Anyone getting worried yet?

[ALLFARMER]

Just checked the cattle market chart (canola
market way up again) chicago cattle market
tanking!

Starting to think I should have sold these guys at
$1700 like my accountant said.

[smcgrath76]

Another buying opportunity comes around...

[kato]

Sold two potloads of feeders this week. We had an hour to make the decision on the bid, and we took it. The next day the bid would have been off three cents. We're not worried about those ones any more. We did OK.

I bet if we went out to buy some to replace the others tomorrow, they'd be up! That's always the way it seems to go.

[rkaiser]

Anyone notice the boxed price rise just prior to this skid in fat futures? Where did all the defenders of convetional packer profits and innocence go.

[ALLFARMER]

What's doin ok Kato ....weight, sex, $??

[kato]

There's Manitoba good, and there's Alberta good. We live under a different set of rules than you do. We sell cheaper than you, but we buy cheaper too. I'd rather not disclose the price, or the terms, but we made about $175 dollars each.

That's OK.

But it's getting very scary to keep doing this. The possibility of big losses is always there, and the more they cost going in, the higher the stakes. As feedlots start to fall, and I predict that will start to happen any time now, we're going to hear lots of reasons why they don't want to pay much for calves.

But that still doesn't mean it's not worth keeping cows. It just means we need to keep up the quality on our calves if we're going to get ahead.

Lately we've been seeing lots of evidence that guys have been slacking off on that. They've been getting paid well for non vaccinated, non castrated, roughly raised, and poor gaining calves, simply because the numbers are down. They've been told that a black paint job means the calves will sell themselves. That is just not true. We bought calves last fall that were within 15 pounds of each other, and which are over 200 pounds apart now. The only thing they have in common any more is the black paint job.

We're getting tired of bringing home other people's mismanagement and having to correct it. It's expensive, and frustrating. I'm sure that I'm not the only one who's going to be bringing up these things as cattle get more and more expensive to buy. Even with higher prices, the really good calves are still going to be the ones you want to be selling. The stakes are so high, that nobody will want to buy calves that look even the slightest bit shaky.

[grassfarmer]

I don't understand kato - I thought that was how you
made your money - buying things well that others
were selling poorly and then turning around and
selling packages of sorted up yearlings? Are you
telling me that you could make $175/head profit on
buying good calves and selling good yearlings this
winter?

[ALLFARMER]

What Kato is saying is if the calves that should
be discounted (appropriately) are not, leave them
and take the good stuff.

I can't see where MB power or fuel would be
cheaper but ya definitely wages, land cheaper.

If your making 175/head your doin very well Kato
x that by 1000 head ....175,000 profit for only
1000 head???? Doin very well

[kato]

I doubt you could have made that on top end calves. However, we've seen in the past couple of years that the health status in particular is dropping steadily on the calves we've been buying. Guys are cheaping out on their vaccination programs, and it seems to be getting worse every year. That's what is getting frustrating, even though there is money to be made at the end... at least this time, anyway. These calves could have made even better money than they did. We're getting really tired of treating sick calves that really shouldn't be getting sick. And we're really really tired of looking at calves suffering unnecessarily.

I can't count how many times someone has sat with Hubby at the auction mart and proudly said, "I don't have any problems with my calves, so I don't bother vaccinating my cows." Sure, THEY don't have any problems, but when those calves with the uneducated immune systems hit the road, they are a bunch of ticking time bombs. Their mothers weren't vaccinated, and they weren't either other than maybe a blackleg shot. That's fine if they are going to spend their lives at home, safe and sound, but if they're destined for a public auction mart, it just won't do.

BTW, Hubby makes sure that those calves don't get a bid. With the high risks involved in buying these feeders, there will be lots more demand for some kind of homework to be done before they hit the sales. Guys who are buying these $1000.00 calves are not going to come back for more if they die on them. It's not worth it.

[kato]

Yup, ALLFARMER, we were happy in the end, after all the drama. But we sure don't have 1000 head, only 175. But it still worked out. Kept us out of mischief.

[burnt]

Well Kato, that's worth a lot in your case!