Does anybody see any overall cow herd expansion

[burnt]

Hey tweaker101, yup I got seeds for a money tree! Just send me a cheque for a couple hundred bucks and I'll let you in on the secret too!

(P.S. - limited time offer . . .)

[DogPatch]

No sense in buying expensive cows, to put on expensive land, to then calve in the winter time.

There is lots of land that could never be of any value unless it has a ruminant to graze it. Having said that, the price of that grazing only land also has to at a reasonable price to make sense.

I'm no expert but the right people for the job left the Beef Business when the banks and governments screwed them over with BSE

[grassfarmer]

So what made them "the right people for the job" Dogpatch versus those of us who are dedicated to the business we are in and have stuck with it?

[ASRG]

Between 1995 and 2001 there was a big expansion of cows. You literally couldn't lose money if you did things right.
2002 was a really dry year, especially out east and a lot of cows went down the road. Of course 2003 was BSE and it was a struggle for many years.
I suspect we are entering another period like 95-01, but who knows with this crazy world economy? I think the prudent thing to do would be to expand slowly, or maybe use the good cull prices to bring a few more heifers on line?
In my own case I'm getting to that age when I should quit, and the boy isn't too interested. If our government had been a little more supportive with the BSE wreck I think a lot of people wouldn't be so afraid to expand? I think a lot of people realized the government screwed us by allowing unsafe feeding practices and us cow/calf guys were left holding the bag!
I hope someday to get back some of the money I lost from the BSE gong show from the lawsuit.

[kato]

The cow herd in this country didn't used to be so big. In fact, at one time, it matched consumption pretty closely. The growth, especially in Manitoba came due to a perfect storm in the grain business. You Albertan's may not have noticed it, since losing the Crow didn't change your freight rates much, but there was a time, after the Crow was dropped, when you could ship oats from Manitoba and the returns wouldn't cover the freight. We heard of guys who actually shipped producer cars, and got a bill.

Is it any wonder they got into cows?? You've got to do something to try and make a living. And then a few years later another perfect storm came along known as BSE, and suddenly the cows were worth nothing. Each storm brought more consolidation, more people leaving the business, and fewer people on the farm.

Is it any wonder that the temptation to take the money and run is so strong? Faith in Agristability is almost non existent. It's unpredictable, and if a payout comes, it's a year after the fact. It also discourages diversity, which is dangerous all by itself. An overhaul is due. But it won't happen.

[smcgrath76]

My previous post may have sounded
pessimistic, and it was not intended
that way. It was more a case of I can
readily see why you would not expand the
cowherd. As for the grain farming
investment, most grain farms are already
parts of the arms race and their
equipment can readily handle more acres
(making it cheaper for the whole farm).
The addition of cows requires more
capital, not less.
Grain farming is riskier but the risk
management products are also a lot
better in my estimation.
For those that know me I am generally
always an optimist and we continue to
work on cowherd expansion and
improvement. We have taken some licks
the last few years on different
ventures, but our costs today are at
least 50% lower than they were in 2003,
our cow herd is bigger, and the overall
quality is better. We are also starting
more diversification out of the
commodity marketplace. Things are
pretty exciting in the beef business
around here.

[ProFarmer]

S76 where are you getting your fuel,electricity,machinery,land tax,rent,labor,insurance,vet supplies, cheaper than they were 10 years ago???

[Cattleman]

Profarmer, the amount of fuel, electricity, machinary, and labour used PER cow, should all be down today compared to 10 years ago in order to maintain margins.

I think the cow herd will expand, but at a slower rate than the prices suggest, due to all the reasons mentioned above. We have land to put more cows back onto.

[Cattleman]

Just to clarify. Where I said "we" I meant our farm.

[smcgrath76]

PF - our cow numbers are up, our fuel use is WAY down, and our vet costs are under control. Our
veterinary costs are primarily vaccine only. These make big differences. 10 years ago we were
probably feeding cows 180 days or more. Now we are closer to 30 or less. We put up all our own feed
for roughly 200 cows and 150 backgrounders, and our fuel bill is right around $50 per cow per year
(backgrounders would be free) (I am expecting lower in 2012 as we didn't push a lot of snow).
We own less than $40,000 in farm equipment and have nearly 0 depreciation as a result. We are also
much more productive as we continually improve our grazing systems. We are typically taking 75 AUGD
off our tame pasture that was seeded 25 years ago, and pulling 160 AUGD on our swath grazing with no
inputs other than cultivation, seed and cutting. This drives our costs WAY down.
Some costs such as electricity are up a bunch (January will be more than our entire winter diesel
bill), but we are working on plans to change that as well. We track our labour, and we currently work
less and net more than we did 10 years ago.
I am not tooting our horn, just saying that we employ a lot of different solutions to problem solving
around here. We share a lot of the same frustrations over costs/value/etc. but we are 100% dedicated
to cost control while still adding value, and we have a family history of being adaptive and fairly
cutting edge. Running faster hasn't worked here very well, so we now try to run smarter and be
creative. We probably spend as much time reading and researching as we do checking cows.

[ASRG]

Your numbers make sense, Sean. You have your ducks in a row....you'll make it.

[SADIE]

Sean--you are certainly cutting edge inthe industry. And after meeting you in Saskatoon (2011)----young and with a young family----you got it made.

Keep it up.

[ASRG]

Sean: Just wondering how you are considering cutting your electricity bill?

[smcgrath76]

ASRG - a couple of things...
1. we are looking at our current
contract and options
2. we are swapping out light bulbs to
CFB and or LED bulbs (seems like a small
thing but it adds up
3. we are looking at alternative ways to
heat waterers
4. we are putting a $100 kijiji door on
our feedroom for the odd days we do have
to start a tractor (Bale grazing saves a
lot of block heater power)
5. we are putting switches on our
automatic yard lights
6. we are actively and aggressively
investigating going off the grid or grid
intertie power (challenge with inter-tie
is we still have to overcome the monthly
service charges)

We use a tool here that I came across in
E-Myth and it really works. If you are
serious about cutting costs, find out
your biggest cost and then declare war.
Combined with asking the "7 whys" the
results have been pretty good (if you
are doing something ask yourself why,
when you answer ask why to your answer.
If you can do that 7 times successively
it is probably a good practice to
continue).

[grassfarmer]

So what does the $100 kijiji door do? I'm curious.