Are cow numbers really increasing ?

[ProFarmer]

Reading a article in the line up at the elevator had me depressed. Some analyst out of the states was talking about a major down turn in the cattle market coming because of all of the heifers being kept back and the calf body size getting bigger. I my little bubble area south western Manitoba. Cow numbers are way down 50% or more gone . I was just wondering how other areas are doing.

[AllisWD45]

Here in East Central Sask I don't think numbers are increasing but very definately like grain farming there are fewer and fewer cattlemen with more and more cows. 300 plus cows seems to be a minimum more if you are only in cattle no grain

[perfecho]

There was a topic under Commodity Marketing on this topic...

https://www.agriville.com/cgi-bin/forums/viewThread.cgi?1443667051

I kept back and bred the majority of my heifers from last year...but we are not big numbers anymore...but due to feed situation, may be looking for new homes...

[kato]

Odd..usually there is a price increase at the beginning of heifer retention due to those heifers being off the market. It takes a couple of years before their calves affect the market. I think the Americans may be a bit ahead of us on the expansion phase. I would think that the dollar will help us here. And I'm not sure about other people, but around here there is no surplus of feed this year either, which may put a stopper on expansion.

IMHO the market is having a correction right now, and we will have to wait and see what it settles at. The prices of the summer were on their way to discouraging a lot of buyers, so a well timed adjustment could be not such a bad thing when all is said and done.

Prices are still in the profitable range, so as long as they don't hit the basement it will still be manageable. Volatility is the new normal.

[smcgrath76]

The July inventory numbers in Canada indicate that we are still in contraction phase, although there have been some premiums emerging for heifer calves this fall already. It will be interesting as the US is in full tilt expansion mode and this week reports are that a good chunk of Texas is headed back into a drought situation. That might stretch the cycle out a bit.
I think we are on the way to losing more infrastructure here, unless we see an expansion start. The weather/drought this year may have slowed things up a bit. I think the numbers will start to turn next year. We AIed 140 commercial cows with sexed female semen this summer and would have done over 200 if the pasture had worked out according to the original plan. Hopefully someone wants heifers, or I am going to wind up with a lot of cows (LOL).
We have forgotten the cattle cycle as Canadians based on the last decade or so of BSE markets, but it has been alive and well in the US and with a more integrated market again, I think the biggest factor is what the Americans do, not how many cows we have in Canada. The Canadian Dollar is a pro in that it makes the calves born here worth more (manner of speaking), however it also means that to compete buying replacements you have to match US dollars searching for feeders. When you look at the average age of producers it is relatively easy to understand why folks are quitting and renting their land base to the grain guys.

[WiltonRanch]

Lot of old guys and gals were going to sell but figured they'd hang on for a few good turns. A downer market may encourage them to get out before they give their cows away. I sure don't see much herd expansion and I'm in a mixed area. Some expanded before prices took off. Cow business is about making the trend your friend. If prices are crap you keep more heifers. If prices are great take a profit. I sat in vermillion auction market seeing guys paying $4300 for bred heifers and thought bull markets born in pessimism mature on optimism and die in euphoria. This market is correcting but where it stops. We will keep a good amount of heifers and cull heavy as usual. I'm young but have no real desire to expand. Many guys my age range already have what they can handle. The beef herd will keep contracting because there are no new entrants.

[burnt]

Wilton Ranch - excellent observations and summary! I especially like your insight - "bull markets are born in...". best I've ever heard it said.

[WiltonRanch]

Average calf prices are down $200 from three weeks ago. Prices are still historically high but $200 is big money. Lots are wondering what to do but how long can you leave them on the cow before you need to make a decision or watch everything go backwards. If rumours are true there is going to be a lot coming to town sooner than later. This local market is gonna tank for a bit. What is shaping here is 6 weights are trading $2.65 and 8 weights after the new year maybe $2.30. Still $1.37 a lb for the gain if things hold. We've held and fed many times to not hardly get our feed back.

[perfecho]

There goes the money for or two bales of hay to keep the cow over the winter.....

[WiltonRanch]

Exactly. Justifying $4000 Breds will be hard too. Even with breeder market in USA in full idiot mode I can't fathom many up here hot and heavy for crazy bred prices. Who wants that kind of risk with 10 cent hay and a downward price trend. What is hay trading for in your area? Lots of straw being baled around here. We'll be fine cause of decent greenfeed and carryover. I just wonder about general feed grain supplies. There'll be lots of grain and straw fed or pellets and straw but where is all the barley? Our barley was pitiful and oats got baled, and talking with others around the results were similar. Think there is going to be a feed grain shortage in the new year especially if it gets cold. Only so much wheat you can feed a cow.

[perfecho]

Looking at about 10-12 cents/lb of hay around here...and green feed is expensive too.....
Will likely cull hard, but won't be too far off our cow numbers, but having purebreds, will likely keep very few bulls, sell majority of calves.

[riders2010]

Cheap Australian beef anyone? It s coming to a free trade Zone near you.

[WiltonRanch]

Riders it's been coming here for years. Arby's roast beef, a portion of most if not all fast food burgers will have a certain percentage. They need a steady homogenous supply so they take a blend of Aussie, American and Canadian beef. Think the amount imported from Australia, NZ, and SA was limited at 50000 tonnes but that is old numbers. Gotta also consider a lot of this beef is bos indicus and cooking it in any other form than hamburger our palate would not be accustomed to.