Grain / Cattle Market Test Again

[Kodiak]

Hey Errol, I suspect you are right. A correction is ahead of us. Could even be severe.
BUT. Timing is everything. In early December with Canola sub$500, it looked like the good times were all behind us. Now at $80 higher, that wasn't the case.
So while I know you are right, when do you think this is going to happen? It could, no WILL, make quite a difference.

[lesm]

I could always predict the markets with
almost 100 percent accuracy,however my
timing was horrible. If someone could
predict the weather, we could all be
better marketers. With all the
volatility in the world, financial and
climatic, I'm reluctant to hold any
position. Interesting times.

[errolanderson]

Kodiak . . . you are right, timing is
everything.

Typically, I can look like a donkey for
quite a while, but evolution of commodity
funds has made markets more volatile and
much tougher to access. Have to rely on
fundamentals ultimately, sort out market
noise and use a 15 year old broken ruler
as my technical indicator. No magic here.

[bucket]

errol

What happens when you link your historical trade data to that of the historical weather patterns?

It wasn't that long ago the western canada couldn't produce a 10 million tonne canola crop, what happens if the weather reduces the crop to sub 13 MMT???

[riders2010]

Why would you lay a historical weather map down? According to bgmb good farmers grow a good crop every year regardless of weather. Therefore you need to lay down a map of stupid farmers and good farmers and then you would see what the yield expectations for canola are next year! Cannot help but laugh as I write this. When we look at reality of yields what is the first thing we all look at WEATHER. When some look at the margins of stability program they say it is the stupid farmer.

Sorry to interrupt your conversation. But of course the weather map should be used and it would be interesting.

[errolanderson]

bucket . . . if Cdn production is
threatened by weather, canola prices
will go to a sharp inverse to soyoil.
But canola buyers will start to look
elsewhere and substitute veg oil
supplies. Canola prices would go up, but
canola export demand may falter . . .
it's all about the law of supply and
demand.

Guys . . . I've mentioned this before,
but if stock markets heave, commodities
heave no matter the supply or the
demand. The battle for supply will just
happen at a lower price point. The sky
is not the limit for cash canola prices.

[bucket]

Sure there are better varieties of canola but when that flower blasting starts, it ain't pretty.

Just saying the last few years has been very good canola growing seasons and not within the historical data.

Saskatchewan rarely gets 20 inches of rain in a year let alone in three months.

Even back to a normal weather pattern, it would leave the canola crop short for demand with a record acreage.IMHO.

[Kodiak]

Whether a market break happens in 6 days, in 6 weeks, or in 6 months, makes all the difference in the world.
Predicting a market break is easy. Predicting 'when' is more difficult and more important.

[furrowtickler]

If canola slides to $9, some around here will be sweating bullets.... Alot of land rents were based off very high(over ave) yields and $12 canola. They best be locking in asap before that happens. And it is still very very dry here - missed this last snow event again.

[bucket]

A foot of snow is just a pain in the ass. I would rather it been an inch of rain.