How come such a Big cow kill?

[ASRG]

The January 18th market report on the Alberta Ag website has the cow kill for the week at 11,099 (week before was close to 9,000).
Last year just over 7,000 and 2011 at 5400.
Cow prices are actually lower than in Jan 2012.
Why the big kill? What am I missing here?

[kato]

Is Brooks playing catch up?

Is it the cost of feed?

Or availability?

Or nobody wanting to be in the cattle business any more?

I'd like to know as well.

[ALLFARMER]

Thanks for the data ASRG

Do you know anyone starting out producing beef?
I know I don't. Wonder what things are going to
look like 10 years down the road?

[grassfarmer]

Maybe some guys held cows back in Oct/Nov due to
the XL deal figuring they would be better money in
January... plenty of feed available.....people with tax
problems holding them over?
I usually ship some that are fat when we wean and
then hold onto the rest into the new year - we held
them all over this year - maybe others did the same?

[smcgrath76]

I think GF has a pretty close read. We
were ready to take a bunch in when the XL
news broke, so we just waited. Once we
got near the end of the year, it was
better to wait a couple of weeks for tax
reasons.
Ukrainian Christmas and New Year's is over
so guys in this area are starting to get
work organized again.

[Horse]

Over 500 cows for sale at westlock today dam near every sale advertises someones complete dispersal.
If you realy analize your return from, cows its no wonder every one wants out, except those welfare cowboys on crown land they cant afford to quit and loose the welfare cheque. add on the good grain prices and half decent rents being paid and who wants a cow?
Every time there is a cow sale the packers get a fair bunch so I think the high numbers are relative to the num of cows offred for sale.
I wonder if this gov being short of cash will raise grazing rates from thier 1920s level?

[ASRG]

There is a rumor going around that JBS is going to close down for awhile to retro fit the plant.

[ASRG]

Allfarmer: I don't know of anyone who is starting up a cow herd. I still do see (like Horse) a lot of the old die hards finally biting the bullet and shipping the cows!
I think for a lot of these guys selling out....they just ran out of time....no one to take over and the work load is getting to be too much.

[ALLFARMER]

One younger guy near my place has started and
quit twice now. It's tough to see, he couldn't afford
to buy and clear land plus make cow payments
and put food on the table. He only owns one
quarter and rented summer pasture. He had 100
head and statistics say you need 250 head to
make a living with cattle. I think grain farming is
easier for guys to start into. Find a guy who'll seed
on time, someone to spray on time. Get a crop
advance as soon as u have crop insurance.

[ASRG]

Allfarmer: Even grain farming(with todays high prices) only works if you have really cheap land?
The fact is anyone farming, had better love the lifestyle, because the returns just aren't that good?
We all work the numbers to justify what we do....but in reality the return per cow, in a traditional set up isn't that good.
Again (beating a dead horse):
Costs:
200 days feed@ $1.40/day $280
method of feeding $ 25
salt & min $ 20
165 days pasture @ $1/day $165
breeding $ 35
cow depreciation $ 40
int. on cow @ 4% $ 60
fence/corral/electricity $ 20
labour $ 50
vet/ID $ 25
selling costs/trucking $ 25
death loss @1% $ 14
TOTAL $734

INCOME
600 lb calf st/hfr @ $1.35/lb $810
less 5% (dead calf/open/etc) $ 40
TOTAL $770

Net Income $ 46

250 cows $11,500

[ASRG]

Further more in case you think you make a lot of money on your pasture or hay:

Pasture/acre:
bush pasture $30/acre rent
improved pasture (conventional) $50
hay @3 tons/$60 ton $180
less costs (cutting, raking, baling, hauling,seeding/fert) ??? $120
Net hay $60?

If you can buy land for $1,000/acre at 3.5%, all of the above would work....or come close to it? At $2000/acre, none of the above would work.
When you get up to $3,000 or %$4,000/acre......I don't think anything will work....unless you're selling stuff in a baggie!

[Horse]

Allfarmer and Grass farmer I dont want to be too pushy but you both seem to be upbeat on this cow buisness I sure would like to see a set of numbers like asrg gust posted,, mabey we all are missing something here, I realize land is cheaper where you are but frieght is pretty costly isnt it.

[grassfarmer]

Horse, I don't see the commodity outlook being all
that exciting - running cows, making hay, feeding
200 days and dumping weaned calves in the fall run
doesn't attract me. I don't see that economies of scale
by going to 300 or beyond really help - if the margin
isn't there with a smaller number it won't be there
with a bigger number. To run 3 or 400 you need that
much more land so I don't see how you get ahead.

I'm upbeat on the cattle business the way we do it
though. Minimizing costs at every stage, adding value
at every stage, controlling the genetics from the
conception of the seed-stock right through to the
finished beef. Then direct marketing an in-demand
product to customers 2 hours from my farm.
I would estimate the current total supply of grass-fed
beef going into cities like Calgary is supplying
somewhere between 1-2% of the population so the
sky is the limit as far as potential growth goes. I don't
think there is a better opportunity in livestock
agriculture today than what we are doing but each to
their own.

[ASRG]

Horse: Those aren't my numbers....just putting out numbers that a lot of people are actually using.
I'm not nearly as efficient as grassfarmer, but better than the numbers I put up for an example.

[ASRG]

Actually....my numbers might be worse as I am on very expensive land!