Does anybody see any overall cow herd expansion

[smcgrath76]

GF - it is a 12 x 12 foot overhead door
that cost $100. It will reduce our need
to plug in for as long if we do need to
start a tractor and opens the option to
add something like wood heat to the
structure. We park our tractor in a
feedroom to a barn built in 1917, so a
door makes a big insulatory difference.

[riders2010]

You mean that was a real pig's ass, jeez the neighbor thought that was something to do with the wheat growers and the wheat board. He kept mumbling something about them all being full of shit.

[RShields]

There has been a n embarrassing "shrinkage" in the cow herd because the numbers just haven't worked for the commodity producer.
From 2005 to 2010 most commodities have risen spectacularly. Gold went up 225%, Rubber 300%, Cotton 280% and oil is always in the spot lite at 116%
In that time corn went up 210% Wheat 170% Lamb 67% and even wool improved 39%.
Beef went up less than 30%. No wonder it was almost embarrassing to admit you had cows at home.
We seem to be on the right track very recently to close some of that gap. Yet all the Naysayers claim the market can't support any more price rise.
Every dog has it's day.
The question is where are we headed,not can we get our costs below what an off farm job will support.

[ProFarmer]

sm76 are you some back to the nature off road bush man. I beleive my family should have all the conveniences of the modern world. Not skrimping and saving like some old partridge family tv show... If your shop doesn't even have a door whf do you do with any money you make... sure you can make things work on the cheap but 40,000 for machinery is basically wore out junk that would be hard for a son or daughter to take over and use. There is pride in using more modern machinery in this day and age.

[ProFarmer]

Plus where do stats canada get their # of cows in manitoba from. I donnot get asked! They say manitoba is retaining heifers. Not in this area. Drove 200 miles yesterday and never saw 1 new yard of cattle but saw lots and I mean lots of bulldozed fences broken up pastures and empty yards even the large corporate beef farm south of RMNP has dumped half of its herd...There is no rebuilding of the cowherd going on in southern Manitoba period, Just a slow death like a small town disappearing...

[tweaker101]

ProFarmer it would be great to have the new equipment but I would rather give my kids a shot at farming with no debt that would be a bigger pride thing for me?. We only run minimal equipment and rent and hire out anything else that we need done to keep our costs down.

[burnt]

RShields - you make some strong points. Back in 2010 when prices were starting to recover, a mineral salesman asked me if I was going to start rebuilding the herd. I told him "The industry doesn't deserve for the herd to rebuild" and I stand by that statement today.

It is true that we have been forced to learn efficiencies like never before. We have made changes here, collectively and as an individual, that have cut some costs significantly. Yet that can only take an operation so far, and in some parts of the country it still isn't enough.

We are just nicely back to pre-BSE values! And some costs, which just cannot be eliminated, have more than doubled!

For those who have learned how to make it work, whether by uber-efficiency or by having no other option for their land, I take my hat off to you and actually look on with a certain degree of envy.

[ASRG]

I think the meat counters in this country are meeting resistance on beef prices? I'm not saying premium type beef like R.Kaisers or grassfarmers are necessarily going to experience that resistance, but definitely commodity beef will?
People will buy hamburger or pork or chicken if that steak gets too high.
In the USA this resistance is driving more and more commodity beef into the export market. What happens if the export trade dries up....or some garbage like FMD or BSE brings it to a screeching halt?
Often I deal with landowners who are realizing over $550-580/acre/year in gross income(3 to 4 year rotation) with grain and oilseeds on dryland in Alberta. I won't speculate what the net income might be...because it probably is all over the map!
It is my personal opinion cattle are mostly viable on land unsuited to grain production and I think guys like Sean have the right attitude of considering every dime you put into cattle production. Sometimes that means running older equipment and especially not owning equipment!
Years ago I went to a "Pursuing Profits" beef seminar and the speaker(a banker) said "The biggest drag on profits is owning iron.....and the desire to own more!"

[smcgrath76]

PF - not sure where you get the idea I live a backwoods lifestyle. Don't need a
new tractor if I don't put any hours on it (around 12 so far since the first of
November). Older does not necessarily = worn out. In fact the JD had a complete
motor job a couple of years ago and runs like new.
I carry more pride in the quality of our cattle and our grass than I ever will in
a piece of steel, so it is not a big deal to me. We pay our bills with net (not
gross) so that is what we work on. We could bale faster with a $50,000 baler, but
I would have to gross an extra $10000 a year to make the payments and wouldn't
have any more net. I am not sure I like that idea very much. We are not averse
to new equipment as long as we can figure out a way to make it generate enough
revenue to justify it (eg: working oil field leases or custom baling 8 months a
year).
Not to PF - in general I worry about an attitude of entitlement. We live a modern
life with high speed internet, satellite TV, and use a lot of cutting edge
technology every day in our cattle operation. There is nothing wrong with saving
money or being concerned about the environment. One of the pitfalls I see in
general is that a lot of people live outside their means and have "modern
conveniences" but don't have quality of life. I hope I am lucky enough to have
both.

[perfecho]

Heard an interesting report the other day that said some better cuts are roughly the same price as a few years ago, due to countries buying some of the "wasted" cuts in previous years. Find this interesting. We eat our own beef here, so I can't validate the report.
One concern is if beef becomes to pricey, trade restrictions may be lowered ir deals made to give lower cost beef to consumers....it certainly has happened in the past.

[kato]

ProFarmer, no one asked us either. We're keeping heifers, sure, but it's only to replace the cows that have gotten old in the years that they weren't worth culling. The herd is down from five years ago, and we're having enough trouble just keeping it from getting smaller, let alone expanding it.

I'm not sure if I could count all the neighbours who've gotten out of cows without writing it on a list to keep track. There are than many of them.

Grain farming is not an option for us, since it takes a pretty good sized land base to support the equipment needed. When we got married, we had lots of neighbours who farmed grain, and had cattle on the side. Now we've got lots of neighbours who have either sold out to the four or five big grain farmers still around, or have rented to them. And hardly of them has a cow now. Only hobby herds. There are more farmyards with non farmers living in them, than with farmers. If the farms are farther from town, then the old yards have been bulldozed.

Rural depopulation in action. Right before our eyes.

[ASRG]

Kato: I'm probably about in the same situation as you. You are probably a little more agressive in the bringing of cows into an operation....whatever....?
How do you see your future playinmg out? None of us are getting any younger?

[SADIE]

"O GIVE ME A HOME, WHERE THE CATTLE USED TO ROOM"

WATCH THIS BABY PLAY OUT. COW HERD CYCLE----PRICE KEEPS GOING UP MORE & MORE COW HERD SALES. EACH TURN IS THE SALE---%SOLD OFF AS SLAUGHTER.

THE SMALLER, 70PLUS operators with 40-50 cows, grazing coolies, did it for something to do, a hobby. They were welcomed customering is a rural veterinary clinic because they used a clinic more. The big dream co-orporate cow operations do not pick up all the slack. Employment on those operations is a problem. Death loss on those operations a problem.

Regulations are the key problem. It killed the Pig industry in the 70s & 80s. Eartag regulations, attempt at fines on laws that cannot be achieved with tags not meant to be used in environmental conditions below 0 celcius, Talk about Biosecurity----The question is WHAT BULLSHIT IS NEXT???