Dollars...

[cswilson]

It will all come out in the wash. We'll finish our cattle again I imagine-the feedlots will compensate for the high dollar and high grain with the prices they pay for cattle. It's amazing how some of the best years to buy and sell cattle end with a '6 or 7'. The most money I ever made on grass cattle was spring of '96 when the price cratered. The old adage 'When your crying you should be buying' was true then and I have a feeling is true this fall too. Most guys will do the lemming rush to the stockyards though I imagine.

[grassfarmer]

True enough most calves will get sold at auction regardless of price, but if you are having your cattle custom fed won't you be paying for the high priced grain too? I imagine the custom lots will be protecting their margins on this enterprise in a similar fashion to bidding down calf prices.

[cswilson]

Most times when feedlots start to buy their breakevens they tend to crack back orices a little more than they probably have too-when they get the rose coloured glasses on they tend to spend more than they should too. I'll take my chances on feed before I'll do the dump and cry.

[DiamondSCattleCo]

One of the biggest problems we have are all these futures traders and industry forecasters being complete damned idiots. I've been watching grains going up and up and my calf prices going down and down and then I hear on the radio yesterday:

"US futures prices took a hard hit today when industry analysts realized that the US harvest is going to be far in excess of original expectations and that demand for ethanol was going to be lower than expected due to lack of plant construction in the US."

I say we ban futures trading from the commodity market, as these idiots don't really have a clue whats happening from day to day, yet we producers have to pay for their mistakes.

[perfecho]

Good luck banning future trading....I have always been amazed that you could make more trading farm products, than actually growing them....especially if you invested the same amount of capital!So... who is smarter? Traders or growers.

[kato]

I wonder if the new cash advances will keep some calves off the market this fall?

[Cowzilla]

In this area after 2 weeks of a down market cattle numbers at sales start to drop off as cattlemen hold off till numbers improve. As more buyers see this as a oppertunnity and start filling pens the price starts creeping up. If you got pen space and a patient banker some money can be made. P.S. Did I mention the patient banker part ?

[smcgrath76]

something along the lines of what CS said. Anything working against you can be made to work for you as well. Feed could be hedged on the futures market as well as cattle losses. I think there may be opportunity for someone smarter than I to assist producers in developing and implementing hedging strategies, however first it is important to know breakevens and what you want as a return.

[kato]

Could also be that there will be some cheaper corn coming from the south thanks to the dollar....

We're on both sides of this fence, having feeders and cows, but for every good sign on the feeders, the cow herd takes a kick.

There are upsides to a high grain market in the feeder department. Less competition at the auction from guys trying to make cheap barley worth more. (good for feeders. bad for cow calf) Non existant overfat steers. (good for everybody) Those overdiscounted purchase prices. (good for feeders, bad for cow calf) Everyone is forced to sharpen the pencils and keep on top of the management. (good for everyone)

Now, if I could figure out a way to make them both work at the same time I'd get a patent and go sit under a palm tree with the proceeds.

[grassfarmer]

Kato, I think there is a way that both cow/calf guys and cattle feeder could prosper - that would be by tackling corporate concentration at the processing and retail level. There is plenty money in the beef production chain if it were more equitably distributed. Instead feedlot owners are pitted against ranchers each trying to take enough advantage of the other to survive on the scraps left over after the packers and retailers have taken their chunks.
Instead of fighting for this change the mighty brains of CCA/ABP spend producers check off dollars trying to ruin the profitability of the only really successful farms in Canada - those with supply management. Their mistaken logic being that by destroying these other industries we will get more global access for "our" beef resulting in enhanced profitability. This is wrong on two counts - 1. I know of no country that would definitely import extra Canadian beef if we do away with supply management. And 2. if we did find such a country how would this benefit cattle producers given the captive marketplace created by corporate concentration?

I think I have the answer but have no desire to go sit under a palm tree - I would be happy to ranch with a secure future brought about by fair returns for my work.