Plan "B"

[ALICIA]

May be I'm wrong but if you sell for 50 cents a pound and the feed lot guy sell for 75 a pound the stores are going to buy because it cheeper than the US then the customer is going to buy because its cheep so the demand will go up, our Canada's don't think our meat is bad they trust us we are all Canada and that does mean something. But we have to work together as Canada's and forget about the world trade for now and save our farms and ranches even if it means selling off a few cattle at below cost for now.If we loose our ranches and farms it will not mater if the boarder ever opens up. I think we can eat our way out of this if we sell for less, and look towards tomorrow
If I couldn't afford to buy beef, it sounds better to say I'm a Vegetarian. Lets get our beef market back.

[Bruce14]

Muttley. Actually the guy that made a completley idiotic statement was Jim Melenchuck (Sask. finance minister and ex-Liberal leader).

I heard him on the radio say that he didn't think BSE was going to have that large of an impact on Sask's economy. Uh Jim.... hello... it will have a huge impact. Cattle have had been the only bright spot even in 2 years of drought conditions.

Herd expansion has been charging on with a large number of Albertans setting up ranches in this province. Feedlots have been built and expanded. And guess what. If beef has to be sold at fire sale prices what do you think will that will do to the pork empire the gov't has invested in.

Oh I think you will see an impact on the provincial economy all right. Starting with feed barley at under 1.00/ bu. Some may call me a pessimist but I think I am simply being realistic.

On the radio I heard one talk show guy continually referring to this as the BSE 'scare'. Uh....yeah its a little past a scare.

[Bruce14]

Way past scare is a slight understatement ......... the impacts of this will be felt beyond the beef production and processing sectors for years.

There are several scenarios in my view ........ 1) the US opens up the border for boxed beef in early September; best case scenario. 2) the US establishes a set of critieria which we must meet in order to regain entry; a probable scenario given the political situation in the US - will probably be a one to two year tiem frame if no further cases of BSE are discovered. 3) US abides by the OIE guidelines of a country being required to be BSE free for a period of seven years prior to consideration for market re entry!

Each of the above requires a different strategy for individual cattle producers to manage their way through ......... but there are going to be some very significant changes as a result which are going to be consistent throughout.

One - bankers are going to be taking a very different view of cattle production .......... this situation has scared the living hell out of them ......... cattle may be be deemed a liability by banks ............ we may all be forced to operate on a cash basis!

The cost of operation has just increased ......... disposal of SRM is a cost the cow man is going to have to account for .......... it is approximately 20% of the offals in a cow ........... so now instead of being a credit, it will be a disposal and rendering cost which the processor will pass to the cow's owner ....... estimated to be $25 per head.

Identification and tracking of animals has moved from a optional catergory to non questionable ........... the present situation is compounded by the questions that are left unanswered ........ where did she really come from (presently it is suspected that she originated a specific herd, but there is a significant degree of uncertainity - hence the2700 head destroyed) ......, how was she infected???????? not a single clue ....even the CFIA report indicates that there is not reason to suspect feed!!

There will be skrinkage in the domestic cow herd .........all of the above factors will influence this in addition to the personal situations of the individual cattle producer. Many individuals are in tight spot financially due to the past few years and this fall even in the event of the first scenario that I listed will not be sufficient to help them through it. People are going to assess the risk as to high to be dependant upon export market for an outlet for 50% plus of our production and move back to a more secure position.

Plan B whether we like it or not is already under way. In many respects, we are on the train tracks.............so do we stan in front of the train or do we move with it ?........... I am moving with it .......... fewer cows, a cash basis and a low cost of production focus.

[lou]

Take your grain to the bank: to feed all
the cattle that are going to be going
to the bank.

[kato]

The cow herd is going to shrink, one way or another. As for the immediate future, we all need to start on our own Plan B's. A different one for each of us. Don't wait until the crunch hits....start now.

The thought of going to the bank scares me personally. I can't help but remember the price crash of 1995. That was scary, but it sure made us dust off our ingenuity. We got through it, and were much wiser for the experience.

Check out the balance sheet. Anything not needed? Equity available somewhere?
Think outside the box, as they say. You just may surprise yourself.

One of the most important lessons we learned in 1995 is The Banker is NOT Your Friend. Think for yourself.

[cakadu]

Hmmm, Plan B - lend those who want to buy planes from Bombardier $1.2 Billion in low interest loans. Seems sort of strange that we can find that kind of cash for Bombardier, but none for something as serious as what is happening here.

I'm wondering just how seriously they are taking it down in Ontario and Quebec - with less than 5% of the cow herd down there, is the impact all that great to their economy? It isn't just that the cow industry is going to go by the wayside in another 8 to 10 weeks if things don't improve, it will be a lot of the feed grains - especially here in Alberta as 80% or so of the barley grown goes into the feed industry.

Plan B is worst case scenario and with any luck it will not get to that. Besides, it is only a very short term solution anyway.

[ALICIA]

Cakadu- I am from Ontario. And I can tell you it hurts like hell to sell my old cows for 12 cents a pound and the calfs are going for around 85 cents. I was at the sale barn Tuesday. When October hit I hate to think what the price will be, but I have only so much hay and I will not put my cows in danger by over extending my self.
I am just as much a person as you and a low price for cattle hurts us all no mater if you have 5000 head or 1 head.
My 15yr old cow cost me 1500 as a yearling so I guess she has payed for her keep over the years any way. She weighs 1650 or so at 12 cents thats $198.00 thats beter than if she dies giving birth again, and belive me I was stressed with her this year because she lost a lot of weight and I didn't know if she would make it to grass, but she did and has a great steer calf on her that weighs about 600.

[ALICIA]

I think that the average rural person in Ontario and the Maritimes anyway do care about whats going on. They did anyway with Hay West. Its the LIBERAL government of Eastern Canada and Quebec that don't give a damn.

The whole western Canadian economy is going in the tubes because Mr L (Which way do I wear my hair today) Vanclief thought it prudent to tell the world about our Mad Cow. Next time Lyle............ Shoot, Shovel and SHUT up! Not only has that single cow hurt the cattle industry, but also the sheep industry that many of us got into to DIVERSIFY! Those of us that still have hogs after the price went in the can in 1998 and 2002 will also see the price crash again Big Time when Maple Leaf and the rest try to get rid of all the good beef.

Our government in Ottawa is more concerned about Bombardier, once again because its in Quebec. I;m not sure what the answer is but I do know that I have chores to do............ We have cattle, hogs and sheep, feed our own crops. The unfortunate thing about diversification is that all bad news Does affect us.

[kato]

Wouldn't it be nice not to need a plan B? I personally would like the CFIA to continue their search for the origin of the cow. Problems could very well just disappear if they found it. I am still not convinced that every avenue was pursued.

Maybe they should turn it over to people who have the time and determination to "just keep looking". It should be looked at from the perspective of a detective, or investigational reporter, not government.

Questions I would like answered.
1. Are they SURE they found every imported animal back in 1993 when they did the cull of imported cattle?
2. Have they tried to trace all those American cows that made their way from feedlots to our cow herd? I think they should at least try.
3. Does the fact that they can't connect this cow to any herdmates through DNA seem funny to you? It tells me that there needs to be more investigation.

[Bruce14]

I have no doubt that the "average" rural eastern resident has sympathy and some understanding for the BSE crisis.

What about the city people. Are they seeing any drop in pricing at all? Are there any specials being run in the restaraunts or is there simply still to much foreign beef being brought in?

Yes in western Canada we are seeing reduced pricing popping up here and there but it has to happen in the major eastern centres where the population is.