Market giveth market taketh

[blackjack]

When one thinks the market was to good be true...

[burnt]

We will be seeing these prices for at least 2-3 more years! they said...

[15444]

They can easily drop another $200 on the calves before I'll be too worried. I was quite happy with $800 calves and overjoyed with $1200 ones. Lots of high-cost producers out there that only became higher cost with these prices.

[blackjack]

So true Burnt...saw some consignments this past week that makes one wonder if there are some wrecks already starting.

[grassfarmer]

In agreement with 15444 for once! Looking at Calgary Stockyards prices this week for a 550lb steer/heifer average would be $1306. At the bottom of the seasonal cycle that's still pretty impressive money to me.

[blackjack]

Just curious who are the high cost producers ?

[WiltonRanch]

A guy knew damn well when U.S. Prices were starting to dive this summer it was coming here. The cattle cycle is just at play. I wouldn't doubt we see bottom for a couple years. However prices will trend down to this point. Watch the dispersals coming up in time cause if it's like anything else more stuff is sold when prices are going down instead of up. Grass guys if they bought early this fall may be feeling a bit uneasy. If next fall prices keep eroding it may not be pretty.

[blackjack]

Thats why I find it fastinating those producers buying high priced breds for example wiltonranch. When that is one of few management decisions we control as a cow-calf producer.Last time I checked we sell a commodity with margins that are out of our control.

[15444]

Blackjack,

The 200 cow/calf guy that runs 12 different late-model tractors because he doesn't like switching implements.

The backgrounder who buys almost every piece of ground that comes up, runs a full fleet of very nice, late model equipment and only backgrounds 300 head at maximum and sometimes less than 200.

[grassfarmer]

There was an interesting document doing the rounds out of North Dakota recently. It shows that the price per pound to raise a calf had roughly doubled since 2000. Often ranchers are their own worst enemies when it comes to controlling costs.

http://www.canadiancattlemen.ca/2015/11/09/north-dakota-beef-production-costs-jump-200-per-cent/

[blackjack]

All of us have been through the bse years so I don't think we'll forget what we had to do...but was it not fun this past year to feel at least somewhat rewarded for the past.

[perfecho]

If the Canadian $ starts going up, that will be a major effect...although that doesn't seem to be in the short term....