Plan "B"

[Bruce14]

Way past scare is a slight understatement ......... the impacts of this will be felt beyond the beef production and processing sectors for years.

There are several scenarios in my view ........ 1) the US opens up the border for boxed beef in early September; best case scenario. 2) the US establishes a set of critieria which we must meet in order to regain entry; a probable scenario given the political situation in the US - will probably be a one to two year tiem frame if no further cases of BSE are discovered. 3) US abides by the OIE guidelines of a country being required to be BSE free for a period of seven years prior to consideration for market re entry!

Each of the above requires a different strategy for individual cattle producers to manage their way through ......... but there are going to be some very significant changes as a result which are going to be consistent throughout.

One - bankers are going to be taking a very different view of cattle production .......... this situation has scared the living hell out of them ......... cattle may be be deemed a liability by banks ............ we may all be forced to operate on a cash basis!

The cost of operation has just increased ......... disposal of SRM is a cost the cow man is going to have to account for .......... it is approximately 20% of the offals in a cow ........... so now instead of being a credit, it will be a disposal and rendering cost which the processor will pass to the cow's owner ....... estimated to be $25 per head.

Identification and tracking of animals has moved from a optional catergory to non questionable ........... the present situation is compounded by the questions that are left unanswered ........ where did she really come from (presently it is suspected that she originated a specific herd, but there is a significant degree of uncertainity - hence the2700 head destroyed) ......, how was she infected???????? not a single clue ....even the CFIA report indicates that there is not reason to suspect feed!!

There will be skrinkage in the domestic cow herd .........all of the above factors will influence this in addition to the personal situations of the individual cattle producer. Many individuals are in tight spot financially due to the past few years and this fall even in the event of the first scenario that I listed will not be sufficient to help them through it. People are going to assess the risk as to high to be dependant upon export market for an outlet for 50% plus of our production and move back to a more secure position.

Plan B whether we like it or not is already under way. In many respects, we are on the train tracks.............so do we stan in front of the train or do we move with it ?........... I am moving with it .......... fewer cows, a cash basis and a low cost of production focus.

[lou]

Take your grain to the bank: to feed all
the cattle that are going to be going
to the bank.

[kato]

The cow herd is going to shrink, one way or another. As for the immediate future, we all need to start on our own Plan B's. A different one for each of us. Don't wait until the crunch hits....start now.

The thought of going to the bank scares me personally. I can't help but remember the price crash of 1995. That was scary, but it sure made us dust off our ingenuity. We got through it, and were much wiser for the experience.

Check out the balance sheet. Anything not needed? Equity available somewhere?
Think outside the box, as they say. You just may surprise yourself.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 1995 is The Banker is NOT Your Friend. Think for yourself.

[cakadu]

Hmmm, Plan B - lend those who want to buy planes from Bombardier $1.2 Billion in low interest loans. Seems sort of strange that we can find that kind of cash for Bombardier, but none for something as serious as what is happening here.

I'm wondering just how seriously they are taking it down in Ontario and Quebec - with less than 5% of the cow herd down there, is the impact all that great to their economy? It isn't just that the cow industry is going to go by the wayside in another 8 to 10 weeks if things don't improve, it will be a lot of the feed grains - especially here in Alberta as 80% or so of the barley grown goes into the feed industry.

Plan B is worst case scenario and with any luck it will not get to that. Besides, it is only a very short term solution anyway.

[ALICIA]

Cakadu- I am from Ontario. And I can tell you it hurts like hell to sell my old cows for 12 cents a pound and the calfs are going for around 85 cents. I was at the sale barn Tuesday. When October hit I hate to think what the price will be, but I have only so much hay and I will not put my cows in danger by over extending my self.
I am just as much a person as you and a low price for cattle hurts us all no mater if you have 5000 head or 1 head.
My 15yr old cow cost me 1500 as a yearling so I guess she has payed for her keep over the years any way. She weighs 1650 or so at 12 cents thats $198.00 thats beter than if she dies giving birth again, and belive me I was stressed with her this year because she lost a lot of weight and I didn't know if she would make it to grass, but she did and has a great steer calf on her that weighs about 600.

[ALICIA]

I think that the average rural person in Ontario and the Maritimes anyway do care about whats going on. They did anyway with Hay West. Its the LIBERAL government of Eastern Canada and Quebec that don't give a damn.

The whole western Canadian economy is going in the tubes because Mr L (Which way do I wear my hair today) Vanclief thought it prudent to tell the world about our Mad Cow. Next time Lyle............ Shoot, Shovel and SHUT up! Not only has that single cow hurt the cattle industry, but also the sheep industry that many of us got into to DIVERSIFY! Those of us that still have hogs after the price went in the can in 1998 and 2002 will also see the price crash again Big Time when Maple Leaf and the rest try to get rid of all the good beef.

Our government in Ottawa is more concerned about Bombardier, once again because its in Quebec. I;m not sure what the answer is but I do know that I have chores to do............ We have cattle, hogs and sheep, feed our own crops. The unfortunate thing about diversification is that all bad news Does affect us.

