To Buy cow calf pairs or not?

[tweaker101]

Well fellow agriville people's just wondering whats the collective thoughts on expanding?...have a option of picking up more cow calf pairs.

[smcgrath76]

I don't think it is a bad time if you get the right deal and can dollar cost average them into your cowherd. Most buyers this spring were buying with cash from the upswing, heading into the downswing, and for my money I think there were a lot of money losing cows purchased. Depends a bit on where you are at and how the extra cows can change your fixed costs.

[WiltonRanch]

When is this market going to bottom? I'm no expert but I have a feeling we won't see it till 2017 at least maybe 2018. If you can hold off and wait for a year or 2 you'll get a lot of those $2800 bred cows for $2000 or less. Still too much optimism out there to keep bred market strong while feeder market is eroding. Wonder how those $4200 bred heifers bought out of vermillion auction market pencil with $1000 or less steers.

[smcgrath76]

WiltonRanch - If you got 100% conception and have 0 cost of production it should only take 4 years to pay for them... have a little optimism (LOL).

[tweaker101]

I guess there is no right or wrong answer on my question as every situation is different.

[perfecho]

The prices are already decently low...go for it...you will eventually make money at it if you keep your operating costs in line....

[kato]

It's more important than ever to buy good ones now. That can change the profitability on them quicker than the initial price.

[WiltonRanch]

Very true kato. The cheap ass trader cows never pencil out. My reasoning is to buy good quality when everything cheapens up. We're at the point where our herd is producing enough females to sustain our numbers. I like keeping my own females anyway but sometimes it doesn't hurt to buy a few good ones to improve the herd. Our herd would be about middle road for cow size and production. We give up some to produce females but in the grand scheme the only money out is bull power and feed. I really don't want any more cows as I don't want to go beyond a 10 to 1 ratio for land base to cow.

[errolanderson]

It may be some time before the North American cattle market recovers. Canada entered a recession in January, 2015 and now U.S. business is in the early stages of a recession. It's possible that the U.S. may be in-recession through 2017/18.

Unfortunately, this will continue to impact the demand side of the wholesale beef market.

[smcgrath76]

As well, to add to the previous comment. Oil is starting a slow and projected long move upward. This drives the Cdn $ upwards, thus driving the price of calves relative to the US downward. I think there will be a lot of bounces along the way and some pricing opportunity, but the trend for the next couple of years looks the wrong direction to me.

[SCS]

We breed 60 to 100 heifers at it has worked well, know what we have!

[WiltonRanch]

We dumped a pile of lates, opens, and drys today. Probably over 10% of the herd. I'm with you Sean this market has been on the downward side of the cycle for 2 years already. Couple years down before it bottoms. I am not too optimistic right now but ask me in a couple years. Best to take a profit when prices are good and trim the fat for the ride down. Have some old grass that should be renovated so a couple years in crop and back in to grass in time to ride the market up.

[errolanderson]

Agree with the comment of a higher loonie into last half 2016.

Fallout in USD due to U.S. business now entering a mild recession may support further gains in crude and the CAD.

No rate hike seen by the Fed despite all the media hype to the contrary (IMO).