Interesting Market

[smcgrath76]

This is a good link today
http://www.dailylivestockreport.com/
They talk about the effect that the US sequestration process may have on processing. Basically the US is running with no
cash and has to slow/halt services. They suggest that delays in inspection may back up production 30 or 40 pounds per
head and put a real drag on the market.
Additionally, my market reports so far this week have shown feeder cattle continuing to back off, despite predictions for
a bump as we get closer to grass. There is potential to lock in a profit using FPIP in Alberta if there is grass
available. I kind of am wondering if there is not much grass that isn't planned for a disk.

[ALLFARMER]

US cattle futures have been a shit show since
January.

If I can buy some more bred cows for 1350 or less
next week well expand numbers here. Interest
rates are so cheap and calf prices are ok so
...more is better!

[grassfarmer]

More is better ....Unless:

You are in an area that was severely droughted last
year, likely damaged productivity of pastures as well
as made winter feed scarce and expensive.
Presumably no feed carryover.

We get a more widespread drought in Western
Canada. With the western US still being dry the
likelihood of it spreading north into Canada is ever
present.

Continuing global high prices for grain and oilseeds
exasperated by shortage in Canada if we had drought
conditions would leave limited and expensive grain
supplies to finish CDN cattle that we would maybe
have difficulty marketing because of the following
point.

The knock on effect of the US sequester coupled with
stepped up COOL regulation acts to limit US demand
for CDN cattle.

Not necessarily thinking all this will happen but we
need to be cognizant of the risks.

[errolanderson]

Cattle on feed on Friday . . . Due to
recent losses, Feb placements may be down
about 13% year over year.

Cattle board remains under pressure likely
due to margin call forced liquidation.
Feeder cattle are so oversold that if USDA
gives the market any support on Friday, it
should trigger a fairly significant
rebound . . . next week?

[ALLFARMER]

Lots of negativism out there for sure but
fundamentally people still have to eat and more of
them every day. McDonalds and the like are not
shutting down anytime soon.

True I don't have much feed on hand but were
only 60 days or less to grass. I plan to bale a 400
or 500 straw bales next year so in theory I
wouldn't need any hay. Alfalfa pellets and straw
costing me $1/day on a 200 day winter $200 is a
cheap enough cost to winter a cow IMO.

Listening to the noon farm show is often like
listening to the evening news. It's a constant
stream of shit that went wrong or is going wrong.
I just turn it off and don't bother listening.

Grassfarmer if I need to be grazing longer what
would you recommend u seed my next quarter
down too? Meadow brome, Timothy, 10% Alfalfa
want to be able to use it for hay or grazing. Likely
it could be a late season grazing field.

[rkaiser]

Only negative due to our dependence on good old Uncle Sam, whos sufferin these days. The shift is coming - one way or another - to Asian Markets and we need packers to either get on board or get out of the way while we develop those markets ourselves.

[ag-boy]

yes Randy where is your plant ???
cattle doing o-k !we have a change to bye cows at 11 to 1200
did not have to feed them for prise paid last fall at 1800
been in it for a long time
how are you trying to sell your beef
randy ? like 12 to 15000 head !
few organic farms or small farm operators can sell out of the backdoor
had some organic raised beef ! was not like our Alberta grain fed beef !!!

[grassfarmer]

Allfarmer,

People still ate from 2003-2009 but it didn't result in
prices that could sustain most cattle ranchers.

Your winter ration seems to have got cheaper - last
time it was discussed wasn't it about $1.60? and that
was before yardage. More likely a ration of about $2 a
day.

I can't suggest a type of seed that you need - you see
there is no magic bullet - no plant, no machine, no
gadget that ensures success. You have to design a
system from the ground up where the pieces all fit
together and there is no end to the complexities and
intricacies of the relationships between the different
components making up a successful system. You
need to think holistically not from a reductionist
standpoint where you consider everything in
isolation. I think a holistic management course would
do you some good - it would cost you the price of a
good cow but I think it would be money well spent.

[ALLFARMER]

1.60 was with 60$ bales of hay

[tweaker101]

GF, I agree with what you are saying. Last year
my wife and I took the 6 day hoalistic course, we
both found it very informative and eye opening so
I would recommend the course to everyone...you
go away and definitely have a different
perspective on how your farm runs.....IMO

[ALLFARMER]

Last week my neighbor took the John Deere
factory tour. Found it very informative and eye
opening so I would recommend the tour to
everyone...you got away with definitely a different
perspective on how your farm tractor runs.....IMO

Did you know they take the last tractor model off
the line ever built and keep err there?

Do you know the 3 things you can't do??
1) take a picture of an American citizen without
there permission
2) ask about employee wages
3) ask for daily production totals

All the people running the tours & gift shops are
former now retired factory employees?

[nicolaas]

straw is not really that cheap, if the farmer takes into account the cost of baling and fertilizer lost. If feeding on farm, fertility just gets moved to next field. If you sell it, its gone. 2 years ago I did the math, and I came to 36/bale cost for a 1200 lb bale all in. I charged my cows accordingly. AB ag has good info on estimates.

[ASRG]

nicolas: so in reality if you can buy in that straw at $20/bale you are actually making money? How much fertilizer value does a 1200 lb. straw bale have?

[ALLFARMER]

I would figure close to 20$/bale fertilizer value. I
can likely have all the bales I want this fall for that.
Yes that's in the swath. Lots of guys have too
much straw in some areas and are happy to get
rid of it. Makes it much easier for seeding next
year. When ever my grain farmer neighbor's
daughter needs hay or straw for her horses they
know where to call. Always be on good terms
with your neighbors if at all possible.

[nicolaas]

You bet, the nutrient value is suprisingly high, and the cost of running the baler, tractor, wages, moving bales from field, add up fast.It was a couple years ago I did the numbers, but the info (#'s of N, P, K, s, /lb of straw) is discussed in the AB research papers. In huge straw areas, for sure the economics are better. 20 bucks a bale, good deal!!! Definately not an exact science. Could do tests of the straw for the breakdown if someone was that interested. Conversley, there are also articles stating that most nutrients are stored in the bottom 1/3 of the plant and roots, - then not much would be lost. I still feed straw, I cannot justify having farmland in hay. Sometimes it is just kind of interesting / depressing running the numbers.