Cattle prices

[mcdon]

Straight to the moon...Sell your gold and buy cattle. Buying cattle/selling hogs at 6 cents was the trade of the year.

[kato]

And it's about time.

[mcdon]

No "real" traders on this site...none

[Braveheart]

I tried being a "real" trader once. I paid quite a bit of, well, tuition.

I like to hedge though.

[errolanderson]

U.S. cattle slaughter is running about 8% below year ago levels, but carcass weights are at record, up 32lbs from year ago levels.

U.S. packers bleeding out on the kill margins right now losing about $80 to $90 per head.

Believe cheap corn will expand the North American meat supply in 2015.

Fund buying currently the key price push on the cattle board.

[kato]

Bred cow sales in Manitoba are booked solid for the fall. Herds are still being liquidated, and bred cow buyers are going to have a tough time out bidding the packers this fall. We've seen more than a few $2000 cull cows, and a lot of producers have been waiting a long time for a good chance to cut and run. Rebuilding is going to take some time, if it ever even happens. I think higher pig numbers are most likely. Except in Manitoba, of course, where government policies are extremely anti-hog.

We are on new territory in the cattle business, and whatever happens, it's going to be different in a lot of ways. Interesting times....

[errolanderson]

(IMO) cattle bull is alive as long as the stock market bull is alive.

If stock markets never come back to earth, cattle feeders have it made in the shade.

But cattle are not a market island onto themselves in this global market.

[kato]

That's the sarey part. It always seems that just when things start to look good, something out of our control screws it up.

[cottonpicken]

Bitch please,i was spouting about gold and cattle eleven years ago...they are one in the same.

And if you think gold is staying down for any length of time you are delusional.

[Hopperbin]

Ok I just combined binned 80, 000 bushels of hard wheat. Am I in for hard times. Should I buy more bins next year? Oh by the way bins are cheaper at the coop and csp workers when they are done with the couple csp bins they build coop bins. Same ****ing shit. 60, 000 less dollars.

[mcdon]

Errol, you've been bearish cattle this whole move...time to rethink.

[errolanderson]

mcdon . . . these are dangerous cattle prices. This is risk management time for feeders. Yes, the cattle board has gone far higher than I ever expected or the industry for that matter. But that heightens both pricing opportunity and pricing risk.

If you wait for the break in this market, you may be a day late.

call it bearishness or call it risk management, whatever spin you want.

[mbdog]

declining volumes and declining-sideways open interest October thru jan is cautionary flag for me. Trending RSI has been violated IMO. Not saying upside futures and cash dont exist...but trailing stops on long paper, buying puts would be something worth considering. Shorting futures...no way. With US vs Canadian$ positions, cash can strengthen while futures need not this quarter. Don't think imminent crash in cash. Still think the broader macro objectiveis the market-charts are trying to establish a significant point in space. Argueably Oct easily trades 225-269 range. Will be non-livestock event to spoil party.
my 2 cents mcdon.
There are traders on AV, but most beat into submission.

[mcdon]

I like your analysis mbdog. Beef production in Canada is broken. High prices should lead to increased production, instead it is giving farmers a chance to liquidate (good for them), which is resulting in an even smaller national herd. (why wouldn't farmers sell heifers off pasture for $1500).TRying to forecast prices in a market that is not responding to market queues is futile. Yes there are some traders here, but little incentive for them to participate.

[bucket]

Look at the average age of the cattle guys.

Their sons are gone because there wasn't a living to be made.

Prices are high so some are getting out.

Herds are shrinking but getting younger.

You can't sell 10 old cows and put 10 heifers in thinking the overall herd is getting larger can you?

Costco can't source Canadian beef.

One calf a year.

Yeah this could turn any day.

The cattle industry has been descimated by events with no support.

Next thing the government will have a course on how to raise cattle. They should have had a program to keep the next generation on the ranch.