There's a second cow.

[kato]

The USDA website must have been busy, I couldn't hear the webcast. Their server couldn't keep up.

So far, this is what I've found. They'll post a transcript later.

Statement By Deputy Administrator Dr. John Clifford For The Animal And Plant Health Inspection Service

June 30, 2004


“At approximately, 3:45 p.m. today, we were notified by the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa that the inconclusive screening test sample reported on June 25, tested negative for BSE upon confirmatory testing.

“NVSL used the world-recognized gold-standard test for BSE, the immunohistochemistry test to confirm this finding.”

One down, one to go. (so far)

[blackjack]

kato... don't get me wrong but these little stunts from the the USDA is no less than a bunch of baloney... why would they release this information if they were not going to give all the facts about the animal... sad excuse for the US government to say their on top of BSE testing with the quick test... US tell us when you find a real case and keep these fradulent claims to yourselves...

[BWC]

Suprise .... a false positive. the last figures I am aware of out of Europe is that 1 in 10,000 will test false positive. At this point after the USDA has tested a few more than 7000 since JUne 1 if the second case turns up as a false positive, surely this will raise red flags in the scientific community around the world, if it does'nt it should. Sooner or later our friends to the south will have to come clean whether they want to or not.

[grassfarmer]

BWC, that is a surprise - I thought the level of accuracy was much lower than that leading to a much higher percentage of false positives.

[BWC]

I believe my figures are correct, if not someone please correct me, I am always scared of being caught up in conspiracy theories but I believe that they have everything to lose( the USA)
at this point in time. The science says community would like us all to accept their side that false positives are much more frequent. Please if someone can supply me with other validated figures , I would be very interested in seeing them.

[kato]

Why would I keep that report to myself? I would think that we all have an interest in keeping track of the goings on down south, whether we believe them or not.

There's nothing to be gained by ignoring what's going on these days. Good news, bad news, whatever, the more informed we are, the better.

If we have all the information, we can make up our own minds. The easiest way to get fooled is to only know a part of the story. Then you are fair game.

On another note, if there's enough false positives, it will cease to be a news story. The USDA knows the attention span of the media.

Now, to show I am as cynical as anyone else, I bet the next 'result' will come on Friday after markets close, and the U.S. is starting a long weekend, especially if it is bad news. This is not a bad thing, BTW, because it does help minimize the panic stealing that is bound to go on.

[kato]

Oh... I get it ... US keep it to yourselves! LOL

Got reading too fast! Must have been the extra coffee at dinner!

[rsomer]

I understand BWCs numbers to be correct although one of the five rapid tests the USDA uses has never had a false positive.

I don't think the U.S. has everything to loose by finding another BSE positive. Although the U.S. likes to point out that the Washington Holstein was not an indigenous case of BSE, the world other than Canada has shut their borders to imports of U.S. cattle. The U.S. lost most of their export markets in December but kept their prices strong by unfairly continuing to block our live cattle. Seems like we are the losers.

[kato]

If they had one of their own, their arguments against us would lose a lot of steam.

Then maybe we could work together on this deal, instead of bickering back and forth between countries.

It's a North American market, whether they like it or not, but as long as we are the only ones who have a recorded positive, they won't change their attitude about that.

[BWC]

Hey not to worry about the misread if I could type or write worth a rip there would'nt have been a problem.Also did some research on quick tests from two suppliers of the USDA, BIO- RAD, and Prionics INC., and their disclaimers have them covered for a much larger rate than 1 in 10,000 false positives.
I guess the deeper I dig the higher the walls get, but I'm not throwing out the shovel yet. I am still of the opinion that the Americans have to be very careful with the science, if they get caught in any discrepecy in their testing it will immediately blow their credibility to the rest of the world. Remember that the hard line that the Japanese are taking on testing was mostly because their government tried to keep their original BSE under wraps, and it almost cost them their jobs.
Right now the Americans feel very safe because they can consume what they produce, but if they botch consumer confidence. They could be faced with the same situation that the Japanese were.

[BWC]

How about this little rumor.

Rumors are racing even more on this one (Is
there a leak at the USDA?), like suggestions the animal involved is an 8-year
old cow from Idaho that tested positive as many as three times with rapid test
kits. We don't know if any of this is true, but can report with certainty that
such ideas are now in wide circulation. Such thinking/expectations/fears could
skew cash and futures trading through the end of the week. Assuming it takes
about the same amount of time to get final results on the second inconclusive
as it did on the first (about 5 days), USDA may have nothing to say in this
regard until Sunday or Monday.

[grassfarmer]

Quite believe it RPK, with Sunday being 4th July it could be a good day to sneak out the news - almost as good as on the eve of Christmas! worrying that it comes from Idaho that's too close to Canada.

[rsomer]

Lets hope the next BSE positive whether it is this one or another is a cow about 8 years old or older. If an animal that was born after the ban on feeding ruminant protein is found positive it will be a entirely different problem than finding an older cow.

[kato]

Idaho's too close to Canada for me to feel to comfortable.

Mind you, there's no news of the CFIA being contacted yet. They were contacted within a day of the Washington cow.

I guess no news is good news.