Cattle Bids Turning Up

[errolanderson]

good discussion on value of hay . . . .

changing gears into the feeder cattle
futures, the Nov contract breaking
higher now. The chart technicals suggest
move toward $150/cwt, maybe higher.
We'll know soon on extent of this
rebound.

Corn technicals to me suggest an 80
cent/bu pullback top to bottom is now
in-progress. Dec corn to $7.70 -
$7.75/bu area? Major support may be as
low as $6.80/bu, but this is may not be
seen for a few months.

Interesting shift in market dynamics in
just one week.

[ASRG]

Green Valley: I too am a baby boomer. When I quit I'm never going back into cows?
The fact is cows are a lot of work?
It's just peachy for us baby boomers to run cows by cutting back on numbers....but does it make economic sense for young guys who have to pay the bills and service debt?
Sooner or later us old farts got to retire?
I don't think there are enough young guys who are dumb enough to raise cows....or can afford to?
Charlie: As someone who has raised cattle all my life, I find as I get older I prefer chicken or fish to beef....especially when that eating experience sometimes isn't all that good? With chicken I get a predictable product.....a steak can be exceptional......or it can be like eating an old boot! I never eat beef in a restaurant.

[grassfarmer]

Discussed this with quite a few people from all over
the US last week. A few comments came up that
indicate different potential outcomes. Cost of gain
with $8 corn is said to be around $1.50/lb. Areas of
shortage include the Five Rivers feedlot in Colorado
where they traditionally buy standing corn for silage
from local farmers - having to bid $80/ton standing
to get it.
The majority of the crop already harvested in the
north had the straw chopped as usual so not looking
to save every last bale of feed. Lots of corn crops
being worked into the ground once the insurance
cheque comes in so not a real effort to help out the
cattlemen.
Lightweight heifer calves of Angus type are being bid
to record highs on the northern plains - higher than
same weight steers - for export to Russia. Just
commercial heifers - not purebreds. One buyer
bought 3000 head at a recent sale. This will short the
calf market a little but I think longer term will keep a
lid on US cow expansion.

[charliep]

With Errol's comment about strengthening feed cattle prices and a potenial short term pull back in corn prices, just curious what Albertans will do this fall. Sell feeder calves off the cow? Be tempted to use some of the forage supplies to background into the winter? Realize everyones situation is different. Will the US drought force US calves off cows earlier and into feedlots? Yearlings on grass?

[T.N.T.]

ASRG you sure put a very negative impact on anyone that wants to raise or already raises cattle!! Who are dumb in enough to raise cattle?I'm sure all your neighbours kids if they have the thought of raising cattle,after they are done talking to you,they must leave thinking they must be dumb to want to raise cattle and they give up on the idea because they must think they must be stupid to even want to do it.I'm exactly opposite of you,about 7 years one of the neighbours boys wanted to get into cattle business but the bank wouldn't borrow him money for cattle because of bse.So i leased him 50 cows to get him started,and to build his herd with these cows.Why?The cattle market has always in the long run made our farm money,even when others are complaining about there is no money in cattle,and because he was always a good kid and not afraid of work.Me or the boys gave him a hand the first couple of calving seasons when he need more experience but he is always willing to learn more about the cattle business.Today that young man has a herd of 140 cows and expanding and is doing good,and he will always remember the old fart that gave him his original break to get him where he is today,and that was my reward because i gave him a pretty good deal on the lease of those cows.Where is it written that sooner or later us old farts have to retire?I'm going to being turning 82 this year and still going strong,and hopefully the only way i retire will be in a wooden box!! Why did you keep cattle your entire your life if people that raise them are so dumb?Why did you keep cattle if they are so much work,or there is no money to be made in cattle??This old fart doesn't think he is that dumb!! Those cows that are so much work,sure relax's this old fart!!And those cows that are so much work,and never give a person any money in return,sure helped us to put a land base together for us to pass on to the next generation to enjoy!!!This old fart doesn't see those cows as that much work,i guess thats just because i'm not a lazy kind of person!!

[GreenValley]

ASRG, don't even say that young are
dumb. We are keep going every generation
from thousands year ago to now. And we
need young to carry on next generation
and hope that baby boomer year not too
serious. During 1930's When west want
pioneer farmer to move west. They giving
away royality mineral right when
purchase land. Maybe in future like baby
boomer year I am sure Govt will put
royalty mineral right back program to
attractive younger into buying land
farming to meet end.

[cottonpicken]

Being the oldest commodity bull on site,it is my
humble opinion that cattle could possibly be one of
the top ten investments going forward in the mid to
long term,short term maybe not,and if you feel bad
about what you are doing go make subs at
subway,greet at walmart,or trip pipe on a rig,then
your eyes open and you remember why you love
farming.

[Happytrails]

Terrific discussion guys. I have long since given up outsmarting the market. I follow my gut and what my assets are best used for and live with the consequences. My only advice for the succeeding generations is to go with your heart because you will never succeed in anything that your heart isn't into. HT

[ASRG]

In my area there are no young farmers. Too close to the city...the only growth industry is sudivisions!
What I was trying to point out was it does not make sense to buy hay at $200-250/ton? Lots of these Americans in the drought areas are feeding cows already. Makes more sense to sell and buy back in when conditions are better?

As far as working until you die....its your life, live it how you want. Not many people are willing to do that.

[T.N.T.]

If you consider cattle and farming work,you chose the wrong occupation for your life.Do you know how many people would love to have our careers,if they only new what it was like?The Mrs and i have been here and there,since the boys are basically in charge of things now,but no better feeling when getting back home and taking a walk through the cows,or helping the boys do whatever needs doing.I couldn't think of a better way to spend our golden years,then doing what we love to do.

[errolanderson]

T.N.T . . . you are a very wise man.

Enjoy your perspective

[grassfarmer]

TNT, I love the work with cattle too and wouldn't do
anything else but the economics are still not that
great.
Lots of outsiders would love the lifestyle and work
but tying up a million dollars of their money for a
sub $20,000 income ....not so much. Real estate
appreciation makes for a retirement fund if you sell
out but it doesn't cash flow so good earlier in life.