I guess I used peddling in the wrong sense. All have come to me.
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A bunch of interesting prospective as usual. Good on you for surviving Jeff and Grassfarmer.
Could also find a happy medium here in Canada where YES we have winter.
Cattle raised on ranched until they are close to finishing weight would not leave quite the "footprint" as a conventional feedlot situation and leaving out the hormonal implants that keep them there while they become behemoth protein widgets might help as well.
Used to be a game for the middle player and has now become a JBS game in this "natural beef" game for lack of a better description.
When Canada finally wakes up and sees the potential beyond the American appetite for ground beef while they steal our prime cuts --- with or without implants, the middle players will once again have a niche "world" market to fill.
If we don't find new players,JBS will be in fine position to play the "natural" card and it will not take Cargill long to make the adjustment either.
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Tell me what is the extra gain from a complete implant program. So if you implant calves with ralgro in spring, revlor in autumn, background and sell to feedlot where they do their implants and feed additives. So for me as a producer to use two implants and say get an extra 60 lbs gain that's like an extra $150 a head at $2.50 a lb. maybe the extra gain is more. So you sell a 820 lb implanted calf at $2.50 is $2050. You sell a $760 lb non implanted calf at $2.60 for $1976. Roughly $70 per calf extra. When the day comes that JBS or cargill starts paying hefty enough premiums for hormone free I'm in. But my personal opinion my calves gain more efficiently on the same amount of feed with implants. I don't know much about the finishing end of things but from my days of 4H I remember those who used implants seemed to have better luck getting calves to finish than those who didn't.
Now if implants are banned and we are all put in the same boat I fear it will change the whole feeding industry. Calves will need to be fed longer to finish, more cattle and feed will be needed to produce the same amount of beef. In essence the cost per lb will increase. It's all fine if we can realize all these premium offshore markets but at the end of the day these offshore markets can be saturated by South American and Australian product which is already hormone free and cheap. The implants are what gives us a productive edge against these guys. That being said there is demand for hormone free and if the packers and consumers are willing to pay some will follow that route. For the rest there is demand for lower cost product. I don't think the folks on pink slips right now are willing to pay a whole lot extra for hamburger or roast right now.
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Wilton Ranch, I don't think the price advantage that can be derived from using hormones gives a competitive edge against Australian or S American beef - our climate disadvantage overrides that by far.
Reality is as you said though - the day the packers want it they will pay for it. They decide which markets to go after we only sell live cattle and play no part in that decision unless we individually decide to pursue customers seeking out grass-fed, organic or hormone free.
Overseas export markets accessed by being hormone free would only earn us commodity prices in those markets and it doesn't work at current prices.
There is a sizeable and growing market for grass-fed and hormone free in North America which could be pursued by bigger industry players but producer groups would have to get over their "but that's implying our commodity beef has something wrong with it" attitudes.
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