South Korea Moves Closer To Allowing Beef From Canada.

[grassfarmer]

I'm not the one with the negative thoughts -
pollyana and all that.

[ASRG]

I can't remember where I read it but the article I'm thinking about was by some scientist type who said it isn't a question of "if Canada will get FMD.....but when". Apparently there is almost zero inspections of food coming into Canada anymore.....too busy making you take off your shoes and garbage like that!
What would a FMD outbreak do to the cattle herd in Canada? I would suggest it would be the nail in the coffin for a business that is already on the ropes?
Maybe I'm wrong? Despite a lot of interest right now in cows, my local auction mart owner tells me there are stiil a lot of people looking to leave the business. Kind of funny sitting in a cow sale and seeing all these old men 60-70 buying cows! Very few young ones?
Maybe we need to import some more young polyanna types!

[wilagro]

One point grassfarmer...I said that vaccination "masks the problem" NOT that it masks the disease. There is a difference.
Vaccination may be effective for the animals but it doesn't mean that the premises or the equipment is clean and the disease under control or eradicated.

[grassfarmer]

ASRG,
I think the risk is very high also. Not sure what the
inspection status of food coming in is - are you
talking "official" company imports of beef etc from
affected regions or personal importations of food?
One big problem in the UK is the illegal importation
of "bushmeat" typically from Africa. I've read that
some years as much as 10,000 tons might be
involved. Don't know if this occurs in Canada?
The checking of shoes is an important step though
- the FMD virus can survive international air travel
as long as it has a moist medium to hide in hence a
visitor to Canada that has been among infected
animals overseas could well introduce the disease
from dirt on his boots.

"What would a FMD outbreak do to the cattle herd in
Canada?"
Depends entirely on our preparation. Relying on a
19/20th century traceability solution (brands and
brand inspection) is the worst possible preparation.
How bad can it get? well it cost close to 10 million
head of animals in the UK largely due to their
unpreparedness. I'd like to think we could do better
here but the signs are not encouraging.
Maybe Kato could allay our fears by letting slip
some details of the covert plans made by producers
and producer organizations to deal with this?
In reality this is something producers will have no
input in once it occurs - it will be all CFIA and the
army if/when it gets out of control. Producers only
chance to have input is before an outbreak begins.

wilagro, you are right - I misread your comment and
apologize for misquoting it.

[kato]

One thing I know about is the plan for an immediate closure of the single road from Manitoba to Ontario, which would be the Trans Canada highway. It's already been set up and reported on the news here. Within minutes, the country would be cut in half. There is no other way to get from West to East without going through the U.S.

Now the question is, who will be on the right side of the inspection station at West Hawk Lake?

[burnt]

Well I guess it depends on whether one considers the glass half full . . .

[grassfarmer]

There was a strong economic case made for zoning
in the 2002 economic assessment of the cost of an
FMD outbreak in Canada.

http://www.animalhealth.ca/Uploads/UserFiles/File
/FOOTMOUTHFINALREPORT.pdf

It was a very good report hot on the heels of the
2001 FMD outbreak in the UK. Sadly there doesn't
seem to have been much progress made on
planning appropriate precautions since then other
than the zoning plan.
Their worst case scenario, large scale outbreak
model predicts a loss of over 10 million head of
animals and economic loss of around $46 billion.
I don't know what the final cost of BSE is reckoned
to be but believe the first two years were estimated
to have cost around $4 billion just for context.