[kato]

Wouldn't it be nice not to need a plan B? I personally would like the CFIA to continue their search for the origin of the cow. Problems could very well just disappear if they found it. I am still not convinced that every avenue was pursued.

Maybe they should turn it over to people who have the time and determination to "just keep looking". It should be looked at from the perspective of a detective, or investigational reporter, not government.

Questions I would like answered.
1. Are they SURE they found every imported animal back in 1993 when they did the cull of imported cattle?
2. Have they tried to trace all those American cows that made their way from feedlots to our cow herd? I think they should at least try.
3. Does the fact that they can't connect this cow to any herdmates through DNA seem funny to you? It tells me that there needs to be more investigation.

[Bruce14]

I have no doubt that the "average" rural eastern resident has sympathy and some understanding for the BSE crisis.

What about the city people. Are they seeing any drop in pricing at all? Are there any specials being run in the restaraunts or is there simply still to much foreign beef being brought in?

Yes in western Canada we are seeing reduced pricing popping up here and there but it has to happen in the major eastern centres where the population is.

[cakadu]

Alicia and Lilac - I am not referring to producers in those provinces - I am talking about those that are in the major centres and those who do the buying for the food chains like Sobey's etc. I'm not sure that those people understand the gravity of the situation, especially when there hasn't been much of a change in the grocery store. When you have over 4 million people in the greater Toronto area, I'm not sure that they are that much in tune with what is happening in rural Alberta or even Ontario for that matter.

Lilac - we produce lamb and have for over 10 years now. I'm wondering why organizations like CSF and the provincial organizations haven't been more vocal and more visible throughout this whole ordeal. After all, lamb is dropping in price every week it seems like, just when there was some recovery from low prices about a year to 18 months ago.

I really hope there isn't a plan b either because it won't solve the problem in the long run. We need to find out more definitive answers that we can provide to the major countries that are banning our product right now. We will likely not be able to go much longer than 7 weeks with the border remaining closed, let alone 7 years. The recovery time for the current closure is going to take long enough.

[cakadu]

Yes I would have to admit that I did mean the rural Easterns are the "sincere ones"'
They know what life is all about. I have cousins in Toronto and area that don't believe the things they read about the farming situations. They are only 1 generation removed to boot. Its really not much wonder when you walk through any grocery store in any town or city in North America. There is no shortage of food, not lack of variety and certainly no line ups like European or Eastern Bloc nations have experienced. The NA's take their food for granted, and have the disposable income to spend. They should try balancing input bills, farm payments, and machinery leases etc and try and by out of season food. Fruits and vegetables are the prime example.

We see all the publicity that the big chains are getting "Fire Saling" beef at $1/lb. The local Co-op is selling beef paks of meat.......... 145 lbs of assorted cuts for $250 Sounds still like a pretty reasonable return to them, the wholesaler and the packer. Their price is $1.72 a pound, the Sask farmer is getting about 45 cents?

As far as the Sheep Associations, the majority of lambs are just going to market now. Ours went on June 10th. We were happy with what we got, but most of the
spring lambers have not weaned. The numbers of sheep and the lost dollars / head just don't attract the media attention. Roy Leitch of Brandon, and who runs a large feedlot and buying program is quoting loss of $100 / head. That would mean that every penny our buyer paid us for the 95 lb lambs........... is lost to him.
The buyers that we have dealt with are amongst the more honest fellows I have met. They certainly have been straight shooting telling us what kind of lambs are wanted by their order buyers. I certainly don't hold much hope for the sheep industry if we lose their contribution.

All in all we do need to educate the populus, but when the shelfs are full, who would believe us? Lets start by getting a Government in Ottawa that cares.......... or atleast an Ag Minister that can part his hair right, and stand up for his department.

[rusty1]

I found the best claification on this who BSE issue - it's a must read. Finally something that makes sence @ http://www.leiss.ca/chronicles/125
William Leiss is a prof at the U of Calgary.

[ALICIA]

Bruce14- no drop in prices, restrarant are just saying there beef is the finest grade but not saying if its Canada or US etc. Major eastern centres are being keep I think pretty much in the dark.
I just herd about talk of a mass slaughter out west. It was just before a commercial. This is want it said. Talking of a mass slaughter of cattle out west. Commercial. nothing more.
I'f you's are not slaughtering the cattle then the Agr. department has to pay the TV around $10,000.00 for a few minutes of air time on TV because talking about it is not news, but a happening is.
Soom people in the citys, I have heard are starting to talk amoung them selfs because they do not under stand how come the prices in the stores has not gone down. The average person doesn't know about all the meat that is still coming into Canada from out side.
But talk is starting, even the Rolling Stones concert is starting to say we want some of the money to go to the ranchers and farmers. Word is getting out but it is taking time because it has to be by month,person to person.

If it was not for me being on this chat line I would not know what has been going on out there because back east it seem that they are trying to hold on to optimistic thought and don't what any one to be negitive.