Mad cow

[Cowcrazy100]

Apparently a case of mad cow disease has been found in Romania… Russia has already stopped imports of Romanian beef. Do you think mad cow will hit the Canadian beef industry again? Beef prices just started to get good.

[kato]

The farther we get from 2003 the better.

Who knows? Everything we all thought could never happen has happened in the last eleven years. We've gone from good markets to no markets. From a thriving cattle business to something that is a shadow of its former self. Good exports to no exports. And now cows are worth more than ever in history. I've given up on trying to figure it out.

Let's just enjoy what we've got, and resist going out and borrowing money on the expectation that it will never end.

[burnt]

Quite a thing to think that the 10 years of poor or negative margins after the 2003 BSE discovery would represent a quarter or more of an average working-person's income earning life.

[RayTurner]

Does anyone know the percentage of Canadian beef producers that have exited out of the market since BSE?

Demand for beef is high, but we don’t have enough to supply the market. The beef business also takes a lot of upfront cost and several years to see return on those investments.

Do you think we will see more young people get into the beef business? One plus side is that it isn’t a supply manages commodity… so that barrier is eliminated.

[kato]

Here's a cut and paste from Alberta Ag. It probably represents the trend for the whole country..

Alberta’s cow numbers peaked in 2005 at 2,187,000 cows found on 28,718 farms and ranches. In 2006, the Agricultural census reported that cow numbers in Alberta dropped to 2,032,018 on 25,479 farms and ranches. By 2011, the number of cows had dropped to 1,558,700 cows found on 18,944 farms and ranches. This is a 23.3 per cent decline in the number of cows in the province and a 25.6 per cent reduction in the number of producers who had cattle on their farms. Interestingly enough, over the 11 years in question, the average number of cows in a herd increased from 68 to 82 cows.

...... No matter how you look at it, we are a very diminished group. Now that it looks as though there may be some money coming back to the business, ironically that could be another roadblock to expanding production. It's a lot of investment up front, and finding someone to take that big of a leap may be hard. The high prices seem to have triggered a lot of exits from the business too.

[KoolRanch55]

Thanks kato.

I’ve got some backlash from consumers/people that I know who comment on the price of beef. And I tell them… you can’t lose thousands of dollars year after year and stay in business. People seem to forget that beef farmers have to make a living too. Interesting times ahead that’s for sure.