I'm worried

[cowman]

In the end America will probably have the clout to force Japan to take their meat. If we are the sacrifice to get that done...then they'll surely do it?
I think the time has come to forget about the export market? Get our numbers in line with our domestic needs and forget about a fickle and often crooked export market?
Of course to do that we would need a bold leadership and the fact is we just don't have it! Immediately cull one million cows. Stop all imports of beef from any country who refused to take ours. Expropriate the two American packing plants at fair market value and put in a transmission team to run it until it could be farmed out to a co-op type of system. Would that be possible? If the government decides to build a highway through my front yard they have no problem expropriating my property, so in the "national interest" why would they have a problem expropriating Cargill/IBP?
Of course this won't ever happen! Unfortunately all we have are politicians...no statesmen!

[bward]

Right now we are exporting tons of boneless beef into the US market. This alone is helping to balance US demand and keep the US cost of beef from exploding. I have heard that a simple 4 ounce steak sandwich in the US has gone from 4.99 to 8.99 and these kind of prices are making consumers back off. We need to stop sending ANY beef across the border. Stop all exports completely and then sit back and watch the fallout.The result from this will have them scrambing to fill orders and the price of their beef and cattle will rise so high that importers of US beef will look elsewhere for supplies. The policy should change so that they either take all our beef products or they get none. I am sick of being a patsy for them selling them our high quality beef at a loss.

[pandiana]

Everything looks rosey in the US. We are not even registering on their radar. It will take no time at all before the US herd expands to fill the 10% void in production. Unless we have a unique product we will have nothing to sell.


http://www.qtinfo.com Friday August 6, 2004
QT Livestock Outlook

QT Early CME Livestock Calls
Cattle: lower
Hogs:lower
Bellies: firm


QT Top Livestock Stories
- In a Futuresline interview, Dr. Wayne Purcell of Virigina Tech Livestock Instititue, remains optimistic about the cattle industry over next 4-6 yrs. Sees product demand remaining high & continuing to increase. He expects herd expansion over next few years therefore keeping animals off the market.
- In yesterday's Futuresline interview, Dr. Wayne Purcell, said he expects hog prices to be remain on a positive trend. Dr. Purcell noted environmental restrictions are curtailing production by large entities, and expects producers will not soon experience unprofitable levels.
- Australia July beef exports slightly under June but still well over yr. ago, 1st 7-months of '04 beef exports 510,222t up 5.5% on yr. mostly on a sharp increase to Japan.

[stettlerab]

Cowman
Reducing our production to half is not going to help if we do not have something to replace that income with.

If the grain situation was expanding many cattle producers could break up their grass and leave the fellow with the rougher land to produce cattle at a lower price. That would work. but grain prices combined with the cost of farming is not an attractive option.

Without a replacement for exports to the US, natural competitive forces will force the price down as land owners with grass will be forced to do something to harvest their land's productivity.

Some grass that was used for pasture will be cut for hay, forcing the price of hay down. Essentially without a way to market the productivity of our land prices will decline in many areas. Maybe we should start producing honey. There seems to be a market for that. Cattle producers are used to getting stung anyway--)

Basically our country depends on exports.

Really what we need is to double demand for beef in this country. That is impossible.

Reducing the cow herd to half will cause our prices to drop dramatically in the near future and the surplus of grass and productive capability will mean that the prices will stay low.

One reality in Canada is that we have a lot of productive land. Without markets for our land productivity we will compete ourselves to death.

We need to produce and sell beef. There is not a great problem in producing the beef, but selling it is difficult.

[cakadu]

Kato, we do have lots to be worried about and not just with the border not opening. The majority seemed to have pinned their hopes on the border opening, which now doesn't look like much of a reality for the forseeable furture. We've got a massive amount of cattle and unfortunately with something perishable like meat, you don't have a whole lot of options.

For whatever reasons, our leadership seems focused on the american border and it is time we look elsewhere. With the notable exceptions of BIG-C and the proposed producer packing plants, we have had little in the way of support for these groups - be it government (although I don't think we necessarily want government money), organizations or what have you.

If the majority of grassland gets turned into annual crops, that doesn't bode well for biodiversity or for soil and water conservation, not to mention carbon stores. We have lost so much in terms of wetlands and riparian areas, both of which serve vital functions in our ecosystems.

