Tone is set for very strong Bred Heifer sales into December

[gaucho]

Any body figure out the cost of depreciation on those $4500 - 5000 bred heifers over then next few years??? Yes I think a uniform and functional cow herd is important but somehow anything that is that high priced has had a bit of grain to spice her up...chances are good you'll have to keep doing that to keep her in your herd to... By the time those cows are in their best production years they will be producing calves at the bottom of the cattle cycle... sounds like a definition of insanity...

[SADIE]

These animals just came off fall grazing. Been getting the same product for a lot of years and not porked up.

There were more in that sale at a heavier weight.

Some at a lighter weight.

Anyway each to our own.

[kato]

A word of caution here. We sold our three open cows yesterday. Two good d1 cows brought .875 per pound. Average price for the day. The younger cow brought $1.01. An average salvage value of about $1100.00 for cows and $1200 for younger ones needs to be considered.

The money made in this case was the fact that there were only three open in a herd of 150, and that two of these were bought at post bse prices.

Buying top line stock is all well and good, and can be an excellent investment, but only if they are managed to get the full potential from their breeding. Sadie's a pro, so there's no problem there. It's the starry eyed rookies that I worry about.

[smcgrath76]

Interesting thread. I don't watch the shows when I go, but personally I really like Agribition. It is a great place to see a lot of people and build personal relationships. There are also a lot of good cattle there. They are not necessarily for everyone and we can argue about the management of those cattle pre/post show, but it is what it it is. The commercial sale probably does provide some perspective on value when taken in context. People will pay a premium for the promotional/social aspect of the show as well.
I will also agree that there are some good programs around my area that sell a lot of heifers. That said, most of those heifers are not for me and the way we operate.
If folks are profitable I would say, have at it. If they are not, but are willing to pay the difference with their own money, again, have at it. I think Gaucho's point on depreciation is a huge one. It is a big hidden cost for lots of folks. The tradeoff is cash flow. To generate the same cash flow in a low market requires more cows. The issue is really timing of when you purchase/obtain/breed those cows. I think that is actually probably reflected in the open prices.
Most definitely not all cows are created equal. there are good and bad in every breed. I have some SMAR cows here that have been good (bought right). The oldest is an M. I have also culled some alphabet cows (made it through the entire tattoo series) that were AN and others that were HEAN. Our biggest challenge here is sophomore cows, but we have started fitting those into our beef program to reduce/eliminate that depreciation expense.
We are a little different than some as I rely very heavily on data before I even waste my time on phenotype. I don't have time to look at every nice looking animal only to find out they don't fit. I would rather look at ones that fit and pick out the nice ones. We also aren't necessarily looking for the highest numbers. Breeding consistent numbers with similar phenotypes over time will create consistency. This is the inverse of the showring approach, and is actually the approach a lot of the folks Sadie talks about take, prior to entering the ring. As I say, to each their own.
GF - you should come next year. We won't watch the show, but I would gladly buy you a beer and have a visit. About 1/2 way for each of us.

[WiltonRanch]

So true Sean. I don't totally depend on epds but use them in conjunction with the phenotype and pedigree. Other day we were picking out replacements and boy you sure can tell the certain cow families that are prolific in the herd. Correctness is paramount but sometimes I'll select some that may not look as fancy now cause I know how decent their parentage is.

[grassfarmer]

If you could turn back the clock on the successful teenage cows that we all have a few of I bet not many people would pick them as heifer calves.
About sure to be in the bottom half size and weight wise, not the heavy, fleshy, big hip type that the show ring likes.
Most producers talk about maternal but pick the terminal traits every time. Size, growth, fat, muscle. Same with the bulls.

[WiltonRanch]

True grass. Catch ourselves doing it too. Best group of replacements we ever picked out were not our biggest but the most correct structurally. Problem is they were a bit shorter so we're using a bit more simmie to lengthen them out. We don't typically use the real terminal simmies and we may not have the biggest calves but they fit better with angus and have better longevity, and mostly traditional fb flek but we have a few of those black "scrubs". Time will tell if that decision was right but they do look good.

