Dollars...

[smcgrath76]

We hit $0.9999US this morning and looks poised to go higher. Feed grains are also approaching some fairly high values. It will be interesting to see how this impacts the fall run. Last year when we thought prices were too low, lots of guys held off marketing. I think this year might trump last year by a mile.
I have also run across a lot of exiters in the last couple of months. It will be interesting to see if this is the straw that breaks the camel's back for a lot of guys.
Not sure our input costs will decline though.

[kato]

We sold yearling steers two weeks ago for five cents a pound more than the fresh calves we took to the auction this week. Yearlings weighed 731 @ 1.12 and the calves were 665 @ 1.07. These were not super yearlings, but they were super calves.

I'd say it's down.

It doesn't help that in our area at least the USDA has restricted the number of trucks they will handle at the border, because they got overwhelmed at the beginning of the month. It adds another bottleneck to the problem.

Things could get tight this winter.

[coppertop]

Prices at the local auction were off significantly yesterday. The dollar and grain prices, combined with a lack of help to process calves in feedlots are all factors according to one of the buyers I spoke to.

[kato]

Might be a good year to wean, vaccinate and get the calves going before selling them?

[rkaiser]

There will be a break in this pathetic situation soon. Psychology is playing a role right now, and those who can use it are definitely using it. If you can possibly hold on for a bit ---- hold on. American futures were up sharply late today.

[BFW]

Certainly this is a difficult situation but you should probably refrain from offering market advice rkaiser. You can sell feed barley in the Peace River area today for $4.60/bu. This likely means that we have by far the most expensive feed grain in North America(if not the world) available to us for feeding our cattle. Couple that with the recent move to par in the Canada/US exchange rate and I can assure you that we do not have a recipe for higher calf prices here in Alberta any time soon. The US futures market moving a little higher has little or nothing right now to do with the calf prices we are seeing.

[rkaiser]

And who should be giving advice BWF - a margin player who has no problem with 90 cent calves? Maybe your advice would be to sell sell sell. By the way - who is this royal "we" you talk of when your say "feeding -our- cattle."

I wouldn't call my post advice Jeff just an opinion - just like yours.

American futures are about all we have for speculation. After all - the boxes that leave "our" LOL Canadian plants are traded directly into that American marketplace - which is seeing a pretty good demand for beef even though a recession looms..

[grassfarmer]

High priced barley? what high priced barley?? you should take this thread over to the commodity forum where all the CWB bashers are whining how hard up they are, robbed of potential high prices by a cruel and biased judge.

Seems to me the calves last winter gained at least 10 cents a pound between December and March and there wasn't any new barley harvested between times. There is more than high grain prices at play here - it's the old risk/cost externalisation policy at play again.

[BFW]

I understand clearly that 90 cent calves are no good for any of us in the long run and when I say "our cattle" I mean all of the cattle that will be fed here on the prairies this year regardless of who owns them. We are in the midst of a major shift in the cattle industry (here in Alberta in particular) and if you can't see the signals or choose to ignore them you do so at your peril.

[rkaiser]

And what is that shift that we are missing BFW? You seem to suggest in your first post that the prices paid for calves are simply a reality and we should not look for any hope for better in the near future. I would tend to say that an attitude like that could chase more and more primary cow calf producers out of an industry where reality says that the prices they are receiving for calves this past week do not pay the expenses. Not a slim margin acceptable with large number BFW - but simply a waste of time and energy for a financial loss.

What is this shift that you are suggesting? A shift to showing the packer - the wholesaler - the retailer and the consumer that the primary producer will be lost if the cost of barley as well as every other cost in the industry must be born by that one sector?

Not hiding from reality BFW - just pointing it out to those who think that the cow calf man can survive on a 90 cent calf.

The shift that I see is more of a shift to backgrounding on the farm and not filling all of those feedlots with calves that I agree are captive to Western Canada with the dollar, fuel and those fancy new BSEconomic rules. Maybe riding this thing through and hoping that them there Americans see fit to buy up a bunch of grass fed yearlings that spend the summer grazing ground that their dead mommas used to live on. And if the Americans don't come - Cargill and Tyson will use whatever feedlots are left for some marginal custom work.

Don't worry too much about big calf numbers staying in western Canada BFW - by this time next year you might be bull dozing some of that pen space along with the feedlot alley boys. That ground would likely grow a couple of hellish $7.00/ bushel wheat crops mind you.

[BFW]

I think you've hit the nail on the head!

[rkaiser]

So what can we collectively do about it Jeff?

If you have not totally given up on the potential to change course at ABP/CCA, what would be on your wish list. My conversations about the destruction of ABP are more based on hopelessness for the status quo to change than anything else. However, I am a very hopeful individual and thus my decision to put my name in the hat, and search for others who see major change as essential.

What is it that the new founded National Cattle Feeders Association wants? Maybe joining forces with the Alberta Cattle Commission might be the way. I am afraid that my vote will not include a seat at the table for our competition for any hope of profit in the current "Canadian" LOL packing industry.

[grassfarmer]

So if cost of grain is the main problem affecting feedlots how much are you prepared to pay producers to grow cattle out on grass BFW? Surely it should be quite a bit higher than the rates per pound paid in previous years when grain was cheap?
How long do you need a grass reared steer in your feedlot to add the required "barley finish requested by consumers?" AKA removing the health benefits and loading up the saturated fats lol!

I see huge potential for moving cattle out of feedlot alley and back onto the pastures owned by aged producers who no longer want to feed and calve out cows over winter. Despite talk of high grain prices there is an awful lot of this province that can't grow grain worth a damn, blame it on early frosts, late springs, heat blasts, cool temperatures or whatever. It's obvious to me that this land would grow grass a lot better than it will ever grow grain. Given that any increase in grain prices will be offset by farmer's input price increases this land will be no more economic to farm than it has been in the past. Turn it green and lets grow some better beef - healthier for the consumer, the land, the environment and possibly even the producer.

[blackjack]

...grassfarmer would that not require a new system of grading...i don't think the packers would be in any hurry to change the system they have set up...and if they were to change are they not still in the power of position knowing your animal has to be slaughtered...

[BFW]

I don't think there is much we can do about the current market situation except manage our own affairs. The US farm bill and energy policies coupled with demand for grain (energy) from around the world will have dramatic impacts on livestock production everywhere not just here in Canada. In short I think the outcome here is a downsizing in the cattle industry to pre 1990's levels.

As for your comments on the ABP, (and I may regret this) I think that the only way to drive serious change there is to have its source of funding removed. A refundable checkoff would instantly remove the sense of entitlement that permeates the ABP and make it more sensitive to the challenges that our industry faces and more able to provide a little leadership to help it get there.