The picture is not very pretty and we need to take steps to preserve what we have and enhance it if at all possible. Seeking new markets for our livestock, having new policies and infrastructure in place to bring about the ability to find and develop niche markets etc. is critical at this point in time.

Action is critical.

[kato]

Another thing that worries me is the attitudes that I see developing in people I meet lately.

There are more than a few signs of 'giving up'. That is a big big problem. Once someone gives up it becomes very hard to motivate them to fight on.

We are all now well aware of where we stand in the list of priorities of our neighbours down south. Our eyes are open, and we can't afford to sit around any more and be polite.

We have to refuse to accept platitudes and reasurrances of goodwill from the U.S. There is no goodwill down there for us. We may as well get used to it, and make sure we cut the cord quickly.

As of August 1, 2005 it will have been eight years since the feed ban came into effect. Eight years is an important number in that it drops us to a lower BSE risk country, Whether the Yanks like it or not.

By then, with any luck, we'll be on our way to independence.

[cowman]

stettlerab: You have stated our dilemma exactly how it is! We produce way too much for our population. And there are no easy answers?
Now much as people hate to admit it there are a couple of industries that stay within the demand side of the Canadian population...and are profitable day in and day out! The dairy and poultry sectors?
Of course if we all were involved in a supply management deal, we would need to retire about 75% of the farmland, to make it happen! The resulting economic chaos wouldn't be acceptable.
As I said this is the dilemma we face and no one seems to have any answers.
But the fact is it is unlikely the border will open this year and the other fact is that is the only viable export market we really have! No one else is taking our meat in a signifigant way! And they won't until the USDA says our beef is okay.
If Bush loses this election I sincerely doubt the border will open for at least four years? Kerry is a protectionist big time and a whole lot of his support comes from American farmers who see the value of protecting their domestic markets! The R-calf types if you will? Lets face it, whether we like it or not, the border closure has been very good for the American cattleman?
So consider this scenario? A closed border for four years. Prices falling even further as we continue to vigorously expand our cow herd. How long can anyone last losing money on every head sold? Meanwhile our costs of production and our cost of living continue to go up?
There is enough money in the price of beef at the supermarket to assure all players can survive! Cow/calf, feeders, packers, retailers! But we must reduce the supply to get back in equilibrium with our domestic demand. And yes that means less "take home pay" but more profit? And yes that means a whole hell of a lot of us are going to have to go! Some of us will make that decision and be in control of our destiny and for some the bank will make that decision? Not pretty but it is reality?
The good news is that once that door closes, new doors will open? There is a lot more to life than working like a dog for nothing!

[jensend]

let's get on with other solutions and to heck with cargill, tyson, abp, cfia.

End to U.S. beef import ban long way off: Kamei

Japan's farm minister hinted Tuesday that reaching a resolution in beef-trade talks with the United States may take a long time, despite the two countries' desire to settle the issue of Japan's beef import ban this summer.
"It's difficult to tell the future schedule (of the talks) at this stage," Yoshiyuki Kamei, minister of agriculture, forestry and fisheries, said.

Noting that the Cabinet Office's Food Safety Commission has not yet made any clear decisions in its review of domestic measures against mad cow disease, Kamei said it will be hard to reach an early settlement.

Kamei repeated Japan's position that to remove its import ban, the United States must implement safety measures similar to those Japan has put into place against mad cow disease.

Tokyo imposed the ban after the first U.S. case of the brain-wasting disease was confirmed in a Canadian-born cow in December.

"Taking measures equivalent of those in Japan is a basic requirement" for the removal of the ban, Kamei said. "We will approach the talks in such a way as to avoid damaging consumer trust."

Before removing its import ban, Tokyo wants the U.S. to agree to test all slaughtered cattle for mad cow disease or provide equivalent safety assurances. Washington maintains blanket testing is unscientific.

The Japan Times: Aug. 11, 2004
(C) All rights reserved

there was also coverage of big-c's slaughter plant proposal on the syngenta newsletter this a.m.

[kato]

If Tokyo wants tested beef, then why can't WE sell it to them?

I think our politicians can't see the forest because the trees are in the way.

[jensend]

i think our politicians are bought and paid for by the us and the packers. anyone here remember what speller had to say? look at the calendar and be ready to celebrate the border opening. lol.