[SADIE]

Been busy the last couple of days picking up my bred heifers from my supplier off the farm. He was cleaned out quickly from his two regular buyers both who supported his pens at CWA.

Check DLMS Sales. 6 Mile and Guest sold 360 at Swift Current on Wed. Much tighter price range here. Low of $2700 to $2800 and high to $4200 and $4100.00.

Looks like about a $3300.00 average.

In Saskatchewan there are only two commercial cattle shows left that I know of. Edam has the one day event Oct 31 weekend and now the CWA.

To gain further insite (If anyone desires) on what happens at the CWA commercial cattle show that ends up in the Sale that was a CROWD CATCHER on the Saturday at 12:00 noon.

The cattle show up Wed night and Thursday morning. That is when the contributors work together with weigh in, feeding and socializing. I along with other buyers try to show up Thursday night and walk the barns. Most contributors use this type of show to try to get "Value added" for a sample of their farm production.

Networking with the cattlemen and see how they handle and feed their stock at the show, how quiet their cattle are in their pens, their attitude and knowledge about the industry and what happens at home tells one a lot if one wants to purchase into their program.

How many brands are the bred heifers are carrying. The ones that bring top price and including where I purchase always have NVB. My entire cow herd carries the one iron KH on right hip.

That is important to me.

A couple of the lower price bred pens climbed the walls back in the barn on arrival. The purchaser runs an auction barn east of Regina.

My family come home and help. Quiet cow herd is worth a lot at this farm. My wife, son and both daughters are all professional people. Now we have two grandsons who all will when they can take their turn and help at the farm. Often I work the herd alone.

Watching Bill C6 in Alberta right re-inforces that aspect of a quiet cow herd.



Selecting for phonotype and longevity seems to be working in our program. Just laid in the 25 breds and put my order in for the fall of 2016.

THis past spring and summer our older cows were all checked "mouthed" for age using dentition. There are about 20 that still came home and "in Pup" but are being sold early in new year for being either Broken Mouth or Smooth Mouth Cattle. These animals were purchased back in 2003 & 2004 from this same supplier. They are F1s Angus bulls on Fleck Simmental cows.

My supplier now being sold out of his breds is heading to Little Creek Sale in December to resupply his Fleck Sim herd so that his herd stays consistent and can keep his program going.

Forgot how to download a pic otherwise I would of included what I had the privilege to take a cut for my bred order.

Calving dates--fit my program.

Predictable calving ease---I saw lots of wrecks in poor bred heifer programs when I was in practice.

Calves out of these heifers. Good bulls with some growning punch reflecks in the first calf crop.

Predictability, reliability and consistency at my age and my point in time is worth a lot.

P.S. Bigger cows. I guess that is why I have irrigation and have consistent ability for quality hay each year.

[SADIE]

Sean

You were present at CWA. Go to CWA 2015 Commercial Cattle Sale results and print off the two pages. It shows weights, price, contributor and purchaser.

Again the whole sale success stemmed around the placement of two or three key pens in that sale.

key points to note:

1)supporting two or three key pens does not mean you have to purchase those pens. That sale I drove down with my trailer empty and drove home empty as well but not after checking the barns to make sure someone else did not need a trailer to haul my direction.

Still had a drink in the YARDS with those key consignors and the successful bidders.

2)Been present over the years when my supplier pens have or were going to fall lower that market average. I made sure I picked them up.

3)In Saskatchewan right now with the chaos of these PFRA pastures in Transition and other pasture leases I believe there will be a great opportunity to increase a cow herd on grass lease positions opening up. Like other key purchasers at the sale on some of the higher priced pens. That purchase got them into the farm inventories to purchase more animals at the FARM PRICE. Likely closer to CWA sale average. It costs about 3% to sell a bred or at SLS about $120.00 so that is often taken into consideration as well.

[grassfarmer]

So I guess the "death spiral" you predicted for the cow/calf sector as a result of eartag regulations didn't pan out?
I agree there are lots of opportunities right now - there usually are if you are prepared to look for them. A friend in Alberta just bought some really good 6 year old black Angus bred cows for $1800. In my eyes a substantially better buy than $4000 bred heifers.