Cattle prices

[SCS]

Turned down 3000 for bred purebred hfrs. Went through drought, BSE, tighten the cinch and maybe retirement will work!

[mcdon]

Feeders up another 21/2 cents this A.M., one more bearish analysis and we'll be at $3.00. Good on anyone that has stuck with their cattle through the tough times.

[bucket]

Be interesting to know what the equity burn was to stay in cattle for these tough years?

[Braveheart]

Bucket, it depended whose numbers were used. Current inventory values given by us or used by lenders was lower. AgStability seemed to have them much higher.

[bucket]

Braveheart

5 years in a declining market would of reduced their margins where the government could say they are helping but it's not designed to.

But keep trying to praise the conservatives for purposely losing a generation of replacement ranchers.

By equity burn it means what did they sacrifice to still be here.

Using the tractor to 15000 hours to where it's worthless. Driving a 20 year old half ton. Sons gone to other industries and not coming back. Mortgaging pastures.

The real equity burn is losing the sons to other industries.

[errolanderson]

15444 - feeder / live cattle put options.

no government involvement

simple tool with powerful price protection.

[mcdon]

Meat horses worth 30-40 cents/lb, feeders $2.50 {?}, how long is it going to be until horse meat is found in hamburger ? Happened in France when the spread was much smaller. Speaking of spreads, the spread between live cattle and feeders is at an all time high(I think), any ideas on where it should be, or is feeder cattle contract broken ?

[errolanderson]

mcdon . . . very cheap and abundant corn sets the stage for a hike in North American meat production in 2015.

don't think we have to worry about horse meat in hamburger.

[bucket]

You do realize the meat production for 2015 is from the 2014 calf crop.

The bred heifers in the herd now are the 2016 meat production.

The heifers are barely keeping pace with the cows going to slaughter.

There is not a growing herd in Canada. This upswing is the retirement call.

Maybe you should get into the business errol. You are still young enough to do it right? Or do you want to enjoy a few more golf games?

Corn could be a buck a bushel but unless cattle are being imported on boats to be fed. Meat production is stable or decreasing.

Maybe heavier weights but seems unlikely considering they are buying everything for slaughter.

[charliep]

For what it is worth, western Canada has lost 3 million tonnes plus/minus feed grain consumption because of lower livestock numbers. We are more dependent on export markets for crops.

From a agriculture standpoint, the cow calf sector is the one who is beneting. I suspect that backgrounding operations and feeders are paying the high prices for animals with their margins remaining tight. Bidding on less animals.

I know this thread is about futures trading opportunities but there are lots of dynamics in the cash/physical market. I suspect a lot of Canadian calves will move south to cheap US corn inspite of MCOOL. Empty lots/excess feed means for a very interesting markets that will supercede politics.

[bucket]

Get slaughtered in the states and come back to Canada thru Costco.

Why have slaughter houses or feedlots in saskatchewan. Create business by moving everything six ways before it hits the end users.

Efficient is a strange word.

[bucket]

Charliep

The cow calf guy is reducing his herd. That's what cattle guys do. Catch up on prices like this.

If there is another generation to take over it continues. But this last go in the cattle cycle eliminated the next generation.

[charliep]

bucket

I think over time you have indicated you have some cows. Just curious what you have done with the calves. Already gone/gone shortly? Considering doing some backgrounding over the winter? Feeding out? You comment about the macro trends but I am always interested in individual managers business decisions and why.

[charliep]

I guess I try to stay focused on the demand/consumption side. My interest will be how managers respond and the cultural change that may may need to occur. The most limiting asset western Canada has is land and the best/most profitable use of it. You can harvest crops with four tires or four legs.

[bucket]

My cows are a bad hobby. Keeping them because I think my son wants to try it.

Calves are still on cows and will be until harvest is done.

Minimum work. The only truck is when calves go to auction. Usually February.

But at one time in the late 90 we were running 170 cows. Not now. And if I see an opportunity for my kid I will start it up again.

To me this isn't the time to be doing anything but making the herd younger not larger.