I'm worried

[kato]

Export Market Update

Contact: Gregg Doud, NCBA, Chief Economist

excerpt...

"The U.S. indicated that it will be seeking OIE “provisionally free” status. Japan is unconvinced that we are OIE provisionally free. Presumably, this could change upon seeing the results of the surveillance program."

If the Japanese are impressed by a provisionally free status, will they insist that the border stay closed to Canadian cattle?

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, but does this mean that the U.S. is willing to let us crash and burn in order to get the Japanese market back?

If this is the case, then I guess we have just learned how important Canada's friendship is to the United States.

If this is how their best trading partner, and guardian of their northern border, and supposedly best friend is regarded, then is it any wonder they are losing respect around the world.

I really don't like the looks of this.

[cakadu]

Kato, there are many things to be concerned about regarding the opening of the border, not the least of which is this.

The time for clinging to the "life raft" of an open border may slowly be loosing air.

A friend and I were talking this morning about the implications of both Cargill and Lakeside increasing their slaughter capacity. That alone does not bode well for a border opening soon.

The impending election in the U.S. will and has been having an impact on an open border.

The question is, what are we going to do about it? Are we going to continue to sit and wait and hope, or are we going to start taking steps to help ourselves?

[jensend]

if your interpretation is right kato then i think the crap will hit the fan with aafc, cca, cfia, abp, etc. i would add that i looked at the same posting as you and immediately though the ncba was putting an optimistic spin on the negotiations. we've seen that over the last month and when the japanese give their interpretation it generally doesn't seem as hopeful.

[pmckenna]

One of the problems with the latest US election (presidential) is that there is always one. Senate, House, State Gub, State Senate, State House, Fireman, Judge. They continually rotate, so internal politics gains the minor hill each time.

One would think that the eventual demand for protein would pull things back our our way on demand side. This is very good for us, as there is a preference for beef. Consider though, what we are dealing with if the end result is loss of appetite. Chickens and hogs have more reproductive gain than cattle.

I'm pretty sure that a co-ordinated industry will keep the ball rolling.

[whiteface]

I can't actually believe ANYONE still has border opening hopes. The packing plants expansions have absolutly SEALED that border shut for who knows how long. What I want to know is, we have ALWAYS known the States weren't on our side, if it ever came to blows, and it has with being left to hang over the Japaneese market but what I just can't get, help me out with this guys, is REALLY why do the Japaneese view our meat as different from U.S. We know its not but why do they think it is. Did the States threaten to bomb them, like they do everyone else? I just don't see how we are being left out of this? Is it that we were honest with our first cow and then an American found a CCIA tag to slam in another and now Japan figures Canada is diseased just because the States are lying? I have no hope for this border opening to the south but I'm not okay with the lying states to get away with the prize when our beef is as good or better (because we're honest) what's the deal? Give me your opinions.

[Joe-2]

Hunker down folks!! This is going to get worse before it gets better,if you ask me.America has made it abundantly clear that CDN. beef and cattle are expandable in terms of NAFTA.As long as they can still get what they want out of Canada(energy,oil and gas,electricity)us lowly ag producers can go suck it.How much more evidence do you need??USDA,NCBA and the rest of them are only pretending to be "our friends" and letting that piss ant outfit R-calf do the dirty work and take all the heat for it.SO BE IT.I asked this question before;"Just how is it that pissy little r-calf so effortlessly made the mighty USDA roll over and play dead??".Read between the lines and you can find hypocrisy in virtually everything anyone from the States says.Lets face it,as far as the Americans and our own governments and industry organizations are concerned WE ARE EXPENDABLE!!!Get used to it and do whatever you have to to survive.Our governments are likely to offer us a token payout and more debt this fall when the carnage starts.Don't take it.Don't spend or borrow 5 cents more than you have to.
A friend of mine posed this theory to me not long ago;let's tear a page out of the American play book.Shut down all beef imports.Take us to court if you don't like it.This will eat up at least some of our production.At what price?Who knows?Does it matter???You want a mass cull?? If the government won't come up with a buyout a closed market will cut numbers soon enough provided no outside interests can screw with it.Some will survive and some won't.I probably won't but it is absolutely insane for us to keep on producing this many cattle at a loss for all of us and for such a gain for Tyson ,Cargill,and lets not forget those good old Canadian boys Nillson Brothers.
Will our gov't ever have the parts to stop imports??? NO.Will they stand up to the Americans to save the livlihoods of 2% of the population who for the most part don't vote Liberal anyway???HAHAHA ya right!!
Hunker down boys and girls because I'm pretty sure that we are screwed at least for the foreseeable future.

Anybody else hear a rumour about Cargill,R-calf members,a two day custom kill and retained ownership of boxed beef heading south??
Ask me if I'm pissed off!!!

[rusty1]

I've said before, our 1 million head of traditional fat live cattle south bound and 140,000 head of feeders (2002), amount to 3 weeks of their capacity. Are we important to the US - go figure.

We can do it ourself.

[stettlerab]

We all deserve to angry. If I could introduce some facts.
1) In Canada there is enough beef to meet the countries needs. Even if half of the cattle producers went broke there would still be sufficient supply. The government has done quite a bit for us considering the situation.

2)The US needs our oil right now. Nafta or no Nafta, if they did not need our oil they would not be importing it.

3) The US does not need our beef. They have enough of their own. If they needed our beef it would be a different story.

4) If the US exports to Japan, that may use enough American beef to once again trigger a demand for imports to the US from Canada.

5)When they need the beef they will open the border. They will buy our cattle, feed them US corn and sell them to Japan. And make money from it.

We (Canadians) really are a small player in all of this except for our supply of oil. Remember the Americans own the oil companies. It looks pretty hopeless doesn't it.
How many cattlemen are able to pay their fuel bills right now. It is going to be a real tough summer.

[grassfarmer]

All very depressing, if familier stuff to me having gone through the UK bse fiasco. It seems to be the way with BSE - just when the situation can't get worse ... it does again and again.
But Canada should not be in this position - we've only had one case of BSE where the UK had tens of thousands.
As I told an ABP rep at a public BSE meeting in February (and got shot down for my remarks) we need to break these packers before they break us - I think we just have to step up the pressure on them somehow - what have we to lose now?

[rusty1]

Good news - Good news - it's election time this fall. Let form a new party -Cattleman's Anonymous. Maybe the grain guys would join too.