have been in business long enough however, you would know that exploring all options is crucial.

      All your fear about asking for more money after a loan is in place is due to historic events and your own personal desire to be right about something...

      Cheers and Happy New Year MGMT

      Comment


        #27
        "The only ones who will suffer or at least have to pick up their game and pay more for cattle are the Cargill and NB."

        Not trying to mock you Randy, but, Hahaha, such a minor point!

        They'll not likely object at all, will they?

        Because that's the biggest reason that new beef processing ventures fail - the old boys club won't let them in.

        Cattle prices can be plodding along at 80 cents a pound and when a new guy starts bidding on a few then all of a sudden by golly those same darn buyers somehow discover in their heart of hearts that they can actually pay 90 cents - golly why didn't I think of that sooner!

        That's exactly what happened a year or so ago when a small packer took over the defunct Gencor Foods plant in Kitchener. Jeepers all of a sudden Cargill needed a whole whack of cows too and while Cargill could absorb the higher price on a relatively small portion of their production, the new boy couldn't because it was on his whole supply.

        Your advantage is that you are not competing in the same market.

        Comment


          #28
          "Your advantage is that you are not competing in
          the same market."
          So what does that mean? You are selling into a
          different market? You still have to buy in the same
          market as far as I can see. Or are you implying that
          producer shareholders would have to surrender
          their cattle, at a lower than market price to "their"
          plant to make it profitable?

          Comment


            #29
            We certainly saw that over-competitive bidding with our involvement in SK. Cull cows
            rose several cents in proximity to the plant when a couple of others buyers got really
            competitive.
            If a higher value market(s) is/are secured then it is possible to pay a premium, however
            I believe a more sustainable model probably requires the contributors to participate in
            the final market, rather than having the "plant" take all the market risk. Shifting a
            mindset from dumping live calves to participating in a value initiative is a big one, so
            it will take some time to build, but I expect that is half the fun.
            Based on the cattle cycle and how things roll out in the global economy (timing and
            order of price changes) it may put a squeeze on things at the wrong time. That will be
            a management challenge to ensure the participants keep their eye on the big picture and
            to manage cash flows well.
            GF - I agree with your sentiments, but I know that commodity prices (even when high) are
            average prices and a lot of poor cattle are overpaid for, while still leaving value in
            the good cattle. Sorting that out will take cooperation between parties. Perhaps a CWB
            payment/final payment or a grid like Natural Valley tried to implement could assist.

            Comment


              #30
              I meant the market into which they are selling.

              Comment

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