Drought?

[grassfarmer]

It may be too early to be raising this concern but what do we do if we get a very dry year in Western Canada?
Whatever problems we had last year with low cattle prices, high grain prices will be many times worse if we get a very poor growing season. I hear some feedlots are growing to plant canola this year rather than grow their own silage as they have good silage stocks on hand plus they can buy cheap hay. I can see hay going up in price pretty quickly and I doubt that as many people will be swath-grazing cereals next winter given the input costs / potential returns from selling a grain crop.
We have had a dry winter in this area but as usual fared better than many areas. We still have snow banks covering maybe 15% of the land and pools of surface water in low spots. I hear that even around Innisfail there are people who haven't had their dugouts filled.

Our own strategy is to try and lock in costs by renting more acres to graze through late fall and as far into winter as possible. The prospects of buying feed in a higher priced market with lower priced calves concerns me greatly.

[per]

You have reason to be concerned Grassfarmer. It is very dry down here south of Calgary as well. I know of feedlots that have also locked in Canola and are going for the profit instead of filling the pit. Kinda like a time-out. Not a good thing. We need all the cogs in the chain. I am still going to give up some acreage to swath grazing because it is so convenient and still cheaper than I think hay will be down here. These high grain prices are being eaten up by inputs and won't last forever anyway. I plan to continue with my crop rotation as it is based not just on prices but hopefully on sound environmental science.

[farmers_son]

Yes, drought is a concern. The snow is all gone and there has been absolutely no run off, not a drop. I do not recall that ever happening before, certainly not like this. Even though some snow did blow into the sloughs and bushes that snow is gone and there is no water at all. Once the frost goes out even the water left from last year will just disappear. It is too early to write off this years grass crop but we may be looking at hauling water to livestock this summer unless it rains enough in the summer to cause run off.

I have enough hay left from last year to do all of this coming winter so I am not as concerned as I would be if the feed yard was near empty. I do take hay and pasture insurance.

I am busy calving, so these sunny warm days are a blessing but definitely it has to rain soon or we are facing a dry year.

[coppertop]

Around here we cattle producers are all commenting on what a great spring it is for calving, but we do need some moisture soon.
Last spring I was up to the steps on the tractor in mud everytime I fed cows, this year I can take the pickup out through all the low spots with no problem.
Haven't even had the old rubber boots out yet, and usually by this time I have lost them at least once in a mudhole somehere in the barnyard !!!