Are prices going up or down?

[ALLFARMER]

If you look at Chicago futures their tanking. My
cattle buyer on the other hand wants 1200$ for
850lb open heifers????????

[grassfarmer]

I don't think you can use Chicago futures to second guess current/future price trends for breeding cattle in Alberta. Well you can - but it's not going to be very applicable.

[ASRG]

$1200 for a 850 lb. heifer is a little bit more than market price (Ropin the Web-website)?
I was talking to a guy last week, who lives out by Cornation. He bought 300 heifers at 900 lbs. for $1200. He has them out with bulls and told me he did the same thing last year...when he sold them all for $1650. He thinks he will ask $1750 this year.

[ALLFARMER]

So if I can have my pick at 1200$ I should pay
up?? Maybe I need to take the 6hr trip south
again next week. I have a hard time believing out
of 1100 head he couldn't find me any in this last
sale.

[kato]

Actually you should go to the sale and sit beside him. He's telling you what he wants you to hear, and trusting that you'll take his word for it.

For all you know he's got ten other orders. We've been buying cattle forever it seems. Buyers can be good, if you are the only one with an order for a certain type of animal. However, if he's buying for himself, or has another order or two to fill, you really don't know for sure what he will send you. He could want you to raise your bid so he can send the cheaper ones in another direction.

We've had to quit using a couple of buyers because they decided to buy the same calves as us. We ended up with the second cuts, excuses why they cost too much, and unfilled orders. You should not have to sit beside the buyer, but Hubby did it or we would have gotten nothing.

When it comes to something like a replacement type heifer, I'd want to be there to see them in the ring anyway. We have a buyer now who buys us feeders, but when it comes to heifers, Hubby goes to the sale and buys them himself.

[burnt]

Why not put a few feelers out and buy them directly from someone with a sizable herd of reputation cows? Might as well give him/her a premium instead of moving cattle through a sale barn and paying unnecessary trucking and commission.

And the guy with the cows will know who should go into a breeding herd and who should end up in a feedlot.

[grassfarmer]

Burnt, You touched on something that I thinks being
missed by Allfarmer with this strategy. The quality of
heifers bought and who will buy them eventually.
Putting together a group of 850lb female feeder cattle
and then expecting them to sell for record high
dollars as bred heifers depends on their being an
equally gullible buyer. I don't think there are the
number of guys left in the industry to buy just
anything thats female and bred. Maybe in 2001-2
that would have worked. I don't see many newcomers
to the industry and many of the survivors tend to
breed their own replacements or buy quality heifers
from a known reputable source. Not many have been
able to stand the cost of doing a 50% cull on their
replacement heifers once they discover they were
terminal not maternal.
I'd be real careful with this strategy Allfarmer because
I could see it backfiring - $1200 heifers that bring
$1200 in the fall and all the work and investment will
be for nothing.

[gcreekrch]

Who are you dealing with AllFarmer?

I tend to agree with GF on this issue, more so as the days go by and I see what some speculators are putting bulls with. There was a load of Douglas Lake cows (older than 3) that sold for 1.0150 2 weeks ago at Valley Auction in Armstrong. If those wild old bags couldn't raise a calf on their own I doubt if someone trying to farmer calve them will do much better and will likely have to put his life on the line every time he goes to help out.
Way to many heifers being bred in this province for the local demand. Freight to AB about $120 per head. I would rather own a 6-10 year old cow with a calf at side for the 16-1700 they are selling for.

[ALLFARMER]

Pay 1200 now or 1700 this winter. Yes at fall
preg check some will be open and still only be
worth the 1200 but I already have the bulls and
more than enough grass. I am building a herd
not at this to sell them this winter for a quick
buck. The 90 heifers I did this with last year
worked very good.

[ASRG]

In central and southern Alberta there is grass to burn, so it is no wonder heifers suitable for breeding are high?

ALLFARMER, you have a pretty good idea that bred heifers are going to be in that $1700 range this fall? $1200 for a 850 lb. heifer right now seems like a money maker to me!

You might get some dogs in the mix. Personally I'd stick with Angus type heifers......and don't buy any wild psycho ones!

[grassfarmer]

Allfarmer, If you are keeping them rather than selling
them I'd be doubly concerned about the quality of
what you are buying.
ASRG, you have more confidence in breed names than
I do. What does "Angus type" mean anymore? red or
black? Beyond that "Angus" seems to cover every type
available in every breed from Jersey to Charolais.

[smcgrath76]

In answer to the question at the start
of the thread - Yes.
With prices getting fairly high, the
risk of them going down is outweighing
them going up on our operation. I agree
about buying auction heifers on a spec
such as black/850 pound/AN type (unless
it is a special or dispersal type of
sale). We have never had great luck
buying heifers or even cows at auction,
but have had some very good private
purchases. The price is usually better
that way too as you are saving
commission, controlling quality,
reducing trucking and better negotiating
price. If cows were cheap maybe you can
afford to take the risk. When they get
pricey, knowing what you are getting is
of value.

[kato]

We've also had our best luck with private purchases, especially with bred cows.

But the debate may be all academic anyway. I don't know about Alberta, but here in Manitoba I doubt that you could even find a group of heifers for sale privately. That's something that needs to be done much earlier in the year. Collecting them up at a sale from multiple homes could be the only option other than not buying them at all.

I don't remember the last time I saw an ad for heifers for sale privately. It's been months, at least. You'd almost have to go knocking on doors to find them. I think I may have seen some Angus heifers advertised a couple of months ago, but we're not interested in them anyway. ;-)

[ASRG]

While I agree you probably won't find any private heifers at this time of year, don't discount all those auction heifers? There are a lot of old men in the cattle business, just waiting to pull the trigger, if the price is right! They might not want to deal privately....easier to just send them to the sale barn?
I assume ALLFARMER's buyer has a fairly good idea of what might make a cow? Yes, he very well might get some real dogs....but he might also get some pretty outstanding cows!

grassfarmer: On the Angus thing? Apparently the "new trend" is back to the red ones? The guy I was talking to from Cornation says close to $100 difference on open breeding heifers!
I hear you on the "variable" Angus types. That isn't necessarily a bad thing....let's a person pick out what they basically prefer within the breed? Personally I buy bulls from a local (black angus) and they work for me. I don't know if there are better ones....all I know is his cows are run tough (out on swaths, rough bush pasture, he doesn't help cows calve or suck, no poor feet or udders)and his family has been raising Angus for close to 80 years. Top that off with an owner who is as honest as can be and doesn't need the money....well like I said "it works for me".....and incidently for a lot of my neighbors!

If I really wanted to crank up my income I would probably buy a Charlais bull. The char cross calves are really back in favor now? Personally I always found Charlais bulls enjoy fighting too much...always hurting themselves in a multi bull pasture.....but maybe I just wasn't lucky or something? I did appreciate those big tan calves on sale day!

[kato]

A lot of good heifers hit the auction mart this year.

Around here, the buyers at the sales could outbid locals on everything, so you could easily get as much if not more at the auction mart than privately. And no worries about bounced cheques, or guys coming back and complaining about the cattle after their poor management caused problems.