There's a second cow.

[whiteface]

Rsomer I do appreciate your cool headed, detailed approach to addressing our problem. I too love "taking the high road and leading by example." Which is why I also would love to leave the whole border thing alone and focus on our own problem. Lets build and test, now more than ever. They will somehow try to use these 2 ( and subsequently more) against us. I for the life of me cannot see that a "US" case will ever surface. This is a left handed way to attack us further. They know we're dead serious about testing and exporting and they don't have measures in place that we do ( the traceback, the needless killing of thousands of cows that even breathed on our BSE case ) and they absolutly will have egg on their face if we convince ANYONE to take our meat that won't take theirs. The pressure on them to open the border to us is huge. "Science", NAFTA challenge, needing to set an example for Japan and Mexico, they'll do anything to "prove" why they shouldn't... how about trying to "prove" on "Canadas behalf" how many "diseased" cows are up here because of course we sure as hell don't check or do anything for that matter as well as the US. R-calf will be sure and tell the world that.

[rsomer]

I believe it is just a matter of when, not if, the U.S. finds a BSE cow they have to call their own. Just what the U.S. will do in regards to opening our border after they find their cow will remain to be seen. I don't think we will have to wait very long to find out.

CME Live Cattle Futures closed yesterday at $87.87, opened this morning at $85 and are trading at $86.075.

[kato]

USDA webcast at 4:30 Eastern daylight time on usda.gov.

[kato]

The USDA website must have been busy, I couldn't hear the webcast. Their server couldn't keep up.

So far, this is what I've found. They'll post a transcript later.

Statement By Deputy Administrator Dr. John Clifford For The Animal And Plant Health Inspection Service

June 30, 2004


“At approximately, 3:45 p.m. today, we were notified by the USDA National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) in Ames, Iowa that the inconclusive screening test sample reported on June 25, tested negative for BSE upon confirmatory testing.

“NVSL used the world-recognized gold-standard test for BSE, the immunohistochemistry test to confirm this finding.”

One down, one to go. (so far)

[blackjack]

kato... don't get me wrong but these little stunts from the the USDA is no less than a bunch of baloney... why would they release this information if they were not going to give all the facts about the animal... sad excuse for the US government to say their on top of BSE testing with the quick test... US tell us when you find a real case and keep these fradulent claims to yourselves...

[BWC]

Suprise .... a false positive. the last figures I am aware of out of Europe is that 1 in 10,000 will test false positive. At this point after the USDA has tested a few more than 7000 since JUne 1 if the second case turns up as a false positive, surely this will raise red flags in the scientific community around the world, if it does'nt it should. Sooner or later our friends to the south will have to come clean whether they want to or not.

[grassfarmer]

BWC, that is a surprise - I thought the level of accuracy was much lower than that leading to a much higher percentage of false positives.

[BWC]

I believe my figures are correct, if not someone please correct me, I am always scared of being caught up in conspiracy theories but I believe that they have everything to lose( the USA)
at this point in time. The science says community would like us all to accept their side that false positives are much more frequent. Please if someone can supply me with other validated figures , I would be very interested in seeing them.

[kato]

Why would I keep that report to myself? I would think that we all have an interest in keeping track of the goings on down south, whether we believe them or not.

There's nothing to be gained by ignoring what's going on these days. Good news, bad news, whatever, the more informed we are, the better.

If we have all the information, we can make up our own minds. The easiest way to get fooled is to only know a part of the story. Then you are fair game.

On another note, if there's enough false positives, it will cease to be a news story. The USDA knows the attention span of the media.

Now, to show I am as cynical as anyone else, I bet the next 'result' will come on Friday after markets close, and the U.S. is starting a long weekend, especially if it is bad news. This is not a bad thing, BTW, because it does help minimize the panic stealing that is bound to go on.

[kato]

Oh... I get it ... US keep it to yourselves! LOL

Got reading too fast! Must have been the extra coffee at dinner!

[rsomer]

I understand BWCs numbers to be correct although one of the five rapid tests the USDA uses has never had a false positive.

I don't think the U.S. has everything to loose by finding another BSE positive. Although the U.S. likes to point out that the Washington Holstein was not an indigenous case of BSE, the world other than Canada has shut their borders to imports of U.S. cattle. The U.S. lost most of their export markets in December but kept their prices strong by unfairly continuing to block our live cattle. Seems like we are the losers.

[kato]

If they had one of their own, their arguments against us would lose a lot of steam.

Then maybe we could work together on this deal, instead of bickering back and forth between countries.

It's a North American market, whether they like it or not, but as long as we are the only ones who have a recorded positive, they won't change their attitude about that.