What's been on my mind this past month

[ALLFARMER]

I read that the world population is increasing by 200,000 people/day. In the next 40 years the world population is going to increase by 30 percent.

I have been trying to figure out what that is going to look like....for Canada for Alberta for my farm. What is this going to do to land prices? What is this going to do to grain & cattle prices/demand? Does this statistic make land cheap today should the farms focus be more land or spending to do better with what we currently have?

[burnt]

Save a bit of cash to invest in a course in Mandarin so you can understand your orders.

[Happytrails]

I tend to agree with burnt but not sure if being able to understand our orders would be a plus.

From a different angle, logic would suggest that if land area is constant and the population increases the area per person decreases. Thus the competition for land will intensify. Maybe that is what makes AF want to corner a bit more of the land market. I would caution that land tenure is historically, well, tenuous. The next occupant of your land might obtain it by far different means than you did; e.g. revolution or conquest.

Anyone aspiring to be a land baron had best brush up on their power politics. For most of us I would recommend that we try to match our holdings to our family's labor and management capacity with emphasis on personal fulfillment. Why would we want anything more? We are presently living like kings but without the danger and intrigue. Going for the kingdom loses that lifestyle.

HT

PS Am reading "Why the West Rules-for Now" by Ian Morris. It has a lot of perspective on human endeavors.

[burnt]

Good comments, HT. Land is always a solid asset and the parameters you set out appear sound. However, your sage observation ". . . that land tenure is historically, well, tenuous" has been well documented throughout history.

What I find discomforting is that our democratic process leaves us highly susceptible to influences that are most unfriendly toward the lifestyle and values that made this country what it is. And we all know that those influences are already at work.

What prompted my initial comment is a "rumor" that I heard on Friday that our local stockyards here in Southern Ontario, Brussels Livestock, was recently purchased by Chinese interests. I hope it turns out untrue.

But it is a fact that the Chinese are investigating the construction of a meatpacking plant near Brussels, so time will tell. And it is also a fact that the present owner of the stockyards wants to sell.

[Kathy]

HT quote: " For most of us I would recommend that we try to match our holdings to our family's labor and management capacity with emphasis on personal fulfillment."

Extremely wise words!!

With the passing of legislation in Alberta, like the new Animal Health Act, the Land Stewardship Act, Land Project Areas Act and the Electric Statutes Amendment Act - I feel anyone who owns land, or is thinking of buying more should be very very cautious!

There is NO guarantee of compensation should the government decide to take your land, or freeze its development or use... in the future....

The biggest thing is don't get into more debt. If you've got the cash to spend, you are risking less. If you borrow to buy more land, be prepared to pay much higher interest rates than we presently see.

[Happytrails]

Thanks for the complements Kathy and burnt.
If the Chinese want to build a packing plant or buy an auction market in Canada I don't have a problem. However if they were seeking a dominant role that would be different.
There are some good posts over on commodities pertaining to the limitations of the democratic system. One of the contentions in the book I mentioned earlier is that some of the consequences of social development become destructive to it. Corrections happen in markets and human progress.

[ALLFARMER]

I also agree with Htrails. I was once told............

What are you willing to give up to get what you want????

[grassfarmer]

Is it any worse for Chinese investors to have a "dominant role" in a Canadian sector like auction houses or packing plants than it is Canadians like Nilssons or Americans like Cargill?

[burnt]

How will the Chinese approach of dealing with human rights affect their long-term operations in any place where they take over business interests? Will they adopt western values abroad any better than they do at home?

[perfecho]

Had heard rumors way back when, that it was foreign money that got Nilsson’s out of trouble and into the position they are into today.
Can anyone verify?

[perfecho]

As for Allfarmers original post, I have heard the "population explosion" theory for years......it has mad many “stay in the game”! Theoretically it should make a difference, however I believe until producers take control of their own destiny or there is a major shortage that speculators cannot control, we are most likely destined for similar results.
Land values will most likely continue to rise. In our operation, that is the only investment that makes a lot of sense. Have to farm a long time to make the equal profit in land sales.
Just my 2 cents.

[ALLFARMER]

I was told farming is just a hobby untill u sell your land.

sadly very true

[grassfarmer]

Perfecho, I don't think Nilssons needed foreign investment - they just milk the Canadian taxpayer for it through Federal and Provincial Government. We've put them where they are with our tax dollars.

[Happytrails]

I had a hunch that opposing China having a major role in our industry would bring a reaction from certain quarters. You might say predictable.
Anyone who puts Red China in the same sentence as Nilssons and Cargill makes me want some fresh air. HT

[grassfarmer]

What's the problem HT? Do you consider "Red China" and Nilssons/Cargills as being polar opposites? Sure one is a communist entity whereas some would consider the others as bastions of "free enterprise". You only have to observe the effect of the two systems to realise they are nearly identical. Communism and extreme capitalism as practised by some in AB are very, very similar in outcome.
Just look at your Alberta Government that other bastion of right wing free enterprise. Bill 36 is a communist style land grab the Chinese would be proud of - how can that be in right wing, free enterprise Alberta?

Parsley posted what I thought was a very profound comment on the commodity board.
"What farmers need to make note of, is that Conservatives do not always govern or legislate conservatively. In the case of Alberta property rights, the Conservative government is Communist."