Does anybody see any overall cow herd expansion

[ProFarmer]

Not trying to be a negative fear monger here but are we really going to see any more cow herd expansion. Here in manitoba with a socialist greeny goverment ruling from inside the perimeter. We are getting negative acceptance of producing bigger herds in this province. On the producing beef side with hundreds of producers quitting or retiring and NO producers getting into the bussiness there will be no expansion coming from manitoba. Actually I will predict with lots of inside knowledge the cow herd will not just retract but will never expand because of high grain prices less farmers and those with cattle are just getting older...

[T.N.T.]

I agree with you a 100%,the canadian cattle herd will never be what it once was.

[SADIE]

Profarmer

I fully agree with you. The bred cow herd dispersal on Friday at SLS. The bred heifers will help hold the nos and there was about 60 --10% bred heifers.

The majority of the cows especially those in the D2-D3 shape----80% should have gone for slaugher.

What % will play our calving that puppy?

What % will have 0 milk or weak calf.

What % was really too old.

I said it before and will say it again now. The cow-herd is in a death spiral right now.

As the prices continue to rise on Bred cows, grain farmering presently is easier--or rent the land out. Producers with cow-herds have commented when they reach this $$$----BYE BYE.

Nothing but opportunity for those that want to pursue it. Now I got to convince one of my three to come home and take it on within the next 5-10 years.

PFRA bi-annual meeting tomorrow. One item on the agenda is RE-STRUCTURING Allotment rules.

[forage]

All you have to do is go to the auction market in southern Alberta and there are more white haired folks than there are charolais cattle coming thru the ring. Based on the average age group that still have cattle most are selling established cow herds that have gotten older along with their owners. Very few younger ranchers can afford to expand with the current land values and price of equipment , and higher operating cost. So yes I think the cow herd numbers well continue to slide.

[grassfarmer]

I don't understand your comment Sadie about
the "death spiral"How are we in a death spiral
now when bred cattle are trading at record
highs and nearly all going back into other
breeders herds?
You want to talk "death spiral" how about fall
/winter of 2009 in AB when good bred cows
were making $600 a bid above packer price and
many serious cattlemen questioning if there was
even a future for commodity beef production.

You seem also to buy into the belief that bred
heifers are always the "next great thing" and
that older/leaner cows should all go to the
packer. Just remember these older cows were all
heifers once and if they are poor as older cows
they were poor as heifers too. I agree there is
plenty garbage in the system but to improve
that takes a systematic approach to cattle
breeding, not running away buying high priced,
over-fed bulls and then feeding heifers big
enough so they look like queens going through
the ring.

[kato]

I think he means a "death spiral" for the national cowherd in general, not for individuals. Numbers are falling, and will continue to fall more. Lots of producers have decided a long time ago that "When cows get to $______ (fill in the blank), I will sell them and call it quits." Those guys are doing that now. Therefore, the dispersals aren't done yet.

For those of us who were block headed enough to refuse to cave in over the past almost ten years, the rewards are long overdue. However, numbers will never go back to what they were unless we get the same conditions that caused the expansion in the first place. And those conditions would start with really really cheap grain.

The odds of that? Who knows? We've all learned that what you think can never happen, actually does happen. And it's followed by more things that you thought would never happen and which also do.

[AllisWD45]

All of theses topics re cattle herd reduction seem to
mention grain. What does everyone think is it the price
of grain at the point that it can't be economically fed
to cattle with all of the other competition for it or the
price of grain is driving cattle acres to becoming grain
acres as an alternative

[tweaker101]

Yup, I think there is lots of opportunity out there as long as you have a money tree in your back yard...but with that said it sure is great that lots of the older cattle people can get paid a decent amount for the animals. Does any one a seeds for the money tree?...lol. We are working on expanding our herd and landbase which is hard as we are in grain land and that puts forth many challanges.

[ProFarmer]

For a younger grain producer, the thought of sleepless winternights calving,phone calls saying " your cows are out" When you are on vacation, combining or seeding The hugh investment in time, money,and patience to get into livestock at the peak of the cycle is a very danting task to say the least. Established operations with the man power are going to get their reward for the hardships brought on by BSE, and by sticking it out their reward will be good prices for now but when the fuel bill come in and with the fert price today the extra money will be soon gone. Those buying 2000 dollar bred cows now are taking the same risks as the one buying 1250 dollar cows the week before the wreck.The young grain farmers with 12 to 13 dollar canola, and now a free wheat market will make more by marketing their grain smarter than taking on the investment of 2500 per cow to just get into the production of calves before any investment in land and time....

[ALLFARMER]

If you own the right cows run the right bulls calve
on the grass or feed in the evening you won't
have to be up all night checking cows in the
blowing snow for calves.

I see the cow herd stabilizing. But like the other
guy said it's about the money, look at the
investment required to run a 250 head herd 1.5
to 2 million. See any 20 year olds getting
anywhere near that kind of money without dad's
help. Look at the FCC news letter all the young
farmers they lend to....then read how mom and
dad farmed and "helped them out" ya because
it's a FCC requirement

[smcgrath76]

PF - I tend to agree when you consider
returns to time and equity. It takes an
extra hour or two to seed and additional
quarter section, some time to combine,
storage and marketing don't take any
extra time. When you consider adding a
beef cattle enterprise to the mix, it
doesn't look too attractive. For
existing operations, it comes down to a
choice between ROI, value adding lower
cost grain and a return to labour. It
will be interesting to watch this shake
out over the next few years.
If you are careful about costs, and what
work you do, beef cattle are still a
good investment in my mind, but you have
to stay out of the tractor.

[T.N.T.]

Another reason this cow herd will never expand,how many young guys do you know that are or are trying to get into the cattle business?I know 3 guys that are under 30,maybe 6 in there mid to late 40's.So once us grey haired guys are either gone or retired who will take over?There is no next generation to take over where we left off.

[tweaker101]

We are trying to make a go without "DADS" money..both of us work off the farm and we are gaining ground but hey..Rome wasn't built in a day. As far as the work load ie calving we switched that to may/june and that works excellent and we bale graze and are thinking of trying to grow corn?. I guess as bad as this sounds I would like to be the lazy rancher as the cows can do all that they need by themselves. Without a doubt grain farming would be a pretty good deal....cruzzin the fields listening to the XM radio in your air conditioned palace..I think I would get bored going around and around....

[grassfarmer]

Funny how everyones a pessimist once prices
recover in the beef sector - or is it the old game of
bluff? trying to bluff your neighbour into selling his
cows so prices will be even higher for your own
calves?
The arguments about the investment needed to run
cows etc are all multiplied many times in the grain
sector. And the risk is many times greater. Cows can
get through droughts, wet years, late frosts, early
frosts, hot weeks in July, cold weeks in May with
relative ease. Just as you can seed another quarter
with little effort if you are equipped for grain
farming so you can run 30 more cows and another
bull. Maybe that's where all these bred cows are
going? I know of a few guys that are keen enough to
go contra - cyclical - they sold their cows in the
$600s in '09 and have bought cows back again for
$1200s this winter. Those are the guys that drive
the cattle cycle and likely never get ahead.
I just don't see how anyone can argue the cow/calf
sector is in a death spiral when bred cows are
selling at high prices and virtually none are going to
the packer. The facts just do not make that anything
other than maintaining herd size or possibly
increasing depending what happens with
replacement numbers.

[burnt]

Well I'm not a huge John Deere fan, but I wouldn't go so far as to call it by THAT name! LOL LOL


I'm thinking that google chooses what you see at the bottom of your page because I don't recall seeing a pig's ass!