Does anybody see any overall cow herd expansion

[smcgrath76]

PF - I tend to agree when you consider
returns to time and equity. It takes an
extra hour or two to seed and additional
quarter section, some time to combine,
storage and marketing don't take any
extra time. When you consider adding a
beef cattle enterprise to the mix, it
doesn't look too attractive. For
existing operations, it comes down to a
choice between ROI, value adding lower
cost grain and a return to labour. It
will be interesting to watch this shake
out over the next few years.
If you are careful about costs, and what
work you do, beef cattle are still a
good investment in my mind, but you have
to stay out of the tractor.

[T.N.T.]

Another reason this cow herd will never expand,how many young guys do you know that are or are trying to get into the cattle business?I know 3 guys that are under 30,maybe 6 in there mid to late 40's.So once us grey haired guys are either gone or retired who will take over?There is no next generation to take over where we left off.

[tweaker101]

We are trying to make a go without "DADS" money..both of us work off the farm and we are gaining ground but hey..Rome wasn't built in a day. As far as the work load ie calving we switched that to may/june and that works excellent and we bale graze and are thinking of trying to grow corn?. I guess as bad as this sounds I would like to be the lazy rancher as the cows can do all that they need by themselves. Without a doubt grain farming would be a pretty good deal....cruzzin the fields listening to the XM radio in your air conditioned palace..I think I would get bored going around and around....

[grassfarmer]

Funny how everyones a pessimist once prices
recover in the beef sector - or is it the old game of
bluff? trying to bluff your neighbour into selling his
cows so prices will be even higher for your own
calves?
The arguments about the investment needed to run
cows etc are all multiplied many times in the grain
sector. And the risk is many times greater. Cows can
get through droughts, wet years, late frosts, early
frosts, hot weeks in July, cold weeks in May with
relative ease. Just as you can seed another quarter
with little effort if you are equipped for grain
farming so you can run 30 more cows and another
bull. Maybe that's where all these bred cows are
going? I know of a few guys that are keen enough to
go contra - cyclical - they sold their cows in the
$600s in '09 and have bought cows back again for
$1200s this winter. Those are the guys that drive
the cattle cycle and likely never get ahead.
I just don't see how anyone can argue the cow/calf
sector is in a death spiral when bred cows are
selling at high prices and virtually none are going to
the packer. The facts just do not make that anything
other than maintaining herd size or possibly
increasing depending what happens with
replacement numbers.

[burnt]

Well I'm not a huge John Deere fan, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it by THAT name! LOL LOL


I'm thinking that google chooses what you see at the bottom of your page because I don't recall seeing a pig's ass!

[burnt]

Hey tweaker101, yup I got seeds for a money tree! Just send me a cheque for a couple hundred bucks and I'll let you in on the secret too!

(P.S. - limited time offer . . .)

[DogPatch]

No sense in buying expensive cows, to put on expensive land, to then calve in the winter time.

There is lots of land that could never be of any value unless it has a ruminant to graze it. Having said that, the price of that grazing only land also has to at a reasonable price to make sense.

I'm no expert but the right people for the job left the Beef Business when the banks and governments screwed them over with BSE

[grassfarmer]

So what made them "the right people for the job" Dogpatch versus those of us who are dedicated to the business we are in and have stuck with it?

[ASRG]

Between 1995 and 2001 there was a big expansion of cows. You literally couldn't lose money if you did things right.
2002 was a really dry year, especially out east and a lot of cows went down the road. Of course 2003 was BSE and it was a struggle for many years.
I suspect we are entering another period like 95-01, but who knows with this crazy world economy? I think the prudent thing to do would be to expand slowly, or maybe use the good cull prices to bring a few more heifers on line?
In my own case I'm getting to that age when I should quit, and the boy isn't too interested. If our government had been a little more supportive with the BSE wreck I think a lot of people wouldn't be so afraid to expand? I think a lot of people realized the government screwed us by allowing unsafe feeding practices and us cow/calf guys were left holding the bag!
I hope someday to get back some of the money I lost from the BSE gong show from the lawsuit.

[kato]

The cow herd in this country didn't used to be so big. In fact, at one time, it matched consumption pretty closely. The growth, especially in Manitoba came due to a perfect storm in the grain business. You Albertan's may not have noticed it, since losing the Crow didn't change your freight rates much, but there was a time, after the Crow was dropped, when you could ship oats from Manitoba and the returns wouldn't cover the freight. We heard of guys who actually shipped producer cars, and got a bill.

Is it any wonder they got into cows?? You've got to do something to try and make a living. And then a few years later another perfect storm came along known as BSE, and suddenly the cows were worth nothing. Each storm brought more consolidation, more people leaving the business, and fewer people on the farm.

Is it any wonder that the temptation to take the money and run is so strong? Faith in Agristability is almost non existent. It's unpredictable, and if a payout comes, it's a year after the fact. It also discourages diversity, which is dangerous all by itself. An overhaul is due. But it won't happen.