Hearing 1700 to 1800$ for bred cows at Provost

[DogPatch]

kind of sucks for those that sold good cows between 2003, and 2009 for less than $500

[tweaker101]

But for those exiting the industry it sure is good,

[grassfarmer]

DogPatch like all good myths that one gets bigger
with each telling. How many good cows were sold for
less than $500 between 2003-2009? If we are still
talking bred cows I'd suggest very few. Quite a lot of
cull cows for sure but if they were bred cows they
weren't likely the quality of the ones making $1700 in
Allfarmers post.
I see I made a typo in my earlier post - I meant to say
$600 cows in 2009 not $900 cows. That was the
opportunity in this cattle cycle.

[ASRG]

2009 was definitely the time to buy cows....if you had the feed? If I remember correctly both hay and straw were pretty brutal? That was a really dry year.
Correct me if I'm wrong but I remember hay at $160 bale and straw at $60?
I think I bought barley that year at $3.60/bu (actually my own barley) and baled up my own straw (which I priced at 1 cent a pound....see I can cook the numbers as well as anybody!) and got my cows fed through the winter relatively cheap!
I remember one guy saying it cost him $900 to get his cows through (had to start feeding in September)!

[grassfarmer]

Years like 2009 can be stressful at the time but
looking back they are the times you really get paid for
your planning and management skills. Some guys
maybe did buy hay at $160/bale, plenty guys were
out of grass in September but by and large these are
guys that don't plan. Guys that graze pastures into
the dirt every year and start feeding in October will be
out of grass in September in a drought year - that's
not hard to forsee is it? A lot of the same guys think
hay is the only thing you can feed a cow hence they
chase the price beyond economic values.
We wintered cows on hailed out crop silage that cost
us $45 a ton and straw. But we only fed for 100 days
because we planned for the worst not the best case
scenario and if you do that you are nearly always
pleasantly surprised. We sold some young pairs in the
June before prices collapsed because we could see
what was likely coming in terms of grass growth. Part
of the deal was we got the calves back at weaning
time. We also early weaned and sold a draft of
teenage cull cows for $480 and replaced them with
some good young bred cows later in the fall for $600
once we were sure we had the feed and pasture lined
up.
In the last couple of years some of the guys that sold
cows at $600 are trying to buy back in at $1600. I
don't see how they will ever beat the cattle cycle
playing it in reverse.

[ASRG]

I agree 100% with your analysis.
A good portion of the guys who sold out in 2009 are never coming back in.