Cattle: End of the Bull Run

[errolanderson]

Feeder cattle have been in crash 'n burn mode for several days now.

Western Cdn feeder bids are still holding up, but this setback may be too hard to endure heading into the 1st quarter.

Texas/Kansas fat cattle have lost about $10/cwt over the past two weeks. U.S. packers have gained leverage on the beef market. Alberta fats still holding up well as basis levels have improved recently.

Cdn dollar loses remain a key support tempering Cdn cattle from the U.S. fallout.

[tweety]

Everyone stop eating steak all of a sudden?

Markets are such a scam.

[bucket]

Herds moving but not growing. 1 calf a year. Heifers this spring will be a premium to steers?

Sounds bearish to me. Sheesh!

[bucket]

Or do you mean bring the bulls in from pasture?

Most have been in for a couple months now.

[mcdon]

Cattle at a 75 to 80 cent premium to hogs...don't think that is sustainable...despite smaller herd, beef still has to compete with pork...I don't want to be long anything in this environment (for the time being).

[bucket]

Auctions are just doing tax bred cow sales now.

Nothing to fire up about until about mid January.

[kato]

An 86 cent dollar carries a lot of weight in the cattle market, especially in Manitoba, where so much business is done south.

A ten cent drop off of two dollars isn't nearly as painful as a ten cent drop off of 80 cents either. Of course there has to be some adjusting done in a market as wild as this one has been. We are a long way from a no profit situation.

[mbdog]

Tinfoil hat and all...market is behaving as it should...totally healthy. Long term positive livestock story still intact...Would be nervous if I was the cow/calf guy holding out for more near term. All not lost for now (maybe)... definite shot across bow.

[newguy]

may be some small adjustment but beef is in for a good long run. Heard a couple months ago cattle hit all time high for a straight 6 months...But resteraunt sales hit all time high for 18 straight months in a row.. Cow numbers can not change over night. Less people want to raise cattle. The ones that do are in for a good ride.

[Happytrails]

Cattle Feeder: Cowboy, the feeder futures have dropped a lot lately. Maybe you should sell some before they go lower.
Cowboy: Maybe I should. If I sell cattle and buy a futures contract can I get cattle delivered later on the contract month for that price?
Cattle Feeder: Oh no, there is no longer live delivery for cattle futures.
Cowboy: So what maintains market discipline in the cattle futures?
Cattle Feeder: There isn't any of that kind of discipline.
Cowboy: EXACTLY. I think I'll keep my cattle for a while.

JMHO This manufactured scare is so obvious. The big hurts will be futures players. I think the guys with live cattle will be fine. HT

[mbdog]

Good luck to you Happy. And Merry Christmas.

[BTO_farmalll]

error,

Who Cares About The Futures!!!!! Cash, All Cash Baby!!!!!!!!! Markets Dont Know Shit!!!!!!!!!!!

[errolanderson]

BTO . . . if it wasn't for the futures market, the cash cattle price wouldn't have gotten this high. Spec-buying contributed to the packer paying up to amazing levels in the end.

Normally, the cash cattle market takes the lead over the Chicago futures. But this last burst in cash cattle bids was spurred by the futures rally. But it also contributed to worsening negative packer kill margins.

Realize producers may cheer buyer losses, but this situation also offers a clear warning that market economics will eventually change.

The cattle board has been extremely overbought for some time, but continued its rally far higher than many expected. This has been the feeder's reward.

But that reward may be at risk over the next few months without prudent price risk management. The peak of the North American cash cattle market is now likely in (IMO) given shrinking consumer wealth, cheaper alternatives and rapidly changing global economics.

[BTO_farmalll]

Oh Good Lord,

Every Time a Packer Opens His Mouth, They Are Losing Money!!!!!! What Else is New!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mcdon]

Errol, you are assuming that the cattle market is trading rationally, that higher prices will attract investment which will increase production and ultimately reduce price. I don't think this has happened, in fact the higher prices has been an incentive for older producers to exit the market, thereby compounding the tight supplies even further. From an economist's perspective the market is not acting rationally. This is where analysts are lost.From a trader's perspective, just follow the